美伊冲突升级布伦特原油突破100美元，市场担忧霍尔木兹海峡长期封锁

THIS IS HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA. OIL ABOVE $100. BRENT HOLDS IN TRIPLE DIGITS AS IRAN SAYS IT'S READY FOR A MORE INTENSIVE WAR. FEARS OF A PROLONGED CONFLICT KEEP HORMUZ SUPPLY RISKS IN FOCUS. BOND PRESSURE BUILDS, TREASURY YIELDS CLIMB AS SCOTT BESSENT'S EXPANDED BUYBACK TARGETS DISAPPOINT. LONG-TERM YIELDS HIT FRESH HIGHS AS RISING OIL ADDS TO INFLATION AND FED RATE HIKE CONCERNS. AND ECB IN FOCUS. THE CENTRAL BANK IS EXPECTED TO HIKE AGAIN AS THE IRAN WAR FUELS INFLATION FEARS.

JUST GONE PAST 8:00 A.M. ACROSS THE EMIRATES, 6:00 A.M. IN JOHANNESBURG. THANKS FOR JOINING US. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT YOUR CROSS ASSET PICTURE. IT IS A BUSY THURSDAY. U.S. EQUITY FUTURES POINTING HIGHER. WHAT WE DID SEE ON WEDNESDAY WAS A DOWN DAY FOR MOST MAJOR U.S. INDICES. S&P ALSO CLOSING DOWN -- CLOSING AND THE RED FOR A THIRD DAY. RIGHT NOW U.S. EQUITY FUTURES TAKING HIGHER. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW DOES THAT LOOK LIKE, ESPECIALLY WHEN WE FACTOR IN THE THREADS INVESTORS ARE FOCUSING ON.

THERE IS GEOPOLITICS AND ALSO HOW GEOPOLITICS ARE FACTORING INTO SOME OF THE INFLATION CONCERNS. WE HAVE BRENT CRUDE ON THE BOARD, NOW ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS, OR AT TRIPLE DIGITS, TRADING JUST AT ABOUT $101 A BARREL. DOWN MARGINALLY, JUST OVER .2%, BUT TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN JULY ON SOME OF THOSE INCREASED HOSTILITIES AND RHETORIC WE ARE HEARING IN THE CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST, ESPECIALLY WITH THE U.S. AND IRAN TRADING INTENSE RHETORIC OVERNIGHT.

GLOBAL BENCHMARK BRENT NOW DOWN JUST OVER .2%, THOUGH WE HAD SEEN BRENT TRADING UP FOR FOUR DAYS STRAIGHT. OFF ITS WARTIME PEAK, BUT STILL FUELING CONCERNS AROUND INFLATION. THAT ALSO FEEDING INTO THE GLOBAL BOND MARKET. U.S. 10 YEAR YIELD MARGINALLY FLAT RIGHT NOW, JUST ABOUT 4.84%. STILL WE ARE SEEING THE U.S. 10 YEAR YIELD HITTING ITS HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE 2023. PART OF THAT, WE MENTIONED IN THE INTRO, SOME OF THE CONCERN AND DISAPPOINTMENT, I GUESS WE COULD SAY, FROM NEWS IN THE U.S.

ABOUT THE BUYBACK PROGRAM. THAT FEEDING THROUGH INTO U.S. TREASURIES. FINALLY, EURO-DOLLAR ON THE BOARD, LARGELY FLAT. IT IS IN FOCUS AS WE AWAIT THE DECISION FROM THE ECB LATER TODAY. LET'S CHECK ON MARKETS IN ASIA. WINNIE HSU IS IN HONG KONG WITH A CLOSER LOOK. WHAT ARE YOU WATCHING? WINNIE: ASIAN STOCKS UNDER PRESSURE, ESPECIALLY WITH BRENT TRADING ABOVE $100 A BARREL. INFLATION CONCERNS BACK ON THE RADAR. THAT'S WHY WE ARE SEEING TECH STOCKS IN THE REGION LEADING LOSSES.

