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特朗普提5000美元分红应对通胀,共和党面临中期选举压力

Rising Costs Test Republicans Ahead of Midterms

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聚焦特朗普“5000美元分红”政策提议及其财政可行性,直击中期选举核心矛盾(通胀与成本),对宏观政策预期有重要参考价值。

I'm tempted to ask how much the papers in London this morning are dealing with what president Trump said yesterday in Ireland about the prospects of Irish unification. But let me take a broader vantage on sort of this trip. You have president Trump going to Dallas. All of this... All of these festivities that took place there, thinking that that might mount to some momentum here going to the midterms, and then, he hops on a plane, goes to Ireland to play some golf, and meet with the leaders of of that country.

我忍不住想问,伦敦今早的报纸都在报道特朗普总统昨天在爱尔兰关于爱尔兰统一前景的讲话吗?但让我从一个更宏观的角度来看待这次行程。你看到特朗普总统去了达拉斯。所有这一切……在那里举行的所有这些庆祝活动,让人以为这可能会为即将到来的中期选举积累一些势头,然后,他登上飞机,前往爱尔兰打高尔夫球,并与该国的领导人会面。

What what do you make of that, and what does it say about the purpose of this convention that just wrapped up to you? Ann Ann suggested reunification of Ireland while he was here, which has been a, needless to say, a decades long hot button issue that he just stepped into the middle, without, I think, a lot of thought. Let's talk about the... You know, him... You know, his appearance at the at the convention. I I don't think, actually, most Republicans wanted him there because he's polling so low.

你怎么看待这一点,以及这对刚刚结束的这次大会的目的有何启示?安·安在他在这里期间提出了爱尔兰统一的问题,这不用说,是一个几十年来备受争议的话题,而他只是贸然介入其中,我认为他并没有经过太多深思熟虑。我们来谈谈……你知道,他……你知道,他在大会上的亮相。实际上,我认为大多数共和党人并不希望他去,因为他的支持率这么低。

The issues that they're gonna have to campaign against are issues that he set in motion through a series of cell phones, David. First, the tariffs, and now, obviously, the war in Iran have all been inflationary actions that were within his powers to avoid. And average Americans are now struggling with escalating electricity bills, escalating food prices, gas prices, and an uncertainty about the job outlook. And, inflation doesn't appear to be abating.

他们将在竞选中反对的问题,正是通过一系列手机(指社交媒体帖子)由大卫你提到的那些问题引发的。首先,关税,以及现在显然的伊朗战争,都是在他职权范围内本可避免的通胀行为。普通美国人现在正努力应对不断上涨的电费、食品价格、汽油价格以及对就业前景的不确定性。而且,通胀似乎并未缓解。

In fact, it appears to be worsening. All of these things are not great campaign issues, and I think he made the convention about himself. And I also don't think that's what the party was looking for. And I think it's a, you know, it's a barometer of the extent to which I think Trump continues to be in this for himself rather than for the party or rather than for constructive solutions to the problems the country and average voters are facing.

事实上,它似乎在恶化。所有这些都不是很好的竞选议题,我认为他把大会变成了以他个人为中心的活动。我也认为这不是政党所期望的。我认为这是一个晴雨表,表明我认为特朗普继续是为了他自己,而不是为了政党,也不是为了为国家面临的普通选民所面临的问题提供建设性的解决方案。

You know, I actually think the convention was a successful coming out party for JD Vance. Uh-huh. But Trump eclipsed even that to a certain measure. Julie, I wanna ask you about some of those problems that I know some of the staff behind the scenes would really like the president to focus on. We have an affordability crisis in this country. It's something voters say over and over again they're thinking about as they go to vote in these midterms.

你知道吗,我实际上认为这次大会是JD万斯的成功的亮相派对。嗯哼。但在某种程度上,特朗普甚至超越了这一点。朱莉,我想问你一些我知道幕后工作人员非常希望总统关注的问题。我们国家正面临一场负担能力危机。这是选民们在参加这些中期选举投票时反复表示正在考虑的事情。

And I know one of the things driving up costs, of course, are some Tim just mentioned, energy prices. And you spoke to former Texas attorney general now turned candidate Ken Paxton about data centers. We're gonna place some of that sound. So I think it's a good idea to to slow this down so that we we can listen to our to our constituents. I mean, obviously, we have to compete against China. If we don't have data centers, we're in trouble.

