美联储加息预期升温，鲍威尔面临市场压力

We're getting set for a big week of central bank action. The Fed, the BOJ, and the Bank of England all set to deliver rate decisions as higher energy prices fuel inflation concerns. Let's bring in Bloomberg MLive's strategist Mark Cranfield for more. Mark, let's start then with the Fed. How much does Friday's inflation print change the setup for this week's meeting? I think for those who hadn't already expected the the Federal Reserve to raise by '25, it pretty much sealed the deal for them.

You saw a whole slew of the sell side firms changing their forecast after that CPI number. They now fully expect to have a rate hike this week. And the Fed now is in an almost impossible situation because their expectations are so high, because of the way that Kevin Walsh spoke at the Jackson Hole conference. If they do not go ahead with an interest rate hike this week, it will probably be more damaging to the market than if they actually do one.

So with it mostly priced in, the course of action we would now expect is they go ahead and they do it. The key part for investors, obviously, is going to be the press conference from Kevin Walsh and how he handles the idea that it is not a one and done situation. He would probably prefer that he gives as little guidance as possible, but that's gonna be very difficult because he's gonna be bombarded with questions saying, well, do you expect more rate hikes down the road considering the oil prices are extremely high?

There's no end in sight to the conflict in The Middle East. And so where is the Fed going to go? And then you would have fresh Fed speakers a few days later as well. So this is not the end of the story. The market is expecting it, and yet we may have a chance of even more volatility depending on how those speakers give the guidance for the next few weeks ahead. Okay. So still an opportunity for perhaps some surprises there from the Fed.

Let's think about the other central bank decisions that we have this week. What are you watching for when it comes to the bank of joint Bank of England and the Bank of Japan on Friday? The Bank of Japan probably has the the easier task of the two. The market is fully expecting a rate hike this week. There's been no pushback from the Japanese authorities. The market is ready for that. They're even thinking that there'll be another one before the end of the year.

And governor Haidi is pretty experienced at using the press conference to try and steer people's thinking on on what will come next in terms of Bank of Japan. The market has probably got that all priced in. There shouldn't be too big a reaction in the Japanese markets. UK is a completely different story because inflation is high, energy costs are still rising, and you have a very important UK budget coming up next month.

The Bank of of England is in a much more difficult job. There've been very strong hints from governor Bailey that they do not want to hike interest rates even though pricing in the market suggests that that is probably the best course of action. So you're gonna have plenty of friction here. They may not do anything this week, and yet they might against their best judgment, they may want to guide the market to say that there is a hike coming up.

But will it be enough? Because we still have to investors have to be convinced that that budget, when it comes up in October, is gonna be the right mix of spending and cutbacks that The UK needs to see to get its house back in order. The long end of the gilt market is likely to be pretty volatile. The Bank of England will have a job controlling it, and then it will feed into where the budget is going. Whatever happens, you can expect a steeper yield curve and a lot of volatility in the pound as well.