美债10年期收益率突破5% 半导体板块受挫
US 10-Year Yield Tops 5%, AI Slowdown Concerns Hit Chipmakers
美债收益率破5%是宏观关键信号，叠加油价高位与科技股调整，直接影响全市场定价与流动性预期，建议密切关注央行表态与债市拍卖结果。
THIS IS THE ASIA TRADE. I AM SHERY AHN IN TOKYO. THE TOP STORIES THIS HOUR. ASIA'S AI THOUGHTS RACING FURTHER PRESSURE AS PRESIDENT TRUMP INTENSIFIES A TAX ON INDUSTRY LEADERS, CALLING FOR A TECHNOLOGICAL SLOW HE IS LABELING SAFETY WARNINGS A CONSPIRACY AND HOAX. THE U.S. 10 YEAR YIELD BRIEFLY TOPPING 5% AHEAD OF THE FED DECISION. INFLATION WORRIES MOUNTING WITH BRENT CRUDE ABOUT $105 A BARREL. BANK OF AMERICA LEADS LOSSES FOR U.S.
这里是亚洲贸易频道。我是驻东京的谢丽·安。本小时头条新闻：随着特朗普总统加强对行业领导人的征税并呼吁技术放缓，亚洲的人工智能发展面临进一步压力；他称安全警告为阴谋和骗局。美联储决议前，美国10年期收益率短暂突破5%。通胀担忧加剧，布伦特原油约105美元/桶。美国银行领涨跌幅。
LENDERS AS THE CEO LOWERS EXPECTATIONS ON TRADING REVENUE. WE WILL HEAR FROM BRIAN IN A FEW MINUTES. -- BRIAN MOYNIHAN IN A FEW MINUTES. HAIDI: WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THESE ASIAN CHIP STOCKS AND THE SELLOFF IN CHIPMAKERS TRACKING DOWN STOCKS AS THE LEADER'S PROPOSED SLOWING THE TECHNOLOGIES DEVELOPMENT BUT WE ALSO HAVE THE STRONG PUSH BACK AND AGAIN, UNUSUAL TYPE OF PUSHBACK FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP AS WELL TO BEING WAKE -- TO BE WAITING THERE.
贷款机构因首席执行官下调交易收入预期而下跌。我们将在几分钟后听到布莱恩——布莱恩·莫尼汉将在几分钟后发言。海迪：我们继续密切关注这些亚洲芯片股以及芯片制造商股票的下行抛售，因为领导人提议减缓技术发展，但我们也有强烈的反对意见，而且来自特朗普总统的这种反对方式也很不寻常——正在等待那里。
WE HEARD FROM THE ANTHROPIC HEAD PROPOSING THE SLOWDOWN OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME OF THE MOST ADVANCED SYSTEM TO PREVENT AI FROM SLIPPING BEYOND HUMAN CONTROL AND INFLICTING HARM. A LOT OF HEATED DEBATE HAPPENING AT THE MOMENT AND WE ALSO SAW THAT REPORT BEING RELEASED FROM MICROSOFT AI RESEARCHERS WITH THESE GUIDING TENANTS THAT PLACE LIMITS ON THE COMPANY'S DEVELOPMENT OF ITS CUTTING AI MODELS AS WELL. PEOPLE MATTER MORE THAN AI.
我们听到了Anthropic负责人的声音，他提议减缓一些最先进系统的发展，以防止人工智能脱离人类控制并造成伤害。目前正在进行大量激烈的辩论，我们还看到微软AI研究人员发布了这份指南，其中包含限制公司开发其尖端AI模型的指导原则。人比AI更重要。
THAT DEBATE CONTINUES TO GROW ACROSS MARKETS AND IN THE MEANTIME, SEEING THE CONTINUED DOWNSIDE. THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX DOWN BY CLOSE TO 6% AND WE ARE GOING TO SEE THAT THROUGH TO THE ASIAN SESSION TODAY TO TRACK THE U.S. SELLOFF. CHICAGO NIKKEI FUTURES LOOKING PRETTY MUTED AT THE MOMENT. SWITCHING OUT THE BOARD AND OF COURSE THE OTHER KEY WORRY REMAINS ELEVATED OIL PRICES AS WELL AS THAT 5% LEVEL FOR THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD.
