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伊朗寻求海湾国家支持霍尔木兹海峡共管方案

Iran Seeking Gulf States Support for Hormuz Plan

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地缘冲突直接冲击全球能源咽喉(霍尔木兹+红海),伊朗提出的“海峡共管”新变量可能重塑区域安全架构并推高油价,对宏观流动性、通胀预期及能源资产定价有实质性影响,需密切关注下周外长会议结果。

Overnight, an Iranian commercial vessel was struck off an island in the Strait of Hormuz, killing one and wounding four others. State run Iryna news agency quoted the island's governor as blaming a terrorist enemy. This isn't. It comes as a six member bloc of Gulf states is weighing a meeting with Iranian officials next week to discuss the future of the Strait of Hormuz. For more, we're joined by Bloomberg White House correspondent Skyler Woodhouse and Bloomberg Mideast reporter Dan Williams.

overnight,一艘伊朗商船在霍尔木兹海峡的一座岛屿附近遭到袭击,造成一人死亡、四人受伤。国有伊尔纳通讯社(Iryna)援引该岛总督的话称,这是一名恐怖主义敌人所为。目前尚不清楚具体情况。此事发生之际,一个由六个海湾国家组成的集团正考虑于下周与伊朗官员举行会议,讨论霍尔木兹海峡的未来问题。更多详情,我们连线彭博社白宫记者斯凯勒·伍德豪斯(Skyler Woodhouse)和彭博社中东记者丹·威廉姆斯(Dan Williams)。

Dan, I want to start with you. Can you just update us what we know about the strike in the Gulf overnight? And then is this meeting happening? Who is going? What do we know? These strikes reported in recent hours, one against an Iranian, uh, vessel with one death. According to the Iranian reports, a second craft. Presumably this is being blamed on the Iranian side, as we're talking over the weekend, as we've noted in previous discussions, the details do come out, but they tend to come out rather slowly.

丹,我想先请你开始。你能简要更新一下我们对昨晚海湾地区袭击事件的最新了解吗?此外,这次会议是否还会举行?谁会参加?我们知道些什么?据伊朗方面的报道,最近几小时报告了一起针对伊朗船只的袭击事件,造成一人死亡;另有一艘船只受损。 presumably(推测)伊朗方面正在对此进行指责。正如我们在之前的讨论中所指出的,细节虽然会陆续披露,但往往进展缓慢。

However, this continued bloodshed, the continued violence, uh, has underscored the efforts by the Iranians to pitch to other Gulf Arab countries, including Gulf Arab countries, with which it came to blows in the very recent past past the values of what it says is an emerging deal with Oman for a kind of property share of the Strait of Hormuz. And as you noted, tomorrow, Monday, there is a meeting of Gulf Arab foreign ministers in Muscat.

然而,持续的流血冲突和暴力行为凸显了伊朗向其他海湾阿拉伯国家——包括那些在最近过去与之发生冲突的海湾阿拉伯国家——推销其主张的努力,这些主张涉及其与阿曼达成的某种协议的价值观,即关于霍尔木兹海峡的部分权益共享。正如你提到的,明天(周一),海湾阿拉伯国家外长将在马斯喀特举行会议。

It's not actually clear how many will attend. It has been formally announced. The Iranians say they plan to go there and unveil potentially this plan, this proposal, in hope of bringing those Arab foreign ministers on board. What we know is the Bahrainis, for one, are not planning to attend. They're still upset at the pain they suffered at the hands of Iran during the the high points of this conflict, the height of hostilities.

目前尚不清楚有多少国家将出席。尽管已正式宣布,伊朗方面表示他们计划前往并可能在此次会议上公布这一计划或提案,希望争取这些阿拉伯外长的支持。我们所知的是,巴林方面暂不打算出席。鉴于他们在冲突高潮、敌对行动最激烈阶段遭受伊朗带来的痛苦,他们至今仍感到不满。

Meanwhile, the UAE sent a senior royal, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, to hold a meeting with Iranian presidents this weekend on the sidelines of the BRICs summit in India. There is some kind of context underway. I think it's clear the Iranians are trying to wish into reality a post to U.S. post-Trump reality in the Gulf to argue to fellow stakeholders in the region. It's time to deal with a new reality in which we, Iran, remain in some control of Hormuz.