我知道推高成本的因素之一,当然,正如蒂姆刚才提到的,是能源价格。你就数据中心的问题采访了前德克萨斯州总检察长、现任候选人肯·帕克斯顿。我们将播放其中一段录音。所以我认为放慢速度是个好主意,这样我们才能倾听我们选民的声音。我的意思是,显然我们必须与中国竞争。如果我们没有数据中心,我们就麻烦了。

We're gonna we're gonna be in trouble with with China. So there's no doubt we have to figure out how to do it, but we have to listen to our constituents and figure out where do we do these and how do we protect the people in that area from any negative consequences. So AI and data centers in particular have really become a political issue over... Even just, like, the last couple weeks. What do people in Texas tell you about this issue, and then what did you hear about this at the convention throughout the week?

如果中国没有数据中心,我们会陷入困境。所以毫无疑问,我们必须想办法做到这一点,但我们必须倾听选民的意见,弄清楚我们在哪里建设这些设施,以及如何保护该地区的人们免受任何负面影响。因此,人工智能和数据中心尤其已成为一个政治议题……就在过去几周里。德克萨斯州的人们告诉你关于这个问题的看法是什么,然后你在整个会议期间听到了什么?

Well, first of all, it's very interesting, Ken Paxton, coming out and saying, hey. We gotta tap the brakes on this. This is what this is what we're hearing from governor Abbott as well. Governor Abbott, who was all about the data centers bringing them in. But now he too is saying that there needs to be certain parameters when data centers come somewhere, when it comes to water, and when it comes to power. There's definitely a not in my backyard issue here because we have so many data centers in the state of Texas.

首先,肯·帕克斯顿站出来呼吁踩刹车,这非常有趣。这也是我们从阿博特州长那里听到的。阿博特州长原本大力支持将数据中心引入德州。但现在他也表示,当数据中心落户时,在水资源和电力方面需要设定一定的参数。这里确实存在“不要在我家后院”(NIMBY)的问题,因为德克萨斯州拥有如此多的数据中心。

But at the end of the day, what these voters are going to have to figure out is, is this their top issue? Is their top issue what they view as lower taxes? Is their top issue what they view as health? So it'll be interesting to see how big of a data center issue this becomes when people actually walk in to vote. Tim O'Brien, in the American Airlines Center, have president Trump on stage, and almost off the cuff floats this idea of a Trump dividend, not the first time he's he's suggested he might send a check to to all Americans.

但最终,选民们必须弄清楚的是,这是他们的首要问题吗?他们眼中的首要问题是降低税收吗?还是健康问题?所以当人们真正走进投票站时,看看数据中心问题会变得多么重要将会很有趣。蒂姆·奥布莱恩在美国航空中心,特朗普总统在台上,几乎即兴地提出了“特朗普红利”的想法,这不是他第一次暗示可能会给所有美国人寄支票。

I was struck in the wake of that, how members of his administration not only defended that as a real policy proposal, but kind of contorted themselves to explain how it might happen. Had Howard Lettin saying this wouldn't be paid for by taxpayers. You had Kevin Hasset come on Bloomberg TV and talk about the mechanics of offering this $5,000 check to to American adult citizens. What does that tell you about the the the way that the president is looking at this affordability crisis?

在那之后,我注意到他的政府成员不仅捍卫了这一政策提议的真实性,还绞尽脑汁解释它可能如何实现。霍华德·莱廷说这不会由纳税人买单。凯文·哈塞特出现在彭博电视上,谈论向美国成年公民提供5000美元支票的机制。这告诉你总统如何看待这一负担能力危机吗?

Well, I I I think it suggests that members of his administration are simply worried about losing their jobs, David, and so they don't dare deviate from something that he put out so publicly and prominently. I don't think any of them believes in their hearts it's going to work. It won't get past the congress. It would cost more than about $1,300,000,000,000 to carry out. There's far better uses of that money than simply giving every American a $5,000 check.

嗯,我认为这表明他的政府成员只是担心丢掉工作,大卫,所以他们不敢偏离他公开且高调提出的方案。我不认为他们中的任何人在内心深处相信这会奏效。它无法通过国会。实施成本将超过约1.3万亿美元。这笔钱有更更好的用途,而不是简单地给每个美国人发一张5000美元的支票。

And I also don't think that most Americans would feel like a $5,000 freebie, welcome as it might be, is going to set them up for a more prosperous or affordable future in which they feel authentically independent financially and in control of their family's futures financially. So it's a stunt. I think he's been involved in a lot of stunts lately of various proportions, that are sort of hail Mary passes meant to deal with the affordability issue.