这场辩论在市场中持续升温，与此同时，我们看到持续的下跌。半导体指数下跌近6%，我们将在今日亚洲时段跟踪这一走势，以观察美国的抛售情况。芝加哥日经期货目前表现相当平淡。切换话题，当然另一个关键担忧仍然是高企的油价以及10年期国债收益率的5%水平。
REALLY THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2023 THESE INFLATION WORRIES, AS SHERY MENTIONED, JUST CONTINUE TO PUSH HIGHER. LATER EASING A LITTLE BIT BUT STILL, THE 5% LEVEL REMAINS A LINE IN THE SAND IN TERMS OF THE SENTIMENT WE ARE SEEING IN THESE MARKETS. BRENT CRUDE AS WELL AS NEW YORK TRADED CRUDE BOTH OVER $100 A BARREL AT THIS POINT. SAUDI FLOWS REMAIN IN FOCUS WITH THAT CLOSED PIPELINE THAT WAS THE BYPASS FOR THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.
正如谢丽提到的，这自2023年以来首次出现通胀担忧，它们继续推高。稍后有所缓解，但就我们在这些市场中看到的情绪而言，5%的水平仍然是一条不可逾越的红线。布伦特原油和纽约原油期货在此时均超过100美元/桶。沙特管道流量仍受关注，该关闭的管道曾是霍尔木兹海峡的替代路线。
OUR BLOOMBERG AND I STRATEGIST, MARK CRANFIELD, JOINS US NOW. A LOT OF THE THEMES SHARPENING. THE YIELD PRESSURE, THE ENERGY MARKET PRESSURE, THE HEATED DEBATE OVER THE FUTURE OF AI. WHAT DO YOU THINK MATTERS THE MOST AT THE MOMENT OR IS IT REALLY THIS CONFLUENCE OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS? MARK: PROBABLY THE DISTURBING THING FOR INVESTORS IS BEGINNING TO FEEL A LITTLE BIT LIKE MARCH WHERE NOTHING IS CORRELATED. EVERYTHING HAS GOT ITS OWN DIRECTION.
我们的彭博和I策略师马克·克兰菲尔德现在加入我们。许多主题正在变得尖锐：收益率压力、能源市场压力，以及围绕人工智能未来的激烈辩论。你认为目前最重要的是什么，还是说这真的是所有这些因素的汇聚？马克：对投资者来说最令人不安的事情是开始感觉有点像三月，当时没有任何资产是相关的。每样东西都有自己的方向。
TYPICALLY, YOU WOULD THINK GOVERNMENT BONDS SERVE AS A HEDGE AGAINST EQUITY MARKETS. THAT BROKE DOWN WHEN THE U.S.-IRAN CONFLICT STARTED IN MARCH, BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AGAIN NOW. THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGN THAT GOVERNMENT BONDS ARE ACTING AS ANY KIND OF HEDGE AGAINST THE BIG PORTFOLIOS YOU HAVE IN EQUITIES AND OTHER MARKETS. THAT'S A PRETTY DISTURBING FEATURE. YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT THE INDEX DROPPING HIM OVERNIGHT AND THAT IS A WARNING SIGN FOR WHAT WE CAN EXPECT IN ASIA TODAY.