与此同时,阿联酋派遣了一位高级王室成员、阿布扎比王储,在本周末于印度举行的金砖国家(BRICS)峰会期间,与伊朗总统举行了一次边会会谈。某种背景正在展开。我认为很明显,伊朗正试图将一种后美国、后特朗普的海湾现实强加于人,并向该地区其他利益相关方论证:是时候接受一种新现实了,在这种现实中,伊朗仍对霍尔木兹海峡保持某种控制权。

It's clear that the US would almost certainly oppose this, as well as perhaps some of those Gulf Arab states. It's kind of what house you're traveling with the president. He's on this brief trip to to Ireland? Yes, to play some golf. But he's met with Irish leadership as well. And I'm curious, as you've listened to his remarks, the former ones that he delivered at the ambassador's residence in Dublin, the less formal ones as he's made his way from there to Shannon to to his golf course.

很明显,美国几乎肯定会反对这一点,可能还有一些海湾阿拉伯国家也会反对。这有点像你跟着总统出行时的处境。他正在爱尔兰进行短暂访问?是的,去打高尔夫球。但他也见了爱尔兰的领导层。我很好奇,在你听取了他的讲话后——包括他在都柏林大使官邸发表的正式讲话,以及他从那里前往香农再到高尔夫球场途中较为非正式的讲话——你有什么看法?

How much is this, the wider world intruding on the trip that he's taking right now? I think that there was a lot of conversation here in the States about him making this trip so close to to the midterm elections. But when it comes to the issue of Iran in the Middle East and the path forward, the path to some resolution potentially. Is it something that he's talked much about over the course of these last two days? Yeah.

更广泛的世界事务在多大程度上干扰了他目前的行程?我认为在美国国内有很多关于他如此接近中期选举就进行此次旅行的讨论。但谈到伊朗问题、中东局势以及未来的道路,甚至是一条潜在的解决之路,他在过去两天里是否对此进行了大量讨论?是的。

And look, this trip also comes just a few days after the Republican convention in Dallas, Texas. And now the president is here in, in Ireland to, uh, you know, he did throw in some official meetings and met with, um, the president of Ireland and the Prime minister. Um, but now he is off at his golf property, which is, you know, really where he wanted to go. Um, but yesterday, when speaking with reporters. Um, he did say that the quote the who these called us and they don't want to fight with us.

而且,这次旅行也恰逢德克萨斯州达拉斯共和党全国代表大会结束仅仅几天之后。现在总统来到了爱尔兰,嗯,你知道的,他安排了一些官方会议,会见了爱尔兰总统和总理。嗯,但现在他去到了他的高尔夫地产,那确实是他想去的地方。嗯,但在昨天接受记者采访时,他说,引号“那些打电话给我们的人不想和我们打仗”,引号结束。

Uh, you know, so obviously, you know, Iran and what's happening in the Middle East is still very top of mind. And just because, you know, the president is here, um, to attend this golf tournament, to be at his family's property. Um, you know, there's still obviously a lot of official business, um, that he has to pay attention to and to monitor, especially as, uh, things are not slowing down and only continue to remain pretty volatile, especially as the midterm November's, um, approach and the administration is trying to navigate those higher energy prices and cost of living, um, for Americans.

嗯,你知道,显然,伊朗以及中东发生的事仍然是重中之重。仅仅因为总统来这里是为了参加这场高尔夫锦标赛,在他家族的地产上。嗯,你知道,显然他仍然有许多官方事务需要关注和监控,尤其是当局势并未降温,反而持续保持相当动荡时,特别是随着十一月中期选举的临近,政府正试图应对美国人面临的高能源价格和生活成本问题。

And that also, um, was something that did come up. And here in Ireland, a reporter asked about, um, higher prices, even here in Ireland, and sort of those ripple effects from what is happening in the Middle East. Um, so, so, yeah, look, you know, the president, even though he can go to his chorus, it's still something he has to definitely make sure he's paying attention to. And speaking of higher prices down in India, South Asian countries in particular have been very hard hit by this war because they get so much of their oil through the strait.

而且这也确实是一个被提及的问题。在爱尔兰,一位记者询问了关于价格上涨的问题,即便是在爱尔兰本地,以及从中东局势中产生的种种连锁反应。嗯,所以,是的,你看,总统虽然可以听取他的顾问团队的意见,但这仍然是他必须密切关注的事情。说到印度等地的物价上涨,南亚国家尤其是受到了这场战争的严重冲击,因为它们的大部分石油都通过霍尔木兹海峡运输。

And we saw all these leaders, uh, in India for this BRICs statement. Iranian leaders were there in person, which is we were talking yesterday, different from when the U.S. and a lot of times has has had negotiations with them through intermediaries, and they did release a joint statement that kind of seems to call out the U.S. a little bit at saying we expressed serious concerns over deliberate attacks on civilian infrastructure and peaceful nuclear facilities.

