IEA：伊朗战争致柴油出口锐减，全球面临供应缺口
OpenAI Considers Slowing AI Development
IEA对供需基本面的量化评估直接影响大宗商品定价逻辑，关注其对油价及通胀预期的指引。
NEWS MAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS. THIS IS "THE PULSE" WITH FRANCINE LACQUA. FRANCINE: GOOD MORNING, EVERYONE. WELCOME TO "THE PULSE." I’M FRANCINE LACQUA HERE IN LONDON. IF BOND MARKET FRONT AND CENTER AS THE U.S. 10-YEAR YIELD APPROACHING 5%, THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2007 AS RISING ENERGY PRICE FUEL INFLATION FEARS. LET’S GET MORE WITH VEN. SCOT BESSENT HAS DISMISSED CONCERNS ABOUT TREASURIES. SHOULD INVESTORS BE CONCERNED?
新闻人物与市场动向。这是由弗朗辛·拉库主持的《脉搏》。弗朗辛：大家早上好，欢迎来到《脉搏》。我是弗朗辛·拉库，目前在伦敦报道。随着美国10年期国债收益率逼近5%，创下2007年以来的最高水平，能源价格上涨加剧了对通胀的担忧，债券市场成为焦点。让我们连线文恩·斯科特·贝森特，他已驳斥了关于美国国债的担忧。投资者是否应该担心？
GOOD MORNING, FRANCINE. I THINK THE INVESTORS HAVE EVERY REASON TO BE CONCERNED. WE HAVE SEEN THE SURGE IN CRUDE PRICES AND THEY ARE APPROACHING NEWER LEVELS IN THE U.S. THIS MORNING AS WE SPEAK. IT IS A BIG CONCERN FOR THE MARKETS. WE HAVE INFLATION COMING OUT TODAY THAT IS GOING TO SHOW YET ANOTHER 3% PLUS PRINT AND WE ALREADY KNOW THAT INFLATION WAS A PROBLEM IN THE U.S. HEAVEN BEFORE THE WAR BEGAN. INSIDE THE 2% INFLATION MANDATE FOR A LONG TIME.
早上好，弗朗辛。我认为投资者有充分的理由感到担忧。我们看到了原油价格的飙升，它们正接近新的水平，正如我们现在在美国所看到的。这对市场是一个巨大的担忧。今天我们将看到通胀数据出炉，预计将再次显示超过3%的增长，而且我们已经知道，在战争爆发之前，通胀问题在美国就已经存在很长时间了，一直未能达到2%的通胀目标。
IT HAS MADE THE PICTURE WORSE. TO ADD THAT, YOU HAVE DEFICIT CONCERNS. TRUMP IS OFFERING $5,000. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR DEFICITS AND HOW IS HE GOING NEW AND AND THEN YOU HAVE AI LED DEAD FUNDING AS WELL. IT IS A PICTURE OF WORRY. IT IS WHY I THINK THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE COULD GET 5% ON THE 30-YEAR COULD THEN BE TOUCHING 550 BY THE END OF THE YEAR. FRANCINE: HOW SIGNIFICANT IS TODAY’S CPIPRINT GOING TO BE FOR THE MARKETS?
这使得形势更加严峻。此外，还有赤字担忧。特朗普提出提供5000美元。这对赤字意味着什么？他将如何融资？此外，还有人工智能驱动的债务融资问题。这是一幅令人忧虑的画面。这也是为什么我认为我们有可能会看到30年期国债收益率达到5%，而标普500指数年底可能触及550点。弗朗辛：今天的CPI数据对市场有多重要？
WELL, I THINK THAT TODAY TO THE EXTENT THAT IT STAYS ABOUT 3% ASKS GOING TO BE A CONCERN. AS I WAS MENTIONING, DIESEL PRICES ARE ALSO SURGING IN THE U.S. AT THE MOMENT. THE INFLATION PICTURE IN THE U.S. DOESN’T LOOK PRETTY ENCOURAGING. I THINK IT IS GOING TO MATTER TO THE MARKETS MORE WHAT THE FED IS GOING TO DO NEXT WEEK. IF NAY HOLD RATES THAT IS GOING TO BE A COMPLETE SHOCK TO THE MARKETS. WE HEARD WARSH SPEAK HAWKISH.
