微软计划将数据中心算力扩至三倍,年资本开支近2000亿美元
Microsoft Plans Data Center Push to Triple Its Computing Power | Bloomberg Intelligence
微软巨额资本开支与算力扩张是AI基础设施的核心变量,直接影响硬件供应链(如Nvidia)估值与云服务竞争格局,建议关注相关产业链资金流向。
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Let's get to some of those tech earnings. Oracle and Adobe. Uh we got an analyst who follows those companies. So that makes it very easy. Anoragana, he is a senior technology analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's out there in Chicago. Anorog, let's start with Oracle here cuz man, I saw, you know, their cloud business had a great number and that's what I thought people were focusing on. The stock traded up 9% at the open, but it's kind of giving it back.
让我们来看看一些科技公司的财报。甲骨文(Oracle)和阿多比(Adobe)。嗯,我们有一位关注这些公司的分析师。所以这变得非常容易。阿诺拉加纳(Anoragana),他是彭博情报的高级技术分析师。他目前在芝加哥。阿诺罗格(Anorog),我们从甲骨文开始吧,因为说实话,我看到他们的云业务表现非常出色,这也是我认为人们关注的焦点。股票开盘时上涨了9%,但随后又有所回落。
What's going on there?
那里发生了什么?
Yeah, Ben, it's to be honest, it's a bit confusing because we really like the numbers. I mean I think the cloud business was improving even more than what uh the street was expecting and that's what had happened and I think the guidance for next quarter is also conservative. They should be able to beat that uh you know cloud numbers as well. I I think what's happening over here is there is a little bit of you know uncertaintity about data center expansion.
是的,本,老实说,情况有点令人困惑,因为我们真的很喜欢这些数字。我的意思是,我认为云业务的改善程度甚至超过了华尔街的预期,事实也确实如此。而且我认为下一季度的指引也比较保守。他们应该能够超越那些云业务数据。我认为这里发生的情况是,人们对数据中心扩张存在一些不确定性。
So you know it's probably that's more macro not related just to Oracle and I think that could be one factor. Um the one thing that I liked about the earnings was that they actually said they're not going to have to raise capex because that has been my biggest worry when it relates to Oracle is that do they have to keep on increasing capex. One of the things they're doing is they are asking customers to think about it bring your own chips or bring your own hardware this way they don't have to foot the bill ahead of time.
所以你知道,这可能更多是与宏观因素相关,而不仅仅是与甲骨文有关,我认为这可能是一个因素。关于这份财报,我喜欢的一点是他们实际上表示不需要增加资本支出(capex),因为这一直是我对甲骨文最大的担忧:他们是否必须不断增加资本支出。他们采取的措施之一是要求客户考虑‘自带芯片’或‘自带硬件’,这样他们就不必提前承担费用。
So it's it's really doing these arrangements are helping them out but you know I I think it's more the macro related about data center expansion in general. So our Bloomberg News uh story written by Brody Ford points out as well that gross margin shrank to 61%. Um and sequentially that's a big drop because it was 66.3% in the previous quarter. Does that worry you honor?
所以这些安排确实帮助他们缓解了压力,但你知道,我认为这更多是与整体数据中心扩张相关的宏观因素。因此,彭博新闻由布罗迪·福特(Brody Ford)撰写的报道也指出,毛利率收缩至61%。环比来看,这是一个大幅下降,因为上一季度为66.3%。霍诺尔(Honor),这让你担心吗?
Well, we have been modeling that for a while. I mean it is normally a natural whenever you have a brand new you know business starting in the infancy it will have very low gross margins. But imagine this they missed out massively on gross margins. I mean compared to last year I shouldn't say miss but the gross margins dropped but their operating margins improved. They have been cutting cost so well that they are actually showing you know very decent operating margin.
嗯,我们已经对此建模有一段时间了。我的意思是,通常当你有一个全新的、处于起步阶段的企业时,它的毛利率会非常低。但想象一下,他们大幅错失了毛利率。我是说,与去年相比,我不应该说错失,而是毛利率下降了,但他们的营业利润率提高了。他们成本控制得非常好,实际上展现出了相当不错的营业利润率。
So I I personally would not worry about it because you're adding a lot of gross profit dollars to the company which we would not get otherwise. All right we got to get the story of the day here. Microsoft here Bloomberg's got a green B which means they got exclusive reporting. Brody Ford, Matthew Day. Microsoft plans to more than triple its data center capacity going from 38 gawatt. I have no idea what a gigawatt is, but it sounds big.
