美伊冲突升级，油价突破100美元并维持高位
Iran and US Brace for Long War
原油价格突破100美元且缺乏回落迹象，直接改变大宗商品定价基准；红海航线风险升级影响全球物流成本。建议宏观与商品交易者密切关注油价走势及地缘政治对供应链的潜在冲击。
Opened up just over the course of the past five days or so. Yeah. I mean, those fronts have been there for for a number of years, but I think the issue here is the the scale of the escalation that we've seen. So, I mean, I think the focus, yes, of course, has been around Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, but now a lot of that attention is being refocused on the Bab El Mandeb straight, the Red Sea in general. As you know, that's been going on for several weeks, but what's changing now is that you've seen a concerted push by the Houthis to go further south and towards the coast.
局势在过去五天左右迅速升级。是的。我的意思是，这些冲突前线已经存在多年，但我认为这里的关键问题是我们所看到的升级规模。因此，我的观点是，当然，焦点一直围绕霍尔木兹海峡和波斯湾展开，但现在大量注意力正重新聚焦于曼德海峡以及整个红海地区。正如你所知，这种情况已持续数周，但如今的变化在于，胡塞武装正协同推动其行动进一步向南推进，并靠近海岸线。
Now, fundamentally, they've already been able to hit shipping from the areas they already control. So will it change anything in the immediate term? Yes. Possibly a little bit because, obviously, the closer you get to that straight geographically, the easier potentially it becomes to target shipping. So it is important, and it's something we need to keep an eye on. And, clearly, it's of great concern to the oil market.
现在，从根本上说，他们已经从其已控制区域成功打击了航运。那么这在短期内会改变什么吗？会的。可能会有些许变化，因为显然，地理上越接近该海峡，潜在地就越容易瞄准航运目标。因此这很重要，也是我们需要密切关注的一点。显然，这也令石油市场深感担忧。
As you mentioned, we are well over a $100 a barrel now and no signs anytime soon that we're gonna drop back below that. So I think that's where the focus is this week at least. Yeah. And, of course, that is a front that is important for energy markets and crude products, but we're also monitoring those diplomacy talks or or the lack thereof. There are reports going around, Stuart, about advisers to president Trump telling him that this could go on until the end of his term.
正如你提到的，目前油价已远超每桶100美元，且近期没有迹象表明会回落至该水平以下。所以我认为至少本周的焦点就在这里。是的。当然，这是能源市场和原油产品的重要战线，但我们也在密切关注外交谈判或谈判缺失的情况。斯图尔特，有传言称特朗普总统的顾问告诉他，这场冲突可能会持续到他的任期结束。
Just how realistic is it to go back to the negotiating table now with all the parties involved? Yeah. I mean, it's it's gonna be incredibly challenging given all the history there. Having said that, there continues to be obviously intense interest within the region and within all the partners of people within the region to move back towards some sort of negotiation. Now, obviously, we don't know exactly what's happening in the background, who exactly is saying what to whom, but it must be said that it's not an unreasonable position to think that this could go on for some time.
鉴于所有的历史背景，现在让所有相关方回到谈判桌前有多现实？是的。我的意思是，鉴于所有的历史因素，这将极具挑战性。话虽如此，显然该地区内部以及该地区所有伙伴中的人们对重新走向某种形式的谈判仍保持着浓厚的兴趣。现在，显然我们并不清楚幕后究竟发生了什么，确切地说谁在对谁说什么，但必须承认，认为此事可能还会持续一段时间并非不合理的看法。
So I'm gonna say here a very prominent Emirati voice who sort of described it as neither war nor peace, and I think that perfectly encapsulates the situation we're in. In that, it is nowhere near as intense as we saw in the first couple of months after the war started. Nonetheless, we're having attacks on shipping more or less every day, you know, and there's continuing hostilities at a lower level than we've seen. And that clear is very disruptive for business.
所以我要在这里引用一位非常著名的阿联酋声音，他将其描述为既非战争也非和平，我认为这完美地概括了我们所处的局势。也就是说，它远没有我们在战争开始后的头几个月所看到的那么激烈。尽管如此，我们几乎每天都在遭受对航运的袭击，你知道的，而且敌对行动仍在低于我们之前看到的水平持续进行。显然，这对商业造成了很大的干扰。
It's very disruptive for just about everything, and there's no clear exit here because as you said in your introduction, there's a sense, I think, from both sides that the other will capitulate first, and there's no signs yet that either are moving anywhere closer to that.
它对几乎所有事情都造成了很大的干扰，而且这里没有明确的出路，因为正如你在介绍中所说，双方似乎都认为对方会先投降，目前还没有迹象表明任何一方正在接近这一点。
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