嗯，我认为如果今天的通胀数据保持在3%左右，那将会成为一个担忧点。正如我提到的，目前美国的柴油价格也在飙升。美国的通胀前景看起来并不乐观。我认为市场对美联储下周的行动更感兴趣。如果美联储维持利率不变，那将对市场造成完全出乎意料的冲击。我们听到沃什（Warsh）发表了鹰派言论。
IT IS GOING TO BE VERY BEARISH FORRIES ESPECIALLY ON THE LONG END WHICH INVESTORS WOULD PUN BY SELLING TREASURIES AT THE LONG END AND KEEPING IT HIGHER. FRANCINE: THANK YOU SO MUCH. THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS GLOBAL OIL MARKETS FACE A DEEPER DEFICIT AS THE IRAN WAR IMPACT ON DEMAND IS OUTWEIGHED BY STEEPER CUTS TO SUPPLIES. WE’RE JOINED BY THE OIL AND INDUSTRY MARKETS DIVISION AT THE I.A. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.
这对债券市场，尤其是长期债券来说将非常利空，投资者会通过抛售长期国债来惩罚它，从而推高其收益率。弗朗辛：非常感谢你。国际能源署表示，由于伊朗战争对需求的影响被供应的大幅削减所抵消，全球石油市场面临更深的短缺。我们连线的是国际能源署石油和行业市场分析部的专家。感谢您加入我们。
SERVE DO YOU SEE DEMAND DESTRUCTION FOR DIESEL FUEL AND HOW MUCH WORSE DO YOU THINK IT WILL GET?
您如何看待柴油燃料的需求破坏？您认为情况会恶化到什么程度？
GOOD MORNING. SO WE’RE OBVIOUSLY SEEING VERY STEEP LOSSES TO DEAND IN THE SECOND QUARTER. WE ESTIMATE THE GLOBAL OIL DEMAND WAS DOWN BY 5.5 MILLION BARRELS A DAY YEAR-ON-YEAR. A LOT OF THAT DECLINE HAS COME FROM PETROL CHEMICAL FEED STOCKS BUT WE’RE SEEING STEEP LOSSES IN DIESEL. WITH DIESEL PRICES RISING SHARPLY TO RECORD LEVELS IN THE UNITED STATES AND ALSO IN EUROPE, THIS IS HAVING AN IMPACT, AN INCREASING IMPACT ON DEMAND AS WE MOVE FORWARD.
早上好。因此，我们显然看到第二季度需求出现非常急剧的下降。我们估计全球石油日需求量同比下降了550万桶。这种下降很大程度上来自石油化工原料库存，但我们也在柴油方面看到了急剧的损失。随着美国和欧洲的柴油价格急剧上涨至创纪录水平，这正在对需求产生影响，而且随着时间推移，这种影响越来越大。
FOR 2026, WE EXPECT OIL DEMAND GROWTH NOW TO -- OIL DEMAND TO DECLINE BY 2.5 MILLION BARRELS A DAY. THE BIGGEST LOSSES ARE COMING FROM THE DIESEL SECTOR AS HIGHER PRICES AND INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY IS BEING STRAINED. FRANCINE: AS OIL HEADS TO $100, WHAT ARE THE LATEST SIGNS OF PRICE-DRIVEN DEMAND DESTRUCTION?