而且我也不认为大多数美国人会觉得5000美元的免费赠送(尽管令人欢迎)能让他们为更繁荣或负担得起的未来做好准备,从而在财务上真正独立并掌控家庭的未来。所以这是一场作秀。我认为他最近参与了许多各种规模的作秀,这些举措类似于绝望中的一搏,旨在应对可负担性问题。

The idea of, you know, flipping a light switch in Venezuela, and suddenly the oil fields there will begin producing more more oil, and that will somehow ameliorate, the oil production problem caused by the Strait Of Hormuz being closed, is all of a fit with this. He's not a... He he is... The president has repeatedly said Americans should just get over their affordability concerns, but it's now costing him at the polls, so he's trying to do something at the last minute.

你知道,在委内瑞拉拨动开关,突然那里的油田开始生产更多石油,从而以某种方式缓解因霍尔木兹海峡关闭而导致的石油生产问题,这与这种做法如出一辙。他不是……他是……总统反复表示美国人应该克服对可负担性的担忧,但这现在正在影响他在民意调查中的支持率,所以他试图在最后时刻做点什么。

Julie, I mean, it's tried at this point, but James Carville, it's the economy, stupid. When you look at what people say is the most important problem, 22% say the most important issue facing The US is the economy, followed by democracy, followed by corruption, violence, and war is down at 5%. We talked so much about the unpopularity of this war in Iran. A lot of us were wondering how the president was going to spin that, couch it at this, forum, Trumpapalooza, during the week.

朱莉,我的意思是,这一点已经尝试过了,但正如詹姆斯·卡维尔所说,笨蛋,是经济。当你看看人们认为最重要的问题时,22%的人说美国面临的最重要问题是经济,其次是民主,然后是腐败、暴力和战争降至5%。我们谈论了这场伊朗战争的极不得人心。我们许多人都在想知道总统将如何在这一周的论坛“特朗普嘉年华”(Trumpapalooza)上对此进行粉饰和包装。

Did they focus on that at all? What were the big top lines, and what do you think landed best, if anything, with voters or people who were in the room? I will say that the war was talked about, but not much. It was not a huge topic, just that it was the right thing to do and that it's eventually going to end. I I think the one that landed the most in the room was the $5,000. Because at that moment, people aren't thinking, how will this affect the deficit?

他们是否重点讨论了这一点?主要的头条新闻是什么?你认为如果有的话,哪一点最能打动选民或在场的人?我要说的是,战争被提及了,但没怎么深入讨论。它不是一个巨大的话题,只是说这是正确的事,并且最终会结束。我认为在场者感受最深的是5000美元支票。因为在那一刻,人们并没有在想:这会影响赤字吗?

How are we going to pay for it? And there's no discussion there on, oh, but we'll have to get this through congress first. So I think in terms of the room, that's what landed. But you have to remember, this is a room of ardent supporters. This isn't a room of people that are undecided voters in many senses. So most of this landed in the room just fine. It's a question of what landed later. But when you talk about what landed in the room, it's in the room.

我们打算怎么为它买单?对此并没有讨论,比如“哦,但我们得先让国会通过”。所以我认为在房间里的听众看来,这就是结果。但你必须记住,这是一群热情的支持者。从很多方面来说,这并非一群 undecided voters(未决定投票意向的选民)。因此,大部分内容在房间里都得到了很好的接受。问题在于后续的反应。但当你谈论在房间里产生的影响时,那就是在房间里发生的。

This is on a night where you've got NFL football. You've got a lot of other things going on. So a lot of people like you and I both know, look to this and they'll see this in the social media. They'll see this in the clips later. But in the room, it basically landed as the, oh, we're getting $5,000 back. Tim, I wanna pla

这是一个有 NFL 橄榄球比赛的夜晚。还有很多其他事情在进行。所以很多人,包括你和我在内,都会关注这一点,并在社交媒体上看到它。稍后他们会在剪辑中看到它。但在房间里,大家基本上的反应是“哦,我们要退回 5000 美元了”。蒂姆,我想 pla

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