沙特东西向输油管道遇袭关闭，全球原油供应风险上升

The end of the week when Brent topped a $107 a barrel and diesel prices in The US rose above $6 a gallon. Joining us now is Ziad Daoud. He's chief emerging markets economist for Bloomberg Economics. Ziad, I just wanna ask you, do we know anything more about the specifics of this strike? It looks like it was drones possibly launched out of Iraq, but the timing of this is interesting. Why now, and why are we seeing a spike in these, assaults possibly probably from Houthi actors?

What is the strategic interest here about the timing of this attack? Well, the strategic interest is that The US and Iran, the two parties in this war, have different calculus. For The US, it prefers a state of no war, no peace to an outright war if it cannot get peace on its own terms. I don't think that calculus may necessarily hold for for Iran. Because there's a US blockade on Iran because the economic cost of of of the war on Iran is significant, Then there are some in Iran who might think that an outright war and escalation at least might be better than a state of limbo when there is no peace and no war.

And that's probably why you're seeing the escalation in Yemen on the Red Sea and the attacks on Saudi Arabia pipeline, which takes Saudi oil from the Gulf to the Red Sea. Ziad, let me just ask you about the importance of this pipeline. So there has been and continues to be so much focus on the Strait Of Hormuz. And as a result of that, there's been a lot of talk about how to find alternative ways of getting energy out of out of the region.

This was really touted as a success. You look at how much oil was passing through that that pipeline. Just place it in a broader context, the importance of of this pipeline that's been shut down here over the last twenty four hours. When there is disruption to the Strait Of Hormuz, it's hard to under underestimate the importance of this particular pipeline. Basically, there are four infrastructure that gets oil out of the Middle East to the world when the Strait Of Hormuz is shut.

By far, the most important of which is this pipeline, the East West pipeline, that takes Saudi oil to the Red Sea. It can take its total capacity is up to 7,000,000 barrels, of oil daily, but it exports about four to 5,000,000 barrels a day. That's about 5% of global oil supplies. The other infrastructure is obviously there's one in The UAE, there's Oman, and there's the Iraqi Turkey pipeline, but they're nowhere near as important as that Saudi pipeline.

And and that just reminds us about something, basically, which is, yes, these pipelines are important to bypass the Strait Of Hormuz, but they are fixed in for infrastructure that could be subject to attack, and we're seeing examples of that today. Ziad, I'm gonna do what I do at least once a show and ask a really stupid question. And that's why did they have to shut down the pipeline? Was it just untenable? Are they concerned that there could be an explosion or spillage if they keep it operating?

Is it just you you just can't operate it with the number of strikes it took taken? Some form of that verb. So the Saudi statement said a few things they said. Said there's a multiple there were there have been multiple attacks, on the pipeline, and they closed it as a precautionary measure. So the you know, it is closed now, which is significant news, but the most important thing as well is how long will it be closed for.

And if it is precautionary, if there's no significant damage, if it can reopen within a few days, then obviously the impact on the oil market will be limited. If it if there is damage, if there's takes time to repair, then, we have issues. Basically, we have more shortages shortages in the global energy market as a result of that. But if it's precautionary and they're shutting it down, it seems to me the likelihood of them having to do this even from a precautionary standpoint again in the future is not nothing.

So are we gonna get to a point where, like, we find in the straight, it's open, it's closed, it's open, it's closed, it's very uncertain for producers and shippers? Could we end up having the same thing with some of these pipelines, and that's just a supply uncertainty? Yes. Absolutely. And this is a point that we emphasize quite, a lot in our work. So what we said is, yes, the Strait Of Hormuz is shut, but these alternative routes to the Strait Of Hormuz, whether it's the Saudi pipeline, the UAE pipeline, the Omani ports, the Iraq Turkey pipeline, these are not immune from from war.

The the war is not very far away from them. They could be subject to attacks. They could be subject to sabotage, and they could be subject to disruption. And I think if you think about the long term, beyond the short term here, I think what is happening now is gonna change the way The Middle East is gonna be supplying its energy to the rest of the world. I think more of it is gonna be held as storage abroad, and it'll be supplying to the world abroad rather than going directly from the region.

But that's something in the long term. In the short term, we're thinking about the damage to that to that pipeline, how much how much damage there is, and when can when it can be back online. I underscore the the part of that statement from the Ministry of Energy. Any further developments will be announced in due course. So some indefiniteness to to the announcement that they made yesterday. Let let me ask you about diesel.

That has been such a huge story here in The United States as we've seen those prices go up. We talk about this work workhorse fuel, how how important it is for agriculture in particular and for logistics and distribution in in this country. Could you just explain why pry is this still just a refining story here, a global refining story? And what, if anything, could policymakers do to bring down those prices of diesel?

Well, it is partly a refining story, but it's also partly now with with the disruption that we're getting in The Middle East. It's basically the the the crude oil that that's used to that is used to be refined and get diesel is also there are shortages there as well. So it's a combination of shortages of of crude oil and and shortages in refining capacity. And that's what's leading diesel prices in The US to go up, and that's probably gonna lead to higher inflation in different parts of the economy.

What can policymakers do? Well, in the short term, very little. I mean, you can't build up capacity in in a few days. And and therefore, in The US, there is there is there's basically two options. One is to try and bring more supplies into the market fairly soon, either by producing more or releasing from strategic reserves, or the second option is try and restrict the diesel that that leaves The US going abroad and keep it in the country and make sure there's enough supply in The US before it goes abroad.

Let me pull an audible here. All these options are very difficult, of course. Yes. Of course. Let me pull an audible here with our chief emerging markets economist. We've been watching the the BRICS summit unfolding in in India. And I'd I'd love to ask you just sort of how you view the importance of that body, that group of nations that's meeting in India today and tomorrow. And and a question we put to Dan Strumpf, our colleague in New Delhi, just a few moments ago is how much might does it exercise on on the international scene?

It has metamorphosed from the being this marketing tool for Goldman Sachs into this entity of of itself. How how do you look at how do you view the power of the the bricks that are gathering in in New Delhi this weekend? In theory, it should have a lot of power. There's a lot of global GDP in that meeting today, but there's also there's a lot of it's it's a unique sort of platform. It's a unique platform because it brings the world's biggest importers of oil, China and India, with some of the world's largest exporters of oil, like Russia and The UAE