日元突破155创2月新高，加拿大拟对美加征关税
Yen Rally Continues, Canada To Retaliate Against US Tariffs | The Asia Trade 9/8/2026
日元汇率关键点位突破叠加央行加息预期变化，直接改变外汇交易逻辑；加拿大关税反制落地影响跨国供应链布局。关注汇率波动对资产定价的重估及贸易政策对板块的影响。
HAIDI: THIS IS THE ASIA TRADE. I’M HAIDI STROUD-WATTS IN SYDNEY AND I’M PAUL ALLEN THE YEN STRENGTHENS TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE FEBRUARY, BREAKING THROUGH THE KEY 155 LEVEL AND SURPASSING JULY'S INTERVENTION PEAK. HAIDI: A DEAL TO MANAGE SHIPPING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ MAY BE DAYS AWAY AND IT WILL HAVE A TEMPORARY SAFE ROUTE. PAUL: CANADA SET TO IMPOSE TARIFFS ON THE U.S., TIT-FOR-TAT LEVIES FORCING SOME FIRMS TO MOVE PRODUCTION.
海迪：这里是亚洲贸易。我是悉尼的海迪·斯特劳德-沃茨，我是保罗·艾伦。日元走强至2月以来最高水平，突破关键155关口，并超越7月的干预峰值。海迪：管理霍尔木兹海峡航运的交易可能就在几天之内，它将提供一条临时的安全航线。保罗：加拿大准备对美国征收关税，报复性关税迫使一些公司转移生产。
HAIDI: TRADING ACROSS ASIA COME AS WE WAIT FOR A FIRMING UP OF THE NEWS OUT OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND WHAT THAT COULD LOOK LIKE, HOW PRESIDENT TRUMP IS LIKELY TO RESPOND TO ANY DEAL BEING FINALIZED. U.S. FUTURES OFF BY JUST A QUARTER PERCENT, KOSPI FUTURES LOOKING MORE ROBUST. WE ARE SEEING THE PUSH HIGHER FOR CRUDE PRICES. THAT WILL CONTINUE, CAUSING SOME SENSE OF CONSTERNATION FOR STOCKS TRADING AND BROADER SENTIMENTS.
海迪：随着我们等待霍尔木兹海峡消息的明朗化以及这可能呈现的局面，特朗普总统对任何达成协议的回应方式，亚洲市场正在交易。美国期货仅下跌四分之一百分比，韩国KOSPI期货看起来更为强劲。我们看到原油价格继续走高。这将继续下去，导致股市交易和更广泛的情绪出现一些担忧。
OIL EXTENDING GAINS. WATCHING FOR DETAILS OF THE URANIAN OMAN DEAL TO MANAGE SHIPPING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. ACCORDING TO IRAN IT IS IN THE FINAL STAGES. THERE ARE A LOT OF QUESTIONS AS TO WHAT THIS WILL LOOK LIKE IN TERMS OF THE U.S. RESPONSE. WE HAD RENEWED FIGHTING OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. COPPER IS THE OTHER COMMODITY STORY. HITTING AN ALL-TIME HIGH. TARIFF TURMOIL STRUGGLES CONTINUING TO PUSH THE PRICE OF THAT METAL HIGHER.
油价延续涨势。关注关于伊朗和阿曼达成协议以管理霍尔木兹海峡航运的细节。据伊朗称，该协议已进入最后阶段。对于美国的回应将如何表现，存在许多疑问。过去几周我们经历了 renewed fighting（重新爆发的战斗）。铜是另一个大宗商品故事。创下历史新高。关税动荡带来的挣扎继续推动该金属价格走高。
TAKING A LOOK AT THE OTHER STORY WE ARE WATCHING CLOSELY, THE PRICE ACTION FOR THE YEN. THIS IS THE PICTURE, DOLLAR-YEN TRADING AT 154.13. 152 IS IN VIEW, CLIMBING TO THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE FEBRUARY, SURPASSING THE PEAK THAT WAS REACHED AFTER THE INTERVENTION. U.S. INVESTORS BACKING ON THE BANK OF JAPAN TO RAISE RATES THIS MONTH. MARK CRANFIELD JOINS US FOR MORE. WHAT HAS BEEN THE CATALYST FOR THIS? WE HAD THE EXTENDED DOLLAR DEBASEMENT TRADE, BUT FOR THE YEN IS THIS REALLY JUST CONFIDENCE IN THE BOJ?
