Anthropic与OpenAI拟放缓AI模型研发，市场关注中美竞争与资本开支

Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. [music] This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m. Eastern on [music] Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch [music] us live on YouTube. We know if somebody knows about this tech space here, Dan Ies, he's a partner. Yorkville, Ives and company. So, here's a top story on the Bloomberg terminal.

Anthropic and Open AI are promising measures to reign in the pursuit of cuttingedge AI models to better understand the risk posed by the technology. Dan, I'm not sure I saw this coming. I'm not sure the market saw this coming. What do you make of it? Yeah, look, I mean, I think there's a few ways to to sort of dissect it. One, this is a step in the right direction relative to safety because it's our view self-regulation is going to be the ultimate path.

But, you know, call it regulatory capture when you see calls in the beltway looking for more and more regulatory. Ultimately, Open AI, Anthropic, they they took it by themselves and said, "Okay, we're going to ultimately start to now say that there should be a slowdown." But the reality is China's not slowing down. And if China doesn't slow down, this is all words because US tech's not going to slow down. I think that is what investors are trying to navigate to understand what's real versus essentially just more talk.

This is coming from the companies themselves, Dan. And presumably they have a lot more knowledge than I do, than Tom does, than most folks out there do. I think a lot of folks out there are just saying a even before this talk over the last week or so, we really didn't know the risk associated with AI. Now, if these folks are telling us to put on the brakes, how do you think this plays out? Look, I think part of the problem is that you can take the elevator to the penthouse and then stop the elevator so others can't come.

So there is a competitive issue here, right? Where especially when you think about sovereign AI, a lot of the stuff Palanteer and others are doing I think that that will be I think investors will view it skeptically relative to open AI and anthropic.

Two, this is not stopping one penny of money. that's going into the data center and the AI capex and I think that right you'll have a knee-jerk reaction in terms of stocks but as investors digest it the reality is China's not slowing down US tax not going to slow down

good morning across America the commitment of our guests to get up early Daniel Ives

killing it out of Los Angeles at a way too early hour is is well I want you to fold in here Dan over the weekend I was deep into AI

you know should the cook should the turkey be cooked to 330 or 340. You know, Dan, I I look at um AI and all I can think of is the Chinese. I got a massively split Washington, but I have a China with one plan. With all of your tech experience, is this just simply the dawning reality of China with a cheaper, better distribution product that's not quite as good? Yeah, I'd say that as well as China having a government that's trying to pour gasoline on this to to really accelerate them rather than maybe the opposite that's happened in the US.

I because because for the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech. You don't want people in the beltway that are still using Blackberries to then regulate that AI. Then when you talk about anthropic and open AI, it comes down to like these companies are essentially the top of the mountain. Do they want others not to come up? And that that that's where the the industry is going to be.

Well, Paul was too kind on how dumb I am. Uh that was an accurate statement. But all the smart people I talked to, Dan Ives, are adamant they don't know where we are in six months. Dan, let's go narrow. Where are we in six weeks? Are we just going to see a new Claude, a new chat this, the chat that? I mean, are we just going to just grind forward here?

Tom, I I think it's also the models over time will become more commoditized. The values in the data the and you're seeing that you you talk about like software companies, I talk about what's happening cyber security, infrastructure, you're now going to the second, third, fourth derivative because of the trillions of dollars being spent. Claude where you see Chad GBT those models are going to continue to get better and better but it's about the data that's why sovereign AI Nvidia Palunteers talked about that front and center that ultimately is really the golden goose

hey Dan whenever I see a kind of a graphic of the global AI ecosystem I see Nvidia right smack in the middle of it what is Jensen Juan saying about these big big picture issues

I mean Jen and I think Jensen's talked He's going to say the bar's worse in the bite. The industry has put is start has put the safety sort of guard rails in. But look at the hugging acquisition that they did. You you talking about open source. It comes down to you have to distinguish between the core frontier model players versus what's happened the rest of the industry. And I think Jensen, Nadella, if you saw what he talked about over the weekend, George from Crowd Strike, those are much more, I think, realistic and I think very good like words of wisdom relative to maybe some of the, you know, kind of fire in a crowd theater type of uh conversation.

Dan, thanks so much. Got to have you on again here soon to talk about what matters Apple and all that uh into Q4 and into the Q3 earnings season as well. Daniel's yman's duty way too early in the morning here on this tech uh blow up. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 7 to 10:00 a.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live on YouTube.

I think we need a briefing. Lori Kelcina joins us uh right now with RBC Capital Markets. Lori, within your really important, dense statistical Excel spreadsheet research, which distinction stands out right now? So, I would say in my work, Tom, there's a clear line between sort of where we are right now on the 10-year and what's being priced in in terms of hikes, which is, you know, about three hikes over the next 12 months.

Um, our our rates team is still forecasting tenure yields are going to stay below 5% over the next, you know, over the next 12 months. That seems to be like what equities can handle. It wouldn't necessarily be pleasant. I'm not saying we wouldn't have a short-term draw down, but when I look out on a 12-month view, the market looks okay. Um, but if we sort of take things up to say six hikes, if we take inflation closer to 4% than 3%, and if we, you know, kind of model in 5 a.5% on the 10-year yield, then we start to see some real damage done to equities on a year-over-year basis.

So, I think we're at a sort of a critical juncture right now. And my modeling says, you know, as Blake Gwen, our rate strategist, put it, he's expecting three kind of adjustment hikes um over the next three meetings. I think equities can handle that, right? But we are kind of pushing up against the ceiling of what they can handle.

Paul's screening in real time a headline again I I I'm just not capable to translate this. Nvidia, Palunteer, Booze Allen to limit anthropic model use

that from the information.

This is this is

and it's moves the market. Nvidia breaking down to new intraday lows. Yeah.

Futures were 51 and 58. Futures now61. I have a VIX out two big figures.

Yep. Lori, what's the view? How do you think about earnings? They've been so so strong for the first half of the year. if nothing else, comps are going to make it really tough going forward. How do you kind of think about earnings as a continued driver of this market?

So, I you know, I would