摩根大通：AI交易进入消化期，资本开支对利率敏感度上升
AI Trade Is in 'Digestion' Phase, JPMorgan's Sundar Says
I think the interesting thing right now is that the market is trying to price two different trades at the same time. In our view, one, we're kind of in the middle of this AI financing and infrastructure buildout, where a lot of the money so far, trillions of dollars have been put to work in terms of building out the infrastructure that's needed, whether that's the data centers, whether that's the power that's needed or whether that's the chips that are needed, because we're still in a compute constrained economy kind of mid innings there.
我认为现在有趣的一点是，市场正试图同时为两种不同的交易定价。我们认为，一方面，我们正处于人工智能融资和基础设施建设的中间阶段，迄今为止已有数万亿美元投入工作，用于建设所需的基础设施，无论是数据中心、所需的电力还是所需的芯片，因为我们仍处于算力受限经济的半程阶段。
The second trade that the market is trying to price is what ultimately is going to be the impact of integrating artificial intelligence and the technology and the improvements that we see there into companies and sectors that are outside of technology and that we're still earning early innings. So in our view, we're in a digestion period right now on the AI front, we're going to expect to see at least over the near-term volatility.
市场试图定价的第二个交易是，最终将人工智能技术及其我们看到的技术和改进措施整合到非科技行业和部门中会产生何种影响，而我们在这方面仍处于早期阶段。因此，我们认为，在人工智能方面，我们目前正处于消化期，预计短期内会出现波动。
But the biggest thing for us is over the long run, we're still constructive on it. We would actually start to lean more into some of the integration in the application layer of artificial intelligence. We don't think that the spending in that area is going to go down. We think that the neutral rate for the economy is different than what the neutral rate and the restrictive rate is for these hyperscalers, and the amount of CapEx that's going to come, that's probably a little bit higher.
但对我们来说，最重要的是从长远来看，我们仍然持建设性态度。我们实际上会开始更多地侧重于人工智能应用层的一些整合。我们认为该领域的支出不会减少。我们认为经济的中性利率与这些超大规模企业（hyperscalers）的中性利率和限制性利率不同，即将出现的资本支出（CapEx）规模可能略高一些。
I think a lot of the CapEx that we're seeing right now, it's going to take significantly higher rates to stop that type of investment. But where that investment in spending is going to go might start to shift. I think we started to see a lot of investment on the CapEx side, on the frontier model side of what people are forgetting. Similar to what we've seen in prior tech cycles like cloud or even the mobile buildout, is that it's not just the individual model that's probably going to end up winning out.
我认为我们现在看到的许多资本支出，需要显著更高的利率才能阻止这类投资。但投资和支出的流向可能会开始发生变化。我认为人们开始忽视前沿模型方面的资本支出投资。这与我们在之前的科技周期（如云计算甚至移动基础设施建设）中所看到的情况类似，即最终胜出的可能不仅仅是单个模型。
It's a system that is going to be built around that. So the security like cybersecurity and trying to ensure that like data security and proprietary data sets are built around these models, that's probably where the moat is going to be. So that CapEx spend whether where there's a current higher rates I think so continue at what at what point does that does that end? And are you seeing that shift, do you think in the intermediary.
围绕该模型构建的是一个系统。因此，网络安全等安全措施，以及确保数据安全和专有数据集围绕这些模型建立，这可能是护城河所在之处。所以，无论当前利率高低，资本支出是否会继续？在什么情况下这种支出会结束？你是否看到了这种转变，你认为这种转变发生在中期吗？
We're seeing a slight shift in terms of the CapEx on where we see yields of 5% that is leading to slightly different allocations around the CapEx stories. That's happening now. Yep. What level? What level of rates? So where is that happening and what level of rates derails the story completely for CapEx? I think that if we ended up starting to like right now, even if you're starting to see financing either in the public market or in the private market side, there are like some data centers and some financing activity that's happening at 8% rates, 9% rates, 10% rates, and they're still being issued.
我们观察到资本支出（CapEx）方面出现轻微转变，目前我们看到收益率达到5%的情况，这导致围绕资本支出主题的配置略有不同。这种情况正在发生。是的。是什么水平？利率处于什么水平？也就是说，这种情况发生在哪里，以及利率达到什么水平会彻底破坏资本支出的故事？我认为，如果我们现在开始关注，即使你看到在公开市场或私募市场开始出现融资，有一些数据中心和融资活动正在以8%、9%、10%的利率进行，并且这些融资仍在发行。
That debt is still being issued. Spreads. We've already started to see widen out and some of the hyperscale or CapEx in the hyperscale or issuance that we've seen on the investment grade side, I still think that we have room to go. I think the separate question that is also interesting is what volatility in the long end of the curve or what volatility in rates is ultimately going to mean from an investor perspective outside of artificial intelligence and how you build portfolios for this next cycle.
这些债务仍在发行。利差。我们已经看到利差开始走阔，对于我们在投资级方面看到的超大规模企业或超大规模资本支出/发行，我认为我们仍有上升空间。另一个同样有趣的问题是，从投资者角度来看，曲线长端的波动性或利率波动最终意味着什么，这与人工智能无关，而是关于如何为下一个周期构建投资组合。
And that I think is a fundamental shift because especially if you're starting to see volatility in the longer end of the curve, the core fixed income allocations within people's clients portfolios and our clients portfolios, we've obviously there's a role for core fixed income. We all know that in terms of hedging against economic growth risks. But the biggest risk that we have on the table right now, outside of the amount of issuances coming from EI, is related to inflation, and that in core fixed income is not going to protect you against that.
我认为这是一个根本性的转变，因为特别是如果你开始看到曲线长端出现波动性，客户投资组合和我们客户投资组合中的核心固定收益配置，显然核心固定收益有其作用。我们都清楚它在对冲经济增长风险方面的作用。但眼下我们面临的最大风险，除了来自EI的大量发行外，与通货膨胀有关，而核心固定收益无法为你提供针对该风险的防护。
That's where real assets, infrastructure, transport, those types of assets are going to come into play. And it's been an area despite the amount of hype around I build out, that investors are still under allocated to.
这正是实物资产、基础设施、交通等类型资产发挥作用的地方。尽管围绕AI建设存在大量炒作，但这仍然是投资者配置不足的领域。
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