对于2026年，我们现在预计石油需求将——石油需求将每天减少250万桶。最大的损失来自柴油领域，因为价格上涨和工业活动受到压力。弗朗辛：当油价升至100美元时，由价格驱动的需求破坏的最新迹象是什么？
WE’RE SEEING THAT BRENT PRICES HAVE SURPASSED $100, THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE MAY. WE’RE SEEING STEEPER INCREASES AND HIGHER PRICES, TESTIMONY CRUDE CARGOES BOTH IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND THE MIDDLE EAST AND ASIA. THE INCREASE WE’RE SEEING FOR DIESEL, DIESEL PRICES FOR THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE ARE $200 CURRENTLY. OBVIOUSLY THIS IS FEEDING INTO DEMAND AS WE MOVE FORWARD. A LOT OF THE TIGHT THANS WE’RE SEEING TODAY IS COMING FROM THE PRODUCT MARKETS.
我们看到布伦特原油价格已突破100美元，这是自5月以来的最高水平。我们看到更大幅度的上涨和更高的价格，大西洋盆地、中东和亚洲的测试原油船货。我们看到的柴油价格上涨，美国和欧洲的柴油价格目前为200美元。显然，随着时间推移，这正在影响需求。我们今天看到的许多紧张局势来自产品市场。
WE SEE RESTRICTED FLOWS FROM THE MIDDLE EAST, NOT JUST OF CRUDE BUT DIESEL. AND COMPOUNDED BY LOSS OF RUSSIA, UKRAINIAN ATTACKS ON RUSSIA REALLY SEVERELY CUT PRODUCT EXPORTS AND REFINERY THROUGHPUTS IN RUSSIA OVER THE LAST MONTH. RUSSIA USED TO BE THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF DIESEL TO GLOBAL MARKETS AND YOU WE SEE IN AUGUST THOSE FLOWS AT A TRICKLE. TOGETHER THE MIDDLE EAST AND RUSSIA DIESEL EXPORTS IN AUGUST WAS DOWN BY 1.6 MILLION BARRELS A DAY COMPARED TO PREWAR LEVELS.
我们看到来自中东的流动受限，不仅是原油，还有柴油。加之俄罗斯的损失，乌克兰对俄罗斯的袭击在过去一个月严重削减了俄罗斯的产品出口和炼油厂吞吐量。俄罗斯曾是全球市场最大的柴油出口国，而在8月份，我们看到这些流动如涓涓细流。中东和俄罗斯在8月份的柴油出口量与战前水平相比，每天减少了160万桶。
THIS IS TIGHTING THE MARKETS. CONSUMERS AND RETAILERS, THE INVENTORY BUFFERS THAT WE HAVE HAD AND HAVE BEEN DRAWING ON SO FAR, WE’RE SEEING AN INCREASE IMPACTING DEMAND AS WE GO FORWARD UNLESS WE SEE A RESUMPTION OF FLOWS FROM THOSE TWO KEY SUPPLIERS. FRANCINE: HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU ABOUT THE RISK OF HIGHER ENERGY PRICES IN EUROPE? ARE WE TALKING ABOUT STOCKPILE RELEASING WHAT YOU KNOW, IF THERE IS A NEED TO HOW MUCH MORE STOCKPILE IS THERE THAT CAN BE RELEASED IN THIS REGION?
这正在收紧市场。消费者和零售商，我们一直依赖的库存缓冲，我们看到随着时间推移，这种影响正在加剧，除非我们能看到这两个关键供应商恢复流动。弗朗辛：您对欧洲能源价格上升的风险有多大担忧？我们在谈论释放战略储备吗？你知道，如果有需要，该地区还可以释放多少更多的战略储备？
OF COURSE THERE IS -- WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE START OF THE WAR, WE HAVE SEEN GLOBAL INVENTORIES FALL BY 500 MILLION BARRELS OVER THIS PERIOD. KNOWLEDGE AUGUST WE SAW INVENTORIES DOWN BY ALMOST 100 MILLION BARRELS OR LIKE 3 MILLION BARRELS A DAY. WITH RECORD PACE OF INVENTORY LOSS, WE ARE SEEING STOCK HOLDING AND THE BUFFERS RUNNING AT LOW LEVELS FOR CERTAIN PRODUCTS IN CERTAIN REGIONS BUT WE STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT OIL STOCKS IN TOTAL ABOUT -- AND OF COURSE THE I.A., WE RELEASED ABOUT 300 MILLION BARRELS OF EMERGENCY STOCKS IN THESE HISTORIC COLLECTIVE ACTION THAT WAS PUT IN PLACE IN MARCH, THE SIGNIFICANT VOLUME -- THE EMERGENCY STOCKS STILL LEFT IN THE SYSTEM AND THE PRODUCTS PARTICULARLY IN EUROPE.