所以,我个人并不为此担心,因为我们为公司增加了大量的毛利额,否则我们是无法获得的。好了,我们要来聊聊今天的头条新闻。微软在彭博社的报道中有一个绿色的 B 标记,这意味着他们有独家报道。由 Brody Ford 和 Matthew Day 撰写。微软计划将其数据中心容量增加三倍多,从 38 吉瓦(gigawatt)起步。我完全不知道吉瓦是什么单位,但这听起来规模很大。
Uh up to, you know, I mean, it's going to be up from like 12 gawatt now. What is going on there? Who's paying for that?
呃,提高到……你知道的,我的意思是,它将从目前的约 12 吉瓦提升上去。那里到底发生了什么?谁在为这笔费用买单?
I mean, they have paying for that. I mean, they're spending over two close to $200 billion a year trying to do that. And in fact, you know, the gentleman they mentioned in the report, we just we had him on our podcast 6 months ago. And these guys really are changing the infrastructure of all of Microsoft data centers because the way you do GPU kind of computing or AI computing is very different than what you would do on a CPU based or the older cloud based.
我的意思是,他们在为此买单。我是说,他们每年花费近 2000 亿美元试图做到这一点。事实上,报告中提到的那位先生,我们六个月前就在播客中请他做过嘉宾。这些人正在彻底改变所有微软数据中心的架构,因为进行 GPU 类型的计算或 AI 计算的方式,与基于 CPU 或旧式云架构的计算方式截然不同。
So I mean they have some really impressive data centers that are going on live. Um there is one in Texas, there is one in uh um uh Wisconsin. And so I mean they've done a very good job of managing it and right now whatever they actually can't do it in-house they are outsourcing it to neo clouds at this point. So uh you know frankly speaking Microsoft is in the middle of this is one of the biggest beneficiaries of AI.
所以我的意思是,他们有一些非常令人印象深刻的即将上线的数据中心。德克萨斯州有一个,威斯康星州也有一个。所以他们在这方面管理得非常出色,而目前任何他们无法内部完成的工作,现阶段都外包给了新兴云服务商(neo clouds)。所以,坦率地说,微软正处于这一进程的中心,是人工智能的最大受益者之一。
Um so you would you you know and and on top of that you know they will still be free cash flow positive this year.
嗯,所以你知道,而且在此基础上,他们今年仍将保持自由现金流为正。
Okay. I mean, those are ambitious plans, but will they actually be able to do that given there's a lot of public opposition uh to data centers uh in local communities? I mean, it's one thing to say that this is what they want to do. Can that get done in the time frame they they want?
好的。我的意思是,这些计划雄心勃勃,但在当地社区对数据中心存在大量公众反对的情况下,他们真的能够兑现吗?我的意思是,说这是他们想做的事是一回事,能否在他们想要的时间框架内完成又是另一回事?
I think that is the single biggest you could say obstacle right now or the overhang or not just Microsoft, but you can extend that to everybody whether it's AWS, Google, Oracle or the Neoclouds is do they get the permits to be able to do it? will they have the power and you know so far we have had not seen any major I would say there have been delays but not any massive delays but frankly speaking the opposition we are seeing it right now um I would say across the board not just with the Democrats but Republicans as well I think this is going to be a bigger issue that plays out over the next 6 to 12 months and that is one thing I could I think that is one thing that could you know soften the the growth rate of some of these AI labs as well as you know I I would say just the entire AI trade in general.
我认为这是目前最大的单一障碍,或者说悬而未决的问题。这不仅适用于微软,也可以推广到所有公司,无论是 AWS、Google、Oracle 还是新兴云服务商(Neoclouds),关键在于他们能否获得必要的许可来开展业务?以及他们是否拥有足够的电力供应?到目前为止,我们尚未看到任何重大延迟,我想说的是虽然有延误,但并非大规模延误。坦率地说,我们现在看到的反对意见是普遍存在的,不仅限于民主党人,共和党人也一样。我认为这将在未来 6 到 12 个月内成为一个更大的问题,这也是我认为可能放缓一些 AI 实验室乃至整个 AI 行业整体增长速度的一点因素。
So, is this in the numbers? I'm looking at the I see a capex ramping up on the Bloomberg terminal for Microsoft, but is this kind of gigawatt expenditures? Is that in the numbers?