通常，你会认为政府债券可以作为股市的对冲工具。当三月份美伊冲突开始时，这种关系破裂了，现在又开始出现破裂的迹象。没有明确的迹象表明政府债券正在充当你持有的股票和其他市场中大型投资组合的任何形式的对冲。这是一个相当令人不安的特征。你谈论的是指数在一夜之间暴跌，这是我们对今天亚洲市场预期的一个警告信号。
THE JAPANESE COMPANY IS TALKING ABOUT RAISING A LARGE AMOUNT OF MONEY IN U.S. MARKETS. THE TIMING COULD NOT HAVE BEEN WORSE. BECAUSE OF ALL THE AI THEMES YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT. PEOPLE ARE CONCERNED AND THERE COULD BE A SLOWDOWN IN THE SPENDING REALLY, MORE SO THAN THE TECHNOLOGY SIDE. PEOPLE ARE MOST CONCERNED THAT THE HYPERSCALERS ARE NOT GOING TO BE RAMPING UP SPENDING AS MUCH AS THEY WERE EXPECTED TO DO SO AND THAT WILL BE A DAMPENING EFFECT ON THE MARKET THERE.
这家日本公司正计划在美股市场筹集大量资金。时机再糟糕不过了。由于你提到的所有AI主题。人们感到担忧，支出可能会放缓，与其说是技术方面，不如说是其他方面。人们最担心的是超大规模云服务商不会像预期那样增加支出，这将对那里的市场产生抑制作用。
THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT WANTING TO RAISE MONEY AND THAT REALLY IS DREADFUL FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF INVESTORS THAT SOMEBODY WOULD COME IN AND TAKE A LARGE CHUNK OF MONEY OUT OF THE MARKET WHICH IS ALREADY DECLINING. THAT TYPICALLY DOES NOT GET A GOOD RESPONSE SO YOU MAY WELL SEE JAPANESE TECH STOCKS UNDERPERFORMING THE REST OF THE MARKET TODAY IN ASIA. THOSE THINGS ARE COMING TOGETHER. INVESTORS ARE CONCERNED. CENTRAL-BANK MEETINGS AND ASSETS DIVERGING.
他们谈论想要筹集资金，从投资者的角度来看，这确实非常可怕，因为有人会在市场已经下跌的时候进来拿走一大块资金。这通常不会得到好的反应，所以你很可能看到日本科技股在今天亚洲市场的表现落后于其他板块。这些因素正在汇聚。投资者感到担忧。央行会议和资产走势分化。
NOT A GREAT RECIPE FOR ANYBODY THAT WANTS TO TAKE RISK IN THE MARKET AT THE MOMENT. SHERY: PARTICULARLY WITH THESE INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, IT'S REALLY BUILDING IN BOND MARKETS. DOES THIS HEIGHTEN IF NOT THE RISK OF POLICY MISTAKE FROM THE FOMC OR FROM THE BOJ AT LEAST THE RISK OF POLICY MISINTERPRETATION PERHAPS FROM THESE MARKETS? MARK: THAT CERTAINLY PLAYS A HUGE ROLE IN WHAT THEY ARE PROJECTING BECAUSE INVESTORS AT THIS MOMENT ARE LOOKING FOR SOME KIND OF REASSURANCE.
对于任何此刻想在市场上承担风险的人来说，这都不是一个好配方。谢丽：特别是随着这些通胀预期在债券市场中不断累积，这是否加剧了美联储或日本银行政策失误的风险，或者至少增加了这些市场对政策的误读风险？马克：这确实在他们的预测中扮演着巨大角色，因为此时的投资者正在寻求某种 reassurance（安心/保证）。
THEY WANT TO HEAR FROM THEIR CENTRAL BANKERS THAT EVERYTHING IS UNDER CONTROL. IF THEY RAISE INTEREST RATES, IS FOR GOOD REASONS BECAUSE THEY FEEL THEY CAN GET A HANDLE ON INFLATION. THEY CAN DAMPEN EXPECTATIONS -- EXPECTATIONS. THAT'S NOT THE FEELING INVESTORS AND TRADERS HAVE AT THE MOMENT. THEY FEEL EVERYONE IS ON EDGE AND THE NEXT INCIDENT COULD WELL BE A HIGHER DEGREE OF VOLATILITY, WHETHER IT IS IN BONDS OR IN EQUITIES SO HERE WE GO INTO THESE MEETINGS THIS WEEK.