当然有——自战争开始以来，我们已观察到全球库存在此期间下降了5亿桶。8月份我们看到库存下降了近1亿桶，或日均约300万桶。鉴于创纪录的库存消耗速度，我们在某些地区和某些产品上正看到存货和缓冲水平处于低位，但我们仍有大量石油总库存——当然，国际能源署（IEA）在3月实施的这一历史性集体行动中释放了约3亿桶紧急储备。系统中剩余的紧急储备量仍然显著，特别是在欧洲的产品方面。
FRANCINE: HOW MUCH IS ACTUALLY LEFT IN YOUR STOCKPILES AND AGAIN, YOU KNOW, WHEN COULD IT BE DISTRIBUTED?
弗朗辛：你们的储备中还剩多少？另外，你知道，什么时候可以分配？
SO WE’RE IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH THE MEMBER COUNTRIES OF COURSE TO ASSESS THE SITUATION. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SOVEREIGN WE HAVE MANAGED THE OIL MARKET BALANCE HAS -- WE HAVE SEEN A REDUCTION ON DEMAND OFFSETTING A LOT OF LOSSES FROM THE MIDDLE EAST AND WE’RE SEEING AN INCREASE OF SUPPLIES FROM OTHER SOURCES BUT WE HAVE ABOUT 7.8 BILLION BARRELS OF OIL STILL LEFT IN OUR TANKS. OF COURSE THEY ARE UNEVENLY SPREAD CONSUMING CENTERS.
因此，我们当然与成员国保持密切联系以评估局势。我们已经看到主权国家管理下的石油市场平衡状况——需求减少抵消了来自中东的大量损失，并且我们看到来自其他来源的供应增加，但我们油箱中仍剩余约78亿桶石油。当然，这些储备分布不均，且消费中心各异。
A LOT OF THAT STOCKPILES ARE IN THE FORM OF CRUDE OIL AND THE REFINING SYSTEM STRETCHED TO THE LIMIT NOW THE FOCUS IS ON PRODUCT INVENTORIES. IN EUROPE WE STILL HOLD QUITE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRODUCTS. BOTH DIESEL AND OTHER PRODUCTS THAT COULD BE TACHED IF THE MARKET TIGHTENS FURTHER. FRANCINE: HOW STRONG CHINA THE’S OIL BUYING COMING BACK?
大部分储备以原油形式存在，炼油系统现已拉伸至极限，目前的重点转向产品库存。在欧洲，我们仍持有相当可观的产品数量，包括柴油和其他在市场进一步收紧时可能调用的产品。弗朗辛：中国的石油购买力恢复得有多强？
CHINA PLAYED ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS IN REBALANCING THE MARKETS SINCE THE START OF WAR. PARTICULARLY FOR CRUDE OIL. WE SAW CHINESE CRUDE OIL BUYING GOING FROM 11 MILLION BARRELS A DAY BEFORE THE WAR STARTED IN FEBRUARY TO JUST 6 IN JULY. IN AUGUST, WE SAW THOSE VOLUMES TICKING UP SLIGHTLY BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE PRE-WAR LEVELS. AS CHINA WAS DRAWING FROM THEIR OWN STOCKPILES OF CRUDE OIL TO RUN THEIR SYSTEM, BUT AS THOSE STOCKS ARE BEING DRAWN DOWN AND WITH REFINING MARGINS REACHING ALL TIME HIGHS, WE’RE SEEING INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA BUT ALSO FROM OTHER COUNTRIES, PUTTING STRAIN ON THE CRUDE SYSTEM.
