Chewy财报后股价跌10% 分析师称消费者支出受限

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All right, Carlos. Paul Swinny live here in our Bloomberg interactive broker studio streaming live on YouTube as well here. Uh earnings still earning season chewy for our pet lovers out there. Um shares they fell as much as 10% the most since 2025 after the pet supply company forecast a sequential decline in gross margin for the third quarter due to a timing shift. Ooh, that's not good. Diana Rosidopena joins us here.

She's a consumer staples analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Uh what's going on with Chewy? cuz I see the Chewy boxes all over the place. They're getting deliveries.

Yes. Um so for the quarter it was uh you know the headlines were uh strong but if you look under the hood uh a lot of it was timing and um you know acquisitions that fed into into the into the growth. Um you know shorter term they they they expect some challenges. They think that the industry is not necessarily growing. um they are growing at a at a higher pace than than the overall industry and they are taking share but it it seems that they were a little bit downbeat from the call uh particularly with consumer um how restrained they are which is um you know something that we have seen.

So what does a pet consumer do when a pet consumer is constrained a little bit like like for us for humans maybe we'll trade down from a brand to a store kind of thing. Do pet owners do the same thing?

Well, they they do in a certain place uh for the main uh course uh if if you want to say that or the main meal, they tend to stick to the same brand, which is why, you know, packaged food companies uh invest heavily on becoming the main uh meal for their for the pets and get them early. But everything else is up for debate. So, you're talking about snacks, uh you're talking about treats, well treats, uh you're talking about discretionary items.

All of those things are up for play and that has been something that we have seen in the past year. Um and and we think this going to probably continue for for the remainder of the year.

Does True do pet insurance?

They do, but they have, you know, it's all in competency on like vet care. Right now, they're focusing more on clinics um and physical clinics. They're aiming for about 60 by the end of the the year. Um, and it seems that that has been a little bit of of a better alternative for for them. Seems to be working.

All right. Here's your note, which I'm not really sure, but I think you can explain it to me, I'm sure. Growth is increasingly a spend per pet story, not a pet population story. Talk to is that a kind of a remnant of the pandemic or something when it was just a play on the growth of people more people owning dogs, I guess.

Exactly. So, so and that going back to Chewy, it's they have mentioned that for example, uh given how difficult the economy has become, uh real estate um obviously is is is being challenged. So cats are better pets for um you know smaller dwellings compared to dogs and that is you see a trend that drives that and also um you know we see greater um incre you know greater spending on per pet rather than a growth in pet population. um peruy it they you know the population has stabilized uh surrendering and adoption seems to be you know um levels at close to historical averages I will say um but um the play here is more on like the spending per per pet

is I can't believe I'm asking this question what's what's a faster what's the different growth trajectories of like cats versus dogs in terms of the revenue for Chewy

yes So basically obviously um you know the industry is mostly uh dog driven uh but cats are you know anything related to cats are starting to show greater growth than than dogs. Uh you're talking about treats you're talking about you know main food and it's because and we're seeing a slight better population growth in cats at least in the United States compared to dogs. And like I said, it's mainly because people, you know, tend to think that cats are less expensive um to maintain.

Yes, they are. You know, I would say like, you know, about twothirds of what um you know, you spend on a dog. But um and they also tend to do well in smaller um you know, houses.

Exactly. Is Chewy a global company or are they just US?

No, they're just US. they have started uh going into Canada. They're, you know, doing some some uh ground work there. Um they haven't updated in a couple of uh quarters in terms of like the status of that. Um but yeah, they seem to be focused more on the US.

So for the industry, I know you guys do a lot of industry level work. The pet industry, is it growing? Is it is it Have we seen our great times during the pandemic and that's it? Have we reset? What's going on? No, I actually we actually uh published our deep dive today along with with Chewy. We try to time it uh very well and we think over the next 10 years we will probably see the global pet industry growing to uh $645 billion by 2035 globally.

Yeah. 67% um compared to to 2025 um levels and US spending would probably reach $250 billion by then.

Okay. Aside from Chewy, who are the public plays for this?

So, we're talking about the big food companies. You have General Mills, Smucker, Nestle, um you know, smaller pure play like Fresh Pet in the US. Um obviously re on the retail side, Amazon um is a big online player. Um you know, Chewy obviously you have Petco, you have PetSmart, which is um you know, a private company. Yeah. So it's it every everything that you know uh what you want to spend on. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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Let's go back to earnings. Uh Jersey Mike's recently came public here. Um you know it's becoming a has become a really really big uh chain across the country and they want to get bigger. They want to go to the UK and all this kind of stuff. So had a IPO recently. They reported some numbers here. Let's check in with Michael Halen. He covers all the restaurants for uh Bloomberg Intelligence. Mike, talk to us about Jersey Mike.

What do what do we learn with the most recent report? Yeah, you know, it being their first earnings release, we we learned a lot. You know, um you know, the stock's trading up, I think it was up six, 7% the last time I checked. You know, there's a few things going on there. First of all, they guided higher uh than consensus. They're looking there for three to 4% same source sales in the second half, driven mostly by transactions.

That would be an acceleration of of the second quarter uh growth. You know, they're increasing the marketing spending. Uh they're going to do some more uh in-game ads with the NFL. Um they're doing digital marketing, which they hadn't done before. Um this should attract Gen Z consumers into the brand. You know, they're they're bringing back Mike's Hot Sub, which tends to help uh dinner business. Yeah. Um you know, so so they definitely have some initiatives in place.

You know, they also talked about some longer term initiatives. One of them, um is catering. you know, on average they're doing about uh 3% of sales. Um, but you know, they have stores doing 10% and we think and they think 10% is is achievable for the entire system. Um, and then another interesting one they mentioned was late night. You know, they didn't talk about doing more LTO's. They're going to continue with this pace of about three limited time offers a year, but they said they could expa