他们希望从央行官员那里听到一切都在掌控之中的消息。如果提高利率，那是出于充分理由，因为他们认为自己能够控制住通胀。他们可以抑制预期——预期。但这并不是目前投资者和交易员的感觉。他们感到人人自危，下一个事件很可能带来更高程度的波动性，无论是在债券市场还是股票市场，因此我们即将进入本周的这些会议。
PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR REASSURANCE WHICH THEY MAY WELL NOT RECEIVE BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE FOR EXAMPLE, KEVIN WARSH DOESN'T LIKE GETTING OUT TOO MUCH INFORMATION. HIS PRESS CONFERENCE IS GOING TO BE A TOUGH ONE BECAUSE HE PROBABLY DOES NOT WANT TO TELL YOU WHERE THE FED IS GOING. THEY MAY WELL RAISE INTEREST RATES THIS WEEK BUT WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO DO IN THE FUTURE? HE WOULD PROBABLY PREFER NOT TO SAY AND YET HE IS DESPERATE FOR SOME KIND OF GUIDANCE ON WHERE THINGS ARE GOING.
人们正在寻求安慰，但他们可能得不到这种安慰，因为如果你以美联储为例，凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）不太愿意透露太多信息。他的新闻发布会将会很艰难，因为他可能不想告诉你美联储的未来走向。他们本周可能会提高利率，但未来他们会怎么做呢？他可能更愿意保持沉默，然而他又迫切地需要某种关于未来走向的指导。
THE BANK OF JAPAN COULD BE SIMILAR BECAUSE THE GOVERNOR TYPICALLY LIKES TO BE VERY NEUTRAL DURING HIS PRESS CONFERENCE AND AGAIN, INVESTORS WILL BE CLAMORING FOR SIGNS THAT THE BOJ HAS GOT IT UNDER CONTROL UNDER THIS EFFICIENT RATE HIKES ALREADY PRICED IN. THAT IS REALLY JUST ADDING TO THE CONFUSION. A COUPLE OF BOND AUCTIONS ARE GOING TO BE REALLY CHALLENGING FOR THE MARKET. U.S. TREASURIES TO FOLLOW AS WELL. IF THOSE DON'T PROCEED SMOOTHLY, THAT WOULD TRIGGER ANOTHER SELLOFF IN GLOBAL BOND MARKETS.
日本银行的情况可能类似，因为行长通常喜欢在新闻发布会上保持非常中立的态度，同样，投资者会急切地寻找迹象，表明日本银行已经控制了局面，而此次加息已被充分定价。这实际上只是加剧了困惑。几场国债拍卖将对市场构成真正挑战。美国国债也将紧随其后。如果这些拍卖不顺利，将引发全球债券市场的另一轮抛售。
EVERYTHING IS STIRRING VERY NICELY HERE. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ONE ACCIDENT WOULD FEED INTO ANOTHER. PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR CIRCUIT BREAKERS. RIGHT NOW, THEY ARE NOT COMING. WHEN YOU GET DISPUTES OVER WHETHER AI SHOULD STOP OR NOT, THAT IS STIRRING THE POT EVEN FURTHER. IT'S A MESSY SITUATION AND SOMEBODY NEEDS TO STEP IN AND SAY CALM DOWN, EVERYBODY. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT AND THEN MARKETS CAN SETTLE DOWN. SHERY: MARK CRANFIELD WITH THE LATEST ON THE MARKETS.
这里的一切都在酝酿着动荡。看起来一个事故会引发另一个事故。人们正在寻找熔断机制。但目前它们并没有出现。当出现关于人工智能是否应该停止的争议时，这进一步搅动了局势。这是一个混乱的局面，有人需要介入并说：大家冷静一下。让我们先审视一下，然后市场才能平息下来。谢丽（Shery）：马克·克兰菲尔德（Mark Cranfield）报道最新市场动态。
WE MAY KNOW EXACTLY WHERE PRESIDENT TRUMP STANDS WHEN IT COMES TO AI REGULATIONS. HIS PUSH BACK AGAINST THE IDEA OF NEW AI GUARD RAILS AND CRITICIZED TECH LEADERS CALL AN INDUSTRYWIDE SLOWDOWN. HE SAYS CONCERNS AROUND AI ARE A HOAX. THAT'S BRING IN OUR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, JEFF MASON. WHY EXACTLY IS THE PRESIDENT SO RESISTANT TO REGULATION FOR AI?
在人工智能监管问题上，我们可能确切知道特朗普总统的立场。他反对设立新的人工智能护栏的想法，并批评科技领袖呼吁行业全面放缓。他说，围绕人工智能的担忧是一场骗局。现在请我们的白宫记者杰夫·梅森（Jeff Mason）报道。为什么总统对人工智能监管如此抗拒？
THE PRESIDENT MADE CLEAR HE SEES THIS AS A COMPETITION AND THE PRESIDENT'S PARADIGM FOR ALL THINGS, POLITICS, BUSINESS, IT DOESN'T MATTER. WINNING. HE IS CONCERNED AND MADE CLEAR HE IS CONCERNED THAT IF THERE IS SOME KIND OF A PULLBACK BECAUSE OF SAFETY OR ANY REASON, THAT THAT WOULD LEAD TO THE UNITED STATES LOSING A COMPETITION WITH CHINA IN THE AI SPACE AND SO THAT IS HOW HE IS FRAMING IT AND AS A RESULT, HE IS USING LANGUAGE LIKE HOAX AND CRITICIZING BASICALLY EVERYONE WHO IS RAISING THESE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE SAFETY OF THE TECHNOLOGY GOING FORWARD.
总统明确表示，他将此视为一场竞争，并且这是他看待所有事务——无论是政治、商业还是其他任何领域——的范式：即追求胜利。他对此表示关切，并明确指出，如果出于安全或其他原因出现某种退缩，这将导致美国在人工智能领域输掉与中国的竞争。因此，他是这样构建这一议题的框架的。结果是，他使用了“骗局”等措辞，基本上批评了所有对技术未来安全性提出质疑的人。
SHERY: CHINA SEEMS TO BE ON THE SAME PAGE. THEY REJECTED THESE AI FEARS AS U.S. FEAR MONGERING. WHAT ARE WE EXPECTING FROM THE SUMMIT?
谢丽（Shery）：中国似乎持相同观点。他们将这些对人工智能的担忧斥为美国的制造恐慌行为。我们对此次峰会有何期待？
MEETING WITH PRESIDENT XI IN THE COMING WEEKS, COMING TO THE WHITE HOUSE FOR A RECIPROCAL VISIT ESSENTIALLY TO WHAT THE PRESIDENT DID WHEN HE WENT TO BEIJING EARLIER THIS YEAR. IT IS UNCLEAR IF AI WILL BE AT THE TOP OF THE AGENDA BUT IT'S HARD TO IMAGINE THEY DO NOT DISCUSS IT AT SOME POINT GIVEN HOW MUCH ATTENTION IT IS GETTING IT RIGHT NOW AND HOW IMPORTANT IT IS FOR BOTH COUNTRIES BUT AGAIN, TO GO BACK TO WHAT I WAS SAYING BEFORE, THE PRESIDENT DOES NOT WANT TO S
在未来几周内与习近平主席会面，随后前往白宫进行回访，这本质上是对应总统今年早些时候访问北京所采取的行动。目前尚不清楚人工智能是否会成为议程的首要议题，但鉴于其当前受到的关注程度以及对两国的重要性，很难想象双方不会在某时讨论该话题。但再次回到我之前所说的内容，总统不希望……
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