让我们看看我们正在密切关注的另一个故事，即日元的价格走势。这是美元兑日元在154.13交易的画面。152的目标可见，攀升至2月以来的最高水平，超越了干预后达到的峰值。美国投资者支持日本央行本月加息。马克·克兰菲尔德加入我们提供更多详情。催化剂是什么？我们经历了长期的美元贬值交易，但对于日元来说，这真的只是对日本央行的信心吗？
MARK: IT IS A BIT OF THAT AND ALSO THE FACT THAT WHEN YOU COMPARE FISCAL SITUATIONS, JAPAN IS MODESTLY IMPROVING RELATIVE TO OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD. NONE OF THIS IS TO SUGGEST JAPAN HAS ROBUST FISCAL SITUATION, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE DETERIORATION IN THE UNITED STATES, FRANCE, THE U.K. ON A RELATIVE BASIS, JAPAN IS LOOKING SLIGHTLY BETTER, IT MAY BE DIRTY SHIRT THAN SOME OF THE OTHERS IN THE SAME FIELD. THAT IS HELPING.
马克：部分如此，同时也因为当你比较财政状况时，日本相对于世界其他国家正在适度改善。这并不是说日本的财政状况稳健，但如果你看美国、法国、英国相对恶化的情况，日本看起来稍好一些，它可能是“脏衬衫”中较干净的那一件。这有所帮助。
THE FACT PEOPLE ARE GETTING MORE SERIOUS ABOUT BOJ POLICY BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE. NOT ONLY THE FACT THEY LOOK AS THOUGH THEY MAY RAISE INTEREST RATES IN SEPTEMBER, EARLIER THAN SOME PEOPLE THOUGHT JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO, THERE MAY EVEN BE A FOLLOW-UP IN OCTOBER. THE IDEA OF SOME SORT OF CONTINUITY TO GET THE DIFFERENTIALS IN INTEREST RATES CLOSER BETWEEN THE U.S. AND JAPAN. AND IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE FORWARD MARKET, THERE IS A LOT OF SHORT COVERING GOING ON.
人们越来越重视日本央行（BOJ）政策可能更加激进这一事实。不仅因为他们看起来可能在9月加息，这比几周前一些人的预期要早，而且10月甚至可能有后续动作。这种某种形式的连续性旨在缩小美日之间的利率差异。如果你观察远期市场的情况，目前正在进行大量的空头回补。
THE POSITIONING WAS STILL PRETTY NEGATIVE JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, YET WE ARE SEEING A VERY QUICK CHANGE IN THAT. IT IS NOT JUST AGAINST THE U.S. DOLLAR, IT IS AGAINST THE EURO, THE POUND, THE SWISS FRANC. WHEN THE YEN IS MOVING AGAINST ALL THE G10 PEERS THAT IS QUITE A FORCE TO MOVE IT FURTHER. THAT IS WHY PEOPLE THINK THE DOLLAR-YEN MIGHT GO BACK TOWARDS 152, WHICH WE SAW ON THE FIRST QUARTER THIS YEAR. AND THAT IS PROBABLY JUST PHASE ONE OF SHORT COVERING.
在最近的几周里，仓位仍然相当看空，但我们看到了非常迅速的变化。这不仅是对美元，也是对欧元、英镑和瑞士法郎。当日元对所有G10货币对都出现波动时，这是一个推动其进一步走强的强大力量。这就是为什么人们认为美元兑日元可能会回到今年第一季度看到的152水平。而这可能只是空头回补的第一阶段。
WHETHER THE YEN COULD SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH SUPPORT ON ITS OWN TERMS IS DOWN TO WHAT THE BANK OF JAPAN HAS TO SAY. THE GOVERNOR'S PRESS CONFERENCE NEXT WEEