哈里斯:40万亿美元美债是国家级安全问题
$40T Debt Is National Security Issue: Haass
宏观核心议题:顶级学者将巨额债务直接定性为国家安全风险,揭示了高利率环境下的财政挤压逻辑,值得投资者关注宏观尾部风险。
One of your thesis is that foreign policy begins at home. American power is not just nuclear weapons or aircraft carriers. It rests on the economic, political, and social strength of the US itself. So my question to you, Richard, is how strong are these foundations of American power? In September 2026, short answer scholars. They're not as strong as they were. And the short answer is is not. They're not as strong as they need to be.
你的一个论点是,外交政策始于国内。美国的实力不仅仅体现在核武器或航空母舰上,而是建立在美國自身的经济、政治和社会力量之上。因此,理查德,我想问你:这些美国实力的基础有多稳固?2026年9月,简短回答:学者们认为,它们不如从前那么稳固了。简短的回答是:不稳固。它们远未达到应有的强度。
People don't have the same confidence. Us. They don't see us the same way politically, whether it's January 6th or other sorts of polarization. Uh, economically, they look at, uh, the scale of our debt and basically say, are you Americans willing and able to deal with your obligations, your responsibilities, because you're not just any other country? We are dependent, uh, upon you. They look at frictions in our society.
人们不再拥有同样的信心。他们看待我们的方式在政治上已发生变化,无论是1月6日事件还是其他形式的极化现象。在经济层面,他们关注的是我们债务的规模,并基本会问:美国人是否有意愿和能力履行你们的义务和责任?因为你们并非普通国家——我们依赖于你们。他们观察到我国社会中的摩擦与矛盾。
So, yeah, I think there's, uh, there's unfortunately real reason to be concerned about, if you will, the state of the country. And it gives it creates a permission structure for other countries to do something similar for other actors to kind of follow in our footsteps. But we're certainly not setting an example a lot of them would want to emulate. That was the whole idea of soft power that people would see the vibrancy of our of our economic system, our political system, our society.
所以,是的,我认为确实有令人担忧的理由,如果你愿意的话,可以说是对国家现状的担忧。这种状况为其他国家采取类似行动、或其他行为体效仿我们的脚步提供了许可结构。但我们显然没有树立起许多国家希望效仿的榜样。这正是“软实力”理念的核心所在:人们本应看到我国经济体系、政治体系和社会的活力。
And they'd say, they'd say, hey, we want to be more like them. I don't think a whole lot of other countries are doing that. Plus, we're not leaning on them in the same way. I mean, we're not going to we're not going to push them. So we say to the contrary, you have these elections in Germany the other day, instead of expressing concern about our right wing pro-Russia and sympathetic to the Nazi past party, you have the president and Elon Musk congratulating them.
他们会说:嘿,我们希望更像他们。但我不认为有很多其他国家正在这样做。此外,我们也不再以同样的方式依赖他们。我的意思是,我们不会去推动他们。相反,你说:前几天德国举行了选举,你没有对那个右翼亲俄、同情纳粹历史的政党表示关切,反而是总统和埃隆·马斯克向他们表示祝贺。
So, yeah, we're in a very different place. So the president has pulled the U.S. out of all kinds of multilateral organizations and agreements. You've made the argument that this kind of retreat would ultimately make Americans feel less secure and less prosperous. And we see this reflected in lots of consumer sentiment surveys. Explain the connection here. Why should an American who is struggling with housing, with health care, with retirement care, whether Washington continues to underwrite global order?
所以,是的,我们正处于一个截然不同的境地。总统已将美国退出各种多边组织和协议。你曾论证,这种退缩最终会让美国人感到更不安全、更不繁荣。我们在大量消费者情绪调查中看到了这一反映。请解释其中的联系:为什么一个正为住房、医疗保健和养老问题所困扰的美国人,还要关心华盛顿是否继续为全球秩序提供支撑?
Because what happens there doesn't stay there. Here we are today, 25 years after 9/11. What was one of the great lessons of 9/11? That stuff happening in places like Afghanistan could travel here. You had sorties getting trained by terrorists, uh, in Afghanistan, coming over here, killing nearly 3000 people in a single day. What does that tell us? The idea of a border. We have to rethink it. When? More recently, Covid.
