美NEC主任称5000美元支票提案严肃可行

Joining us now, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council. He's joining us from the White House law, and I assume you're not going to Ireland to watch golf, Kevin. Yeah. I wish. You know I'm gonna ask you some rude, obnoxious questions about the Fed, etcetera, etcetera. But first Yeah. You've always been rude and obnoxious, Michael. First, I wanna recognize that this is a, special day and wonder what Yes.

Your experience was on 09/11 and what you remember about it. Oh, sure. You know, I was in Washington working at the American Enterprise Institute, and we were over on 17th Street. And from, you know, the this side, the White House side of the building, we saw the plane crash into the Pentagon. And then everybody knew that something that was going on that was, like, much bigger than we thought, is something truly terrible.

And most everybody at the American Enterprise Institute went home as quickly as they could and then got their kids out of school because, as you might remember, we had no idea what was gonna happen next. And thank thank goodness, that, you know, that was the end of it, because there was a period there for weeks where I think you remember there was anthrax in Florida and everything, and we really thought that there might be an attack all across the country.

But we grieve, with the families of those, who lost loved ones on that day today, and I think we have another moment silence coming up, and it's it's fully appropriate. Now we, do have some business to discuss here, and that is, The US economy. Inflation comes in a little bit hotter on the the core side. And, basically, you look at the diffusion, it still shows a lot of the sectors of the economy in the CPI running hot.

So do you anticipate that the Fed now is going to raise interest rates next week? Well well, of course, you know, we have very high regard for chairman Walsh and respect the independence of the Fed. And so I'm not gonna second guess the move that they may or may not make. But the thing that I can say is that if you look at the stochastic process that drives inflation, that it's not really like a long memory process. It's a short memory process, which means that over the last few months, you know, you get a signal that makes you think best about what's gonna happen in the months to come.

And if you go back three months, then core CPI was at three and a half percent. If you look at the last three months, even with a slightly disappointing number, core CPI is two. And so, in the model that I would be using, I would say that you've just about hit the target and inflation is decelerating. Now what the Fed decides to do, maybe they decide that they're gonna do something that put risks on this side or that side.

It's up to them. But frankly, I think that inflation is clearly decelerating even with this slight uptick this month. If you look at the three month average, then you're basically hitting the core target. Well, I gotta follow-up though by asking if the Fed should raise interest rates, whether or not Kevin Hassett thinks they should. What about the president? Is that okay with him? The president will have an opinion about it, I'm sure.

He believes that there's plenty of room for interest rates to go down, and he voices that opinion while respecting the independence of the Fed. And so I would guess that if the Fed, makes a a big move, that the president will have something to say about it. Director Hasleth, I have to ask you. It's your job at the NEC to give the president economic advice and also, you know, figure out how it gets done. Right? So who came up with this $5,000 idea?

Mhmm. Well, I think that if you look at the way the president worded it, he said that we're gonna have $5,000 if we win the house and the senate. And, you know, one way that that could happen would be through a reconciliation process where because of all of the growth and all of the wealth that's being created in The US, you know, the president thinks that we need to return more of that to the American people, and you could do that in a fiscally responsible way through a reconciliation process.

So that's, know, one path that's being considered. So you're advising that the president goes through some kind of reconciliation process to get this done, and did you come up with the number? Is that what a Republican vote costs? You know, we're we don't talk to the White House about who advises what. But I can say that the president thinks that it's very, very important that all of the success that we've generated, the almost 20,000,000,000,000 in in investment that's coming at this really stampeding into The US, that all of that needs to be, returned to the American people, especially if we can cut government spending, so that we can do it in a fiscally responsible way.

Well, even and I have known each other for years in Washington. We know how Washington works. Can you say this is a serious proposal given where we are with the national debt and what this would cost and given the fact that a whole bunch of Republicans, particularly in the house, already said no way? Well, yes, it is a serious proposal, and the bottom line is that there are multiple paths, to getting it done. And, you know, don't underestimate president Trump.

You know, when he said, hey. I really like no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on social security. There are a lot of Republicans that were saying, hey. You know, that's not traditional supply side economics. But it but it really we convinced them it really is, because if you have no tax on overtime, then the hardest working people in a firm have an incentive to work more, and that's a supply side thing. And so in the end, the president can be very, very persuasive, and he's very serious about this proposal.

Have you spoken with NEC attendees, everybody from Scott Bessent to Robert f Kennedy junior about this? Are they all on board? And what about colleagues that would need to be on board to make this happen through reconciliation? It doesn't sound like some of them are. Well, again, it's a process since beginning. But, yeah, everybody, on president's team supports the president's policies. I've not heard anyone call up and complain.

And I think there'll be discussion about how to make the president's dream a reality, and don't underestimate us. It's gonna be inflationary, though, policy that the president excuse me? It's gonna be inflationary, though, if it does happen in the hypothetical. It it would it would not be if it was paired with an appropriate amount of fiscal responsibility. I'm tempted to ask if I spent some of the money in Canada whether you'd arrest me, but I'll leave that question aside.

We might arrest you anyway, Mike. I don't know. We we talked a bit about why you think that the Fed could make a decision to hold and got into some of the weeds about that. But for the voters who are going to the polls in eight weeks, it doesn't really matter what the inflation rate is. I've got a chart here. If we could put it up that shows what the inflation rate is and how that changes. And at the same time, it also shows what the level of prices is.

And the level of prices is going up faster and not coming down. And when people go to the grocery store, they're not saying, oh, yeah. Well, it was only a tenth, it was a tenth cheaper, this month in terms of the, in terms of the inflation rate. They're looking at it and going, wow. These prices are still high. So how do you make that case to the American people? You make a good point, Mike, as as you often do. The fact is that because of Joe Biden's 20% really inflation, then prices went to a really unacceptably high level.

And while inflation is coming down and coming down rapidly, if you look at those three month numbers that I described to you a moment ago, that people are still feeling the pinch of the Biden inflation. Now the difference between president Trump's economy and Joe Bid

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