TSMC, SAMSUNG, ALIBABA TOP CONTRIBUTORS TO THE LOSSES, WITH THE KOSPI DOWN .8%. THE BRIGHT SPOT, OR PERHAPS THE ONLY BRIGHT SPOT, IS IN FINANCIAL STOCKS. THAT IS COMING AS ASIA'S BOND YIELDS FALL ARISING ACROSS THE REGION IN JAPAN, NEW ZEALAND, AUSTRALIA, TRACKING MOVES IN U.S. TREASURIES OVERNIGHT. BEFORE WE TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT JAPANESE ASSETS, BECAUSE ALL EYES ARE ON THE JAPANESE YEN. WE SEE THE YEN STABILIZING AROUND 153.4 AGAINST THE DOLLAR, AFTER HAVING STRENGTHENED FOR THE PAST THREE DAYS.

WE HAVE THE BANK OF JAPAN BOARD MEMBER SAYING THE BANK OF JAPAN IS STILL PRETTY MUCH GOING TO RAISE INTEREST RATES FURTHER TO MAKE SURE THEY KEEP THE PRICING TREND BELOW THE 2% LEVELS. THAT IS OVERALL STILL SUPPORTIVE OF THE NARRATIVES WE HAVE BEEN HEARING FROM THE BANK'S MEMBERS. ALL EYES ARE ON THE DECISION MEETING NEXT WEEK IN TERMS OF THE TONE GOING FORWARD AS WELL. BACK TO YOU. JENNIFER: THANKS SO MUCH. WE WILL CHECK BACK WITH YOU IN A BIT.

BRENT IS HOLDING ABOVE $100 A BARREL AS THE U.S.-IRAN CONFLICT SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF DE-ESCALATION. IRAN SAYS IT IS PREPARED FOR A MORE INTENSE WAR, WHILE WASHINGTON CONTINUES ITS NAVAL BLOCKADE AND STRIKES ON IRANIAN OIL TANKERS. PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS THE U.S. IS WINNING AND THAT OIL PRICES WILL COME DOWN ONCE THE CONFLICT IS OVER. MR. TRUMP: OIL WILL BE GOING DOWN AS SOON AS WE WIN THE WAR WITH IRAN, WHICH IS TAKING PLACE RIGHT NOW.

WE ARE WINNING IT. WE CONTROL THE HORMUZ STRAIT. I THINK WE SHOULD CALL THE HORMUZ STRAIT THE TRUMP STRAIGHT. -- TRUMP STRAIT. I SHOULD GET SOMETHING OUT OF IT. JENNIFER: FOR MORE, PAUL WALLACE, BLOOMBERG'S MENA ECONOMICS AND GOVERNMENT EDITOR. I SAYING IT'S PREPARED FOR MORE INTENSE WAR. CONSIDERING WHAT WE ARE HEARING FROM THE U.S. AS WELL, WHAT DOES THAT TELL US ABOUT WHERE THE CONFLICT IS HEADED? PAUL: I THINK IT SHOWS HOW HARD IT IS FOR TRUMP TO WIND DOWN THIS CONFLICT, WHICH IS INCREASINGLY UNPOPULAR WITH AMERICAN VOTERS.

IRAN IS STANDING FIRM SAYING IT CAN WITHSTAND AMERICAN ECONOMIC AND MILITARY PRESSURE, AND WE EVEN HAVE AN IRANIAN SOURCE SAYING THEY WILL ESCALATE IF NECESSARY. WE HAVE SEEN SOME EVIDENCE OF THAT ALREADY IN THE LAST WEEK. THE U.S. HAS STEPPED UP ITS ATTACKS ON IRAN'S ENERGY FLEET, ITS FLEET OF ENERGY TANKERS, AND HAS DESTROYED -- ACCORDING TO THE AMERICANS -- THEY HAVE DESTROYED AT LEAST EIGHT OIL TANKERS IN THE LAST 5, 6 DAYS.

IRAN HAS RETALIATED BY STRIKING BASES IN PLACES LIKE JORDAN, BUT ALSO GOING AFTER MORE SHIPS. IRAN IS GIVING CREDENCE TO THIS IDEA THAT IT STILL HAS ENOUGH WEAPONRY AND ENOUGH WILLINGNESS TO KEEP HOSTILITIES GOING FOR MUCH LONGER AND THAT THEY CAN WITHSTAND THIS ECONOMIC PAIN FROM THE U.S. NAVAL BLOCKADE FOR SOME TIME LONGER. JENNIFER: WE MENTIONED HOW WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE ENERGY MARKETS, BRENT HOLDING ABOVE $100.