自战争开始以来，中国一直是市场再平衡的关键因素之一，特别是对于原油而言。我们看到，自2月战争开始前的日均1100万桶原油购买量降至7月的仅600万桶。8月份，我们看到这些体积略有回升，但仍远低于战前水平。随着中国动用其自身的原油储备来维持系统运行，但随着这些库存被消耗以及炼油利润达到历史新高，我们正看到来自中国以及其他国家的增加需求，给原油系统带来压力。
WE HAVE SEEN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN REFINERY THROUGH CHINA IN THE LATEST MONTH WITH NEW QUOTAS FROM BEIJING IN AUGUST, WE’RE EXPECTED RECOVERY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING MONTHS. OF COURSE CHINA ALSO HOLDS STILL SIGNIFICANT VOLUMES OF CRUDE OIL THAT THEY CAN TAP SO IT WOULD BE A QUESTION ON PRICING MOVING FORWARD ON HOW THEY PRIORITIZE BUYING CRUDE OIL FROM THE OPENING OH MARKETS AND COMPETING FOR THOSE BARRELS IN A TIGHT MARKET OR IF NAY DON’T DRAW DOWN INVENTORIES AND TO SUPPLY INTERNATIONAL MARKETS WITH PRODUCTS.
最新一个月，随着北京在八月出台新配额，中国炼油厂吞吐量略有上升，预计未来几个月复苏将持续。当然，中国也持有大量可动用的原油库存，因此问题在于定价将如何演变：他们将如何优先从开放的OPEC+市场中购买原油，并在紧张的市场中争夺这些桶油，或者如果有的话，不消耗库存并向国际市场供应产品。
FRANCINE: THANK YOU SO MUCH. HEAD OF THE OIL INDUSTRY AND MARKETS DIVISION AT THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY. OIL PRICES ON TRACK FOR A 10% JUMP SINCE MONDAY. RETAIL PRICES HAVE RISEN ABOUT $6 A GALLON. THIS COMES AS FIGHTING INTENSIFIES STOKING FEARS OF DEEPER SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS. LET’S GET MORE. WHAT EXACTLY IS DRIVING THE SURGE IN OIL?
弗朗辛：非常感谢。国际能源署石油工业与市场司司长。自周一以来，油价有望上涨10%。零售价格每加仑已上涨约6美元。随着战斗加剧，人们对供应进一步中断的担忧日益升温。让我们了解更多。究竟是什么推动了油价飙升？
GOOD MORNING, FRANCINE. MORE OF THE SAME ESSENTIALLY WHAT’S HAPPENING IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THE PARALLEL FIGHTING IS PICKING UP AS YOU NOTED. THE HOUTHIS, YES, MA’AMNY-BACKED THAT ARE ENTERING ANOTHER CRUCIAL WATERWAY IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THAT IS CAUSING AN ESCALATION ON ALL DIFFERENT FRONTS WHEN IT COMES TO THIS WAR THAT HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR MORE THAN SIX MONTHS. AT THIS POINT, NO END IS IN TIGHT. NEGOTIATIONS ARE NOT BACK ON THE TABLE BETWEEN THE UNITED S
早上好，弗朗辛。基本上还是霍尔木兹海峡正在发生的事情。正如你指出的那样，平行冲突正在升级。胡塞武装，是的，女士，得到了伊朗的支持，他们正在进入中东另一个关键水道。这导致这场已经持续了六个多月的战争在所有不同战线上的升级。目前来看，没有看到结束的迹象。美中之间的谈判并未重新回到桌面上
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更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力