那么,这些数字反映在财报数据中了吗?我在彭博终端上看到微软的资本支出正在攀升,但这种吉瓦级(gigawatt)的支出是否已经体现在数据中了?
I mean, right now, I think you you have because you're looking at this year and next year, you know, almost everybody is increasing capex next year. You know, in our own BI's projected data center model, we have capex going over the next few years. we have not we are not tapering it down at this point because um you have more backlog revenue on the balance sheets than they have the capacity to to fulfill it and the math is you know 1 gawatt costs somewhere around depending on what kind of data center you're building 40 to$60 billion right now of an Nvidia data center
我的意思是,目前你们看的是今年和明年,你知道几乎所有人明年的资本支出都在增加。在我们自己的 BI(彭博情报)预测的数据中心模型中,我们的资本支出在未来几年内将持续增长。我们目前并没有削减它,因为资产负债表上的积压收入超过了他们的交付能力。从数学上看,建设一个数据中心所需的吉瓦级电力成本大约在 400 亿到 600 亿美元之间,具体取决于你建造的数据中心类型,这是一座英伟达(Nvidia)数据中心的成本。
are you I don't know what these guys are doing
我不知道这些人到底在做什么。
big numbers either way
无论如何都是巨额数字。
big numbers oh by the way by by the way half of that goes to Nvidia just think about it this way
巨额数字。哦,顺便说一句,其中一半都流向了英伟达,你可以这样想。
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Hey, when I first worked down in lower Manhattan in the mid 80s, it was a ghost town, man. At 5:00, everybody just kind of bailed. Maybe they had the South Street Seapport, but that was about it. If you want of downtown.
嘿,当我在 80 年代中期第一次在曼哈顿下城工作时,那里简直是一座鬼城。到了下午 5 点,大家都散去了。也许有南街海港(South Street Seaport),但也就仅此而已。如果你想逛市中心的话。
Exactly. Now, that was good. We We did some good stuff down there at South Streetport after work, but now it's just ripping down there. They did a phenomenal job renovating and rejuvenating the entire southern tip of Manhattan post 911. And we write about it on Bloomberg News today. Great, great story. Uh Amanda Gordon joins us here. She's a reporter for the wealth team at Bloomberg News joining us here in our studio.
没错。刚才那段做得不错。下班后我们在南街港口(South Streetport)那边做了一些很棒的事情,但现在那里正如火如荼地发展着。他们在9·11事件后对曼哈顿南端的整体翻新和焕新工作做得非常出色。我们今天在彭博新闻(Bloomberg News)上对此进行了报道。这是一个非常精彩的故事。阿曼达·戈登(Amanda Gordon)现在 joins 我们,她是彭博新闻财富团队的记者,正在我们的演播室与我们连线。
Amanda, talk to us about what's going on in lower Manhattan because boy, post 911, it's not just the the World Trade Center site, it's just kind of lower Manhattan in general's kind of been rejuvenated. What's going on down there?
阿曼达,请跟我们谈谈曼哈顿下城的情况,因为天哪,9·11之后,不仅仅是世贸中心遗址,整个曼哈顿下城似乎都经历了某种程度的复兴。那里到底发生了什么?
Exactly. Well, as [clears throat] this morning, as those names are being read, we we think of a void that was created and it really was one to your point that already existed. People already felt that the uses of this downtown area um were were not vital before 9/11. And so that void that was created that day sort of spurred so many New Yorkers to get on board to think about how to reinvent. And I just think [clears throat] it's so important reporting the story to note that those who played a part in conversions of tho
没错。嗯,[清嗓子]今天早上,当那些名字被念出时,我们想到的是一个被创造出来的空白,而且正如你所说,这个空白其实早已存在。人们早就觉得9·11之前这个市中心区域的使用状况并不充满活力。因此,那天所创造出的这种空白促使许多纽约人投身其中,思考如何重新塑造该地区。我认为[清嗓子]在报道这个故事时,指出那些参与改造的人至关重要,尽管……
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