CONSIDERING WHAT YOU SAID, HOW MUCH OF THE PRICE ACTION, IN YOUR MIND, REFLECTS EXPECTATIONS THAT DESTRUCTION THROUGH THE HORMUZ LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE? PAUL: WHEN WE SPEAK TO GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSTS MORE PEOPLE IN THE OIL AND GAS WORLD, VERY FEW OF THEM EXPECT SOME KIND OF RESOLUTION SOON, THAT WE WILL SEE FREE PASSAGE RETURN TO THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THEY SEE IT AS BEING EFFECTIVELY CLOSED FOR MONTHS, PERHAPS EVEN -- MORE AND MORE ARE SAYING THIS IS PROBABLY GOING TO LAST INTO 2027.

SO YEAH, IF THEY ARE CORRECT, AND THERE ARE FEW SIGNS THEY ARE NOT, THIS IS GOING TO KEEP UP PRESSURE ON ENERGY PRICES. JENNIFER: THANKS SO MUCH, PAUL WALLACE STARTING US OFF. LET'S STICK WITH THE STORY, WITH BRENT NOW HOLDING NEAR $101 A BARREL. LET'S GET MORE ANALYSIS WITH CAROL, CEO OF CRYSTAL ENERGY. WE WERE SPEAKING WITH PAUL ABOUT THE OUTLOOK BASED ON A NUMBER OF ANALYSTS WITH THE CURRENT SITUATION IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

IS YOUR EXPECTATION WE WILL NOT GET A RESOLUTION AT ANY POINT THAT COULD GET SOME OF THE FLOW THROUGH THE STRAIT MOVING ANYTIME SOON? CAROLE: WE HAVE BEEN ON THIS UP AND DOWN WITH THIS WAR SINCE THE BEGINNING. ONE DAY WE ARE OPTIMISTIC IT'S GOING TO BE OVER SOON, ONLY TO WAKE UP THE NEXT DAY AND FACE ANOTHER REALITY. THIS, I WOULD SAY THE KIND OF SITUATION WE HAVE TO BRACE OURSELVES TO EXPECT THIS KIND OF VOLATILITY AND UNCERTAINTY TO STAY WITH US FOR SOME TIME, BECAUSE OF THE UNPREDICTABILITY OF WHAT IS THE ENDGAME FROM THIS WAR.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO WIN THIS WAR? HOW DOES IT LOOK LIKE? IT IS STILL FOGGY. THAT SAID, I AM STILL A BIT CONCERNED, NOT FROM THE ECONOMIC SIDE. THIS IS WHERE I WOULD SEE IT AS A STORY WITH TWO SIDES. WE DO HAVE THE OIL PRICE CROSSING THIS PSYCHOLOGICAL THRESHOLD OF $100, BUT I FEAR THAT BECAUSE THE ECONOMIC PAIN, THE IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AS A WHOLE. OF COURSE THERE ARE SOME COUNTRIES SUFFERING MORE THAN OTHERS BECAUSE OF HIGH ENERGY PRICES, BUT WE ARE NOT SEEING THE MACROECONOMIC SHOCK WE WERE ACCUSTOMED TO IN THE PAST.

BECAUSE THE MARKETS HAVE PROVEN TO BE MUCH MORE RESILIENT, I FEAR THERE IS NO STRONG INCENTIVE FOR POLITICIANS, PARTICULARLY THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION, TO END THIS WAR SOON. YOU MAY ARGUE THERE ARE MIDTERM ELECTIONS LOOMING, BUT THE SUBJECT IS NOT REALLY A FAIT A CCOMPLI. WE CAN ARGUE DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS, BUT I FEAR THAT AS LONG AS THE COST OF THIS DISRUPTION IS NOT FELT EVENLY IN THE WORLD, IT'S NOT CAUSING ENOUGH PAIN, WE SHOULD EXPECT THAT CONFLICT TO DRAG ON.

JENNIFER: YOU DON'T BELIEVE THIS IS A NEW FLOOR THEN. WHY IS THAT? CAROLE: I DON'T BELIEVE THERE IS A FLOOR OR A CEILING AT THIS STAGE. DEFINITELY 100 OR THE HIGH 90'S IS NOT A FLOOR, BECAUSE IT'S DRIVEN BY GEOPOLITICS. WE ARE IN A BOILING STAGE, VERY DIFFERENT FROM A FEW WEEKS AG

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