因为那里发生的事情并不会留在那里。今天是2001年9月11日事件后的第25年。9/11带来的一个重大教训是什么?那就是在阿富汗等地发生的事件会波及这里。你在阿富汗接受恐怖分子训练,然后飞越过来,在一天之内杀害了近3000人。这告诉了我们什么?关于边境的概念。我们必须重新思考它。什么时候?更近一些的例子是新冠疫情。
What began, whether it was in a market or a laboratory in Wuhan, China, again came here and killed so many Americans. Look at trade. The Americans have lost their jobs because of trade or new technology, or in some cases have gotten jobs because of the ability to export to others. So the idea of foreign policy being far, we really need a new template for that. We have to understand that. What happens here? Your first question affects what goes on elsewhere, but also the other way that we're not just near these two oceans, the Atlantic and the Pacific, whatever else they are, they're not moats.
无论它是在中国武汉的市场还是实验室开始的,再次波及这里并导致如此多的美国人死亡。看看贸易。美国人因为贸易或新技术而失去了工作,或者在某些情况下,因为能够向他人出口而获得了工作。因此,认为外交政策遥不可及的想法确实需要一个新的模板。我们必须理解这一点。这里发生的事情会影响其他地方,反之亦然;我们不仅仅靠近大西洋和太平洋这两个海洋,无论它们是什么,它们都不是护城河。
We are affected by what goes on elsewhere. Let's talk about fiscal policy. Because today, you know, collectively we're seeing the bond market. And economists, um, Sending warning signals about the national debt more than $40 trillion. How high does that $40 trillion of national public debt rank as a national security issue? It is a national security issue because the rest of the world loses confidence in our ability to manage our economy.
我们会受到其他地方所发生事情的影响。让我们谈谈财政政策。因为今天,你知道,我们 collectively(集体地)看到了债券市场。经济学家们发出警告信号,指出国家债务超过40万亿美元。这40万亿美元的国民公共债务作为国家安全问题的排名有多高?它是一个国家安全问题,因为世界其他地区对我们管理经济的能力失去信心。
They'll move away from the dollar. They'll stop financing the debt. We will then have to take all sorts of economic measures, for example, raising rates not to cool and overheating an economy, but simply to attract the financing that we that we want, uh, need. And then we're not going to have that money available for other things, whether it's to build better schools or build bridges, or be nice to have some high speed rail in this, uh, uh, country or and we go down the list, there's a million things we won't be able to do.
他们会远离美元。他们将停止为债务融资。我们将不得不采取各种经济措施,例如提高利率不是为了给过热的经济降温,而是仅仅为了吸引我们想要、呃,需要的融资。然后我们就不会有这笔钱用于其他事情,无论是建造更好的学校或桥梁,还是在这个国家拥有令人愉快的高速铁路,等等,我们列出的清单上有一百万件事我们将无法做到。
We've already kind of gotten close to that point. The service on the debt, essentially paying the interest on our debt is now greater than what we spend on defense. Mhm. That is crazy. This is money going down the drain. We want to spend money, the budget on productive things. We want to invest in ourselves and our future. We don't want to simply pay off our past profligacy and that is what we're doing. Well, it brings to mind this, um, erosion of trust.
我们已经接近那个点了。债务服务,本质上是为我们的债务支付利息,现在大于我们在国防上的支出。嗯哼。这太疯狂了。这是资金白白浪费。我们希望将预算花在富有成效的事情上。我们希望投资于我们自己和我们未来。我们不想仅仅偿还我们过去的挥霍,而这正是我们正在做的。嗯,这让我想起了信任的侵蚀。
And it's not just, uh, foreign countries trust in America. It's also our own trust ourselves. There's a new poll from AP NORC that shows more Americans have stopped believing in the government, uh, public trust in federal government, information about inflation and cost of living is now 18% from 26% in 2024. Trust in, uh, information about the labor market down to 15%. Trust in elections and politics down to 13%. Can government, um or our institutions rebuild or repair that trust?
而且,这不仅仅是外国对美国的信任问题。也是我们对自身的信任问题。AP NORC 的一项新民意调查显示,越来越多的美国人不再相信政府。目前,人们对联邦政府、通胀和生活成本信息的信任度仅为 18%,而 2024 年这一数字为 26%。对劳动力市场信息的信任度降至 15%。对选举和政治的信任度降至 13%。政府或我们的机构能否重建或修复这种信任?
