美柴油首破6美元，IEA下调需求预期致债市抛售

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Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager.

And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today.

Karen, it may be hard to believe, but today marks 25 years since the terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001. Today will be marked by national remembrance ceremonies in honor of the more than 3,000 people killed that day. Bloomberg's Lisa Matteo has more on today's events in Manhattan. [bell] The first moment of silence comes at 8:46, marking the moment Flight 11 struck the North Tower. After houses of worship will toll their bells throughout the city, and then families of the victims begin reading their names in pairs.

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The next moment of silence comes at 9:03 when flight 175 struck the South Tower. At 9:20, we get moments of silence at both the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ. Silence happens again at 9:37, the time Flight 77 struck the Pentagon. At 9:59, silence marks the time of the fall of the South Tower. 10:03, we observe silence for the time Flight 93 crashed near Shanksville, Pennsylvania.

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There will be another moment of silence at 10:28, the time the North Tower fell in New York. Lisa Matteo, Bloomberg Radio. All right, Lisa, thank you. Well, this year, the National September 11th Memorial and Museum is adding a seventh moment of silence at 12:30 p.m., honoring thousands whose lives were cut short by illnesses linked to the toxic aftermath of the attacks. The new tribute recognizes first responders, recovery workers, survivors, and lower Manhattan residents exposed to dangerous dust and debris in the days and months after September 11th.

More than 8,000 people enrolled in the World Trade Center health program have since died. And officials say tens of thousands continue to battle 911 related health conditions. The FDNY will also lead a moment of silence at 911 Wall Street time at the Times Square Triangle before heading to the NASDAQ to ring the opening bell.

And Karen, President Trump is going to mark this day at the Pentagon. Bloomberg's Andrew Oday has more from the nation's capital. Defense Secretary Pete Hexath and Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Kaine will join the president while Vice President JD Vance attends the New York Observance. The New York Times reports Trump initially wanted to attend ground zero in New York, but decided against it after organizers would not let him speak.

White House communications director Steven Chung called that report fake news. Other administration officials will be in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. Nearly 3,000 people were killed in the attacks 25 years ago. In Washington, Andrew Ode, Bloomberg Radio.

All right, Andrew, thank you. Today's ceremonies come hours after a twoight Republican convention in Dallas, Texas. Vice President JD Vance delivered last night's keynote address and he urged voters to stick with Republicans even if they disagree with the Trump administration on the war with Iran. The Vice President invoked the late conservative activist Charlie Kirk in that call.

There are people who love what we've done and people who don't. I'm not here to litigate the disagreements between Charlie and some of the people that he disagreed with. But what I'm asking you to do is do what Charlie did. Do not throw the baby out with the bathwater. And we get more on Vice President Vance's speech from Bloomberg's Eric Wson at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.

JD Vance came to the Republican convention needing to energize his potential 2028 bid. He gave a solid performance where he emphasized his family values, his military service, and attacked Democrats for their alleged socialist leanings. His speech was energized by a protester waving what appeared to be a Mexican flag. He had his biggest applause line of the night saying that this protester should go back to Mexico.

And Bloomberg's Eric Wson reports Vance did not mention President Trump's pledge to issue $5,000 checks to American adults if Republicans win in November, but the president did as he closed out the convention last night.

$5,000 for every adult citizen in our country. [applause] And we can do that because our country has never done better. We're taking in trillions trillions of dollars.

President Trump also reiterated his call to pretend he's on the ballot in November, saying, quote, "When I'm on the ticket, everyone comes to vote."

Now Karen, let's turn to the latest on the war in the Middle East. The focus is shifting to the Bob Eland Strait where Iranbacked Houthy militants have completed their takeover of the Red Sea choke point after days of fighting. That's according to Ajance France Press. Meanwhile, Gulf Arab states are considering a meeting with Iranian officials next week about the Strait of Hormuz. Stuart Livingston Wallace leads Bloomberg's Middle East coverage.

There is supposedly going to be a meeting next week between members of the GCC, that is the Gulf Cooperation Council, effectively the Gulf Arab States and Iran. We're not quite sure what's on the agenda, although I mean I don't think it's a stretch to say, you know, what top of the agenda will be, but it'd be interesting to see if they can find a way forward because the I guess the state of play is that we're in the situation that I think one Emirati uh voice described as neither peace nor war, which I think very neatly encapsulates the current situation.

And Bloomberg Stewart Livingston Wallace reports both the US and Iran are preparing for the war to continue for months, if not longer. That has energy prices uh elevated. This morning, US diesel costs more than $6 a gallon at the pump for the first time ever. AAA's nationwide average now puts diesel at $65. Nathan, as the war drags on, the International Energy Agency is cutting its forecast for oil demand. The agency deepened its estimates for this year's decline in global oil demand by 940,000 barrels a day to 2 and a.5 million barrels a day.

That's the biggest loss in annual average terms since the 2020 COVID pandemic. IEA says the return of a supply surplus will now be delayed until 2027.

And Karen, the surge in energy prices is one of the contributing factors to the global bond selloff. Yields on 10-year notes have climbed almost 20 basis points this week to trade just below the psychologically important 5% level. David Savage is a Bloomberg Markets live strategist.

You have surging crude prices, commodity prices more broadly, and I think in really increasing concerns that the fiscal situation is not improving. All of which is going to demand higher yields, a higher term premium, and that's going to be very difficult to to turn around.

And Bloomberg Markets live strategist David Savage adds that velocity in the bond sell-off compounded by the spike in crude prices is now weighing more directly on stocks. Karen, stock futures are higher and earnings from Oracle are helping to lift sentiment this morning. That stock is up 6 and a half% in early trading. Oracle's cloud computing business grew faster than analysts projected. That's signaling its big bets on AI data center projects are paying off.

Rishi Jalurya, managing director for software equity research at RBC Capital Markets, talked about Oracle's cloud infrastructure or OCI.

Look, I think the numbers across the board were definitely better than feared. Uh, you know, there were concerns around financing, concerns around the timeline of being able to turn uh the backlog that's sitting in RPO into revenue. Clearly with the overachievement on OCI in the quarter and the raised guide um you know I think that some of those uh worries might be temporarily put to rest.

That's RBC Capitals Rishi Galoria. Sales in the closely watched cloud infrastructure business jumped 121% to 7.4 billion.

Well on the flip side Nathan shares of Adobe they're down 3% this morning. The software maker gave an outlook for sales that narrowly missed anal