沙特能源设施遇袭致油价逼近100美元，日元强势反弹

Good morning. It is Tuesday, September 8th. Here's what's on the agenda. The yen continues to rally, closing in on its strongest level this year. Oil nears $100 a barrel as copper prices break new records and Canada slaps retaliatory trade tariffs on the US. Okay, Tom, let's talk about some numbers. We are through 155. We're through 154 where I've got a 153 handle on dollar yen. Right now. We've had a touch below 153 the high for the year or the low for the year, depending on your perspective.

Uh one 5210 are we going in that direction there some key moments coming up? Brent crude going towards 100. We've had reports out of Saudi this morning that a number of energy facilities are on fire. We'll come back to that story. Your stocks 50 futures were a little softer. And we don't have the catalyst coming out of the United States. It it was closed yesterday. We return with that trade a little bit later on. There is a lot going on this morning.

The countdown to the opening trade starts right now. So we saw the rally in the end yesterday and that continues today. There's broader global ramifications arguably as a result of what we're seeing in this currency is 150 to the next level. What does that do to the carry trade borrowing in Japanese currencies investing it globally if they're an unwind that what does that do to treasuries to US equities. How should we be thinking about a potential normalization in Japan.

It's not 100% that we're that yet. We're going to have to get clarity from the BOJ. Do we need to see more than two hikes that are being priced this year to continue the upside. Does the pension fund need to start allocating more capital towards Japanese assets? There is a global picture as a result of what's happening with the Japanese currency. And the strength in the last two days has been pretty remarkable. I think it's some interesting things happening here.

So to your point about the carry trade, if that gains momentum, does it kind of does that have its own momentum to it. And how quickly could that happen. You got some really big events coming up though Friday. CPI is obviously going to be the big one. If that is soft, how does that affect this trade. If it's if it's a tough number though. If it's a high number, what does that do in terms of fed pricing. And I think that's going to be a factor that will weigh on this pair as well.

Then as you say you get to the next week. The BFG has to be quite hawkish next week for this trade to carry on. There's a danger that this kind of peters out once again. But if you do get a a CPI that fits the narrative and then you get a really hawkish BOJ, potentially this thing has has legs. And then that could really spin in to that trade around around what's happening with Carol I think it's a really interesting what you say about it.

Could Peter out again because of course and what you're referencing is recent history. What we've seen that we've seen the strength of the yen and then and then it's petered out because the structural factors are still there in terms of the trade deficit versus the US, or the trade fundamentals versus the US. And to your point around the BOJ being hawkish, what you're also saying there is yes the assumption is they hike.

But it has to be wrapped in continued hawkish rhetoric. They have to kind of convince the markets that this isn't just one just one more, but that they are prepared potentially to get to go further to normalize rates. Do we get to 125. Do we get to 150 by the end of this year? How much do you need to see on the hawkish side from the BMJ to convince the markets that this is going to be sustained? Go to the pipe function on your Bloomberg.

You'll see that the Japanese yen is way, way, way undervalued. So when the move happens, when it if it happens and it has legs like the magnitude here could be really quite significant. I throw into the one 40s people are talking about in terms of where we could go with this, but you've got to get it going. And we keep kind of trying and stopping and trying and stopping. But if we get there could be really interesting, as you say, global ramifications.

Talking about ramifications, let's talk about what is happening with the crude price and also actually what the wider commodity story is telling us right now. What is telling us is that inflation is coming down the pike towards us. You can see that in the product market when it comes to crude as well. Uh, and you've heard from, uh, from retail talking about just how tight that market is right now. Um, crude is heading.

Brent crude is heading towards 100, it seems. Uh, at the moment you've seen another move this morning to the upside. You've got the Saudis talking about a number of their energy facilities being on fire this morning. Uh, they've had to halt there for action at those facilities. Is that another factor which could lift crude towards 100? Um, there is a there's again, a lot going on. We're waiting to see what's going to be happening with the Strait of Hormuz.

We don't know what this amount among Omani Iranian deal could look like. Is that going to open things up? Could there be further, further issues? Um, in the Gulf of Oman, we don't know. So there's a lot going on here. But but it does seem as if we're lifting ourselves back towards that 100. But 100 bucks a barrel mark. Copper's also on a tear at the moment. This is the I tried this is again just inflationary for the I tried everything that goes into that electrification story.

Copper is a big part of it. It's getting more expensive, therefore more inflation. The narrative again going into the fed, going into the budget, going into these ECB meet the ECB meeting. Inflation looks sticky at the moment at least on the supply. So how relevant is that CPI print on Friday if we're starting to see all of these different dynamics. The reporting out of Bloomberg as well. There was one key line from the reporting on the energy space.

The distillers US nationwide holdings of distillers including diesel, which you've been focused on for a long time at the lowest level for this time of year, in at least a quarter of a century, 25 years. Distillates include including diesel. So there's the impact, of course, on the economy of the US. To what extent is the CPI print may be going to be backward looking if all this inflation is coming, is coming down the pike, if you're looking for green shoots or at least some, some, some evidence that maybe some flows to continue this, the LNG for the first time in a quite a while, an LNG tanker loaded in Qatar and managed to sail through the Strait of Hormuz.

Is that just Is that a one off or is there more as a have the guitarist come to some kind of agreement with the Iranians about getting getting some LNG through the strait? We'll continue to monitor that. We're talking about all the inflationary impacts on the economy. And then the Canadians slap retaliatory tariffs, which we knew about. They knew that were coming. Uh, there was there was some some debate as to whether or not they get some last minute deal with the US.

But given it was a Labor Day holiday yesterday, that that was looking unlikely. So those retaliatory tariffs are now in place. Um, 15 a 15 to 50%, up to 50% on some products, including steel and motorcycles and U.S. cheese. The I guess I guess the question for us now is, is to what extent what how does the Trump administration respond to do you have an issue with U.S. cheese? Sounds like just you just have to have the cheese.

I don't know, I think increasingly, yes. But do you think about us cheese, maybe? No, but I think yes, they do now have quite good cheese. Cheese is important. Um, this is gonna be interesting because it's also going to play in the midterms. So the Canadian tariff story is going to affect Michigan. There's a key Senate seat that is up there. And you do wonder whether or not, again, this is another factor which is going to mean that maybe

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