Richard. First of all, it's really depressing to hear statistics like that. That's kind of what you get when politicians continually tear down the government, raise questions about the legitimacy of our elections. When we looked at who took the 2020 elections, we looked at it. It's 60 court cases. There was nothing there. When you have people talking about the deep state, as though the government, the tens of millions of Americans who work for the government or somehow something else.
理查德。首先,听到这样的统计数据真的令人沮丧。当你看到政客们不断诋毁政府、质疑我们选举的合法性时,你就会得到这样的结果。当我们审视 2020 年选举的情况时,我们查看了它。有 60 起诉讼案件。那里什么也没有。当人们谈论“深层政府”时,仿佛政府、为数千万在美国政府工作的人或其他什么东西是某种异己力量。
No. They're us. There are our wives, our husbands, our children, our neighbors, and we want the best and brightest to go into government. We need to trust our country, our government, because we're so affected by its decisions, what it does and doesn't do. Look, it's going to take a few things. It's going to take leadership that stops tearing us down. Uh, that would help, uh, from the top, but also from the bottom. We need to, for example, have civics taught in our schools.
不。他们就是我们。他们是我们的妻子、丈夫、孩子和邻居,我们希望最优秀、最聪明的人才进入政府。我们需要信任我们的国家和政府,因为我们的命运深受其决策的影响,受其做与不做之事的影响。听我说,这需要几方面的努力。需要停止拆台的领导力。这会有所帮助,无论是来自上层还是底层。例如,我们需要在学校教授公民教育。
You should not be able to get a high school or college degree. I would argue without understanding the basics of democracy, the relationships between this country and its individual citizens, your rights, but also your obligations. What do you owe this country? We want more people to do public service. Well, it's military or civilian, international or domestic. We have to rebuild the bonds that made this country so special.
如果不理解民主的基本原理、这个国家与其个体公民之间的关系、你的权利以及你的义务,你不应该能够获得高中或大学学位。我认为,如果你不了解这些基础知识,就不配毕业。你欠这个国家什么?我们希望更多人从事公共服务。无论是军事还是文职,国际还是国内事务。我们必须重建让这个国家如此特殊的纽带。
So when de Tocqueville came over here, what, 250 years ago, he looked at America and he said, wow, this is a country that works together. That's unified. Again, here we are, 9/11. What happened after 9/11? Unity. We came together. What did President Bush do? He went to the mosque in Washington and said, we are all Americans, Whatever our religion, however we dress, we have to be there for one another. We need to hear a little bit more of that.
所以,当托克维尔大约 250 年前来到这里时,他看着美国说,哇,这是一个团结协作的国家。它是统一的。再次回到这里,9/11 事件之后发生了什么?团结。我们走到了一起。布什总统做了什么?他去华盛顿的一座清真寺发表讲话,说我们都是美国人,无论我们的宗教信仰如何,无论我们穿着如何,我们都必须彼此扶持。我们需要更多地听到这样的声音。
What's your personal strategy for investing? For saving? Look, I'm not smart enough to do market timing, so I tend to invest for the long term. I'm also heavily diversified. Uh, I'm going easy right now. I'm a pessimist by nature, as you know, from having had me on various, uh, shows. And there are times in life, I think, to make money. And there's also times in life not to lose money. So I would think I'm increasingly in the latter camp.
你个人的投资策略是什么?储蓄策略呢?听着,我还没聪明到能进行市场择时的地步,所以我倾向于长期投资。我的投资组合也高度分散。嗯,我现在采取的是相对保守的策略。正如你们通过我在各种节目中的表现所知,我天生是个悲观主义者。我认为人生中有些时候是为了赚钱,而有些时候则是为了不亏钱。所以我认为自己越来越属于后者阵营。
So I'm still pretty invested. I'm also not a kid anymore because of where you are in your investing career or because of where we are geopolitically. The idea that we're going to get through the next couple of years without some type of a crisis, we haven't had a recession in a decade and a half. We talked about the $40 trillion debt. You have to be a real optimist to think that something's not going to happen. Energy inf
所以我仍然保持相当程度的投资。我也不是小孩子了,这既取决于你在投资生涯中所处的阶段,也取决于当前的地缘政治形势。认为我们在未来几年内不会遭遇某种危机,这种想法未免过于乐观,毕竟我们已经十五年没有经历衰退了。我们曾讨论过40万亿美元的债务问题。你必须是一个真正的乐观主义者,才会认为某些事情不会发生。能源方面
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