我们看到了所有这些领导人齐聚印度发表金砖国家声明。伊朗领导人亲自出席,正如我们昨天所讨论的,这与美国很多时候通过中间人与其进行谈判的情况不同。他们发布了一份联合声明,似乎在某种程度上点名批评了美国,表示我们对针对民用基础设施和和平核设施的蓄意袭击表达了严重关切。

How frustrated are other Gulf countries with the US, and is this summit and then maybe possibly this follow off meeting in the Middle East, kind of a reflection of that of Gulf allies thinking they can't rely on the U.S. to bring this sort of a close, they're going to have to involve themselves. I think there's definitely frustration. I think there's definitely Concern. Keep in mind that this BRICs summit coincides with some pretty astonishing gains by the houses of Yemen.

其他海湾国家对美国的失望程度如何?这次峰会以及随后可能在中东举行的后续会议,是否在某种程度上反映了海湾盟友认为无法依赖美国来促成此类停火,因此必须亲自介入的想法?我认为肯定存在失望情绪,也肯定存在担忧。请记住,这次金砖国家峰会恰逢也门胡塞武装取得令人震惊的胜利。

This is a an Iranian aligned group. Some have argued it's an Iranian proxy in Yemen. They've effectively now taken over the land up straight. So this war, which began as a US Israeli war in Iran, evolved into a US Iran war over the Strait of Hormuz, now appears to be the war of Two Straights, further cutting down maritime traffic in that part of the world into the Red sea. Further driving up fuel prices. And as Skyler alluded to, Trump is publicly talking about having received messages from the Houthis that they didn't seek a war with the US.

这是一个与伊朗结盟的组织。有些人认为它是伊朗在也门的代理人。他们现在实际上已经控制了陆地领土。因此,这场最初表现为美以对抗伊朗的战争,演变为围绕霍尔木兹海峡的美伊战争,如今似乎变成了“两海峡之战”,进一步减少了该世界地区通往红海的海上交通量,并进一步推高了燃料价格。正如斯凯勒(Skyler)所暗示的那样,特朗普公开表示收到了来自胡塞武装的消息,称他们并不寻求与美国开战。

He may be trying to let the US off. They've been reports that the Saudis have been asking the US to intervene. It's worth remembering the United States did spend seven weeks pummeling the Houthis last year. Apparently the Houthis, whether that well enough to regroup and conquer large swathes of Yemen and establish control of a second waterway, or at least a choke point to that second. Waterway. This would signal the war is not going well for the United States and its allies.

他可能正试图让美国脱身。有报道称沙特一直在要求美国进行干预。值得记住的是,美国去年曾花费七周时间猛烈打击胡塞武装。显然,胡塞武装要么已经足够强大以重组并征服也门大片领土,控制第二条水道,或者至少控制该水道的一个咽喉要道。这将表明战争对美国和其盟友来说并不顺利。

And yes, I think it's understandable that Gulf Arabs will be weighing the next steps. They're not going to openly come out against Trump. It's not part of the political culture, however, and we should be able to get more clarity on this tomorrow, given the attendance, the prominence and the rhetoric of that foreign ministers meeting that may take place in Muscat, and whether the Iranians are engaged fully on their apparent proposal for some kind of share of Hormuz with Oman.

是的,我认为海湾阿拉伯国家权衡下一步行动是可以理解的。他们不会公开反对特朗普。这不符合政治文化,但鉴于明天在马斯喀特举行的外长会议的出席情况、重要性和言论,我们应该能对此有更清晰的了解,以及伊朗是否充分参与了其关于与阿曼分享霍尔木兹海峡控制权的明显提议。

I think that will really give us a sense of taking the temperature of the mood in that part of the world when it comes to the prospects for this war, a war which it's worth remembering. Trump said recently he expects to end very soon after those midterm elections in November. Let's stick with shifting alliances, if we could. You're preparing for a visit from Mark Carney, the prime minister of Canada. He's going to deliver a major speech, uh, I believe, on the heels of one that was live underline the president of the E.U., the European Commission is going to deliver a state of the European Union address.

我认为这将真正让我们感受到该地区对这场战争前景的情绪。值得记住的是,特朗普最近表示,他希望在那年11月的中期选举后很快结束这场战争。让我们继续讨论不断变化的联盟关系吧。你正在准备接待加拿大总理马克·卡尼的访问。他将发表一篇重要演讲,我相信是在欧盟委员会主席刚刚发表的欧洲联盟国情咨文之后。

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