布伦特原油首次触及每桶100美元

Stephen, it's Amaka. This is the first time since July we've been here before. What do you make of this move and what it tells us about the frictions around the strait and whether. Whether a further grind higher is what markets or at least traders are bracing for now. You know, it does seem, at least with the rhetoric, that traders are interpreting this rhetoric between the U.S. and Iran as a further spiraling away from a peace deal and threatening the flows of oil that have been getting through Hormuz.

I mean, um, there has actually been quite a large increase in dark, uh, flows of oil going through the the waterway, potentially 6 to 8 million barrels per day, according to the analysts and traders that, uh, my colleagues have spoken with still not near, uh, pre-war levels, but definitely a much higher than we were, uh, just a few months back. But with this increase in tension with the US targeting Iranian vessels and with Iran looking at how to counterattack, uh, threatening ports and also, uh, countries that hold US military bases, which are most of them in the region, um, that does pose a threat to that transit and getting the oil out of the the Gulf and to customers in Asia as well as, uh, Europe.

Um, and this is all also coming on the back of, uh, you know, an increase, uh, to a degree of Chinese oil demand. Yes. I want to ask you about that then, um, Steven, because, of course, there are reasons for the focus on the Middle East. And another dynamic is, uh, the who sees continuing or stepping up attacks in Saudi Arabia on energy infrastructure there. But then on the demand side of things, the Chinese seeming to change tack and using inventories less and importing more, uh, how much is all that?

Other explanations, even if the main driver right now is what's happening in the Middle East. I mean, I think the certainly when you look at the Middle East, there is a fear that we could spiral potentially into where we were in March, which is where Iran was targeting energy infrastructure across the region, because when that happens, it's no longer just a story of when does Hormuz open up and when is there a peace deal.

It then becomes a story of, Okay. Something's been damaged. How long will it take for them to get the replacement parts? For there to be maintenance. So that risk. I think that's what people are kind of looking at there. Then when you look on the China side, China did play a big part in balancing the market there, the world's biggest importer of crude oil. And you saw them really ramp down. Um, those, those purchases um, in, in, in April and in the months following, uh, which helped balance the market and when Brent was $120, pushed it back down, allowing for oil to get to other customers in other parts of Asia as well as Europe now.

I think what you're looking at now is there is an increase in oil demand, at least in August, from, from Chinese, um, buyers. Uh, but we've also got a report, uh, from my colleagues at Bloomberg hearing, uh, that you are seeing potentially the tea pot refiners. Those are the smaller, um, private owned refiners, uh, looking to take in less crude and lower the run rates just because oil is more expensive. It doesn't make that make sense for them to do it.

Uh, you could also see traders look to resell oil on the market to make a profit. And then also it really depends on how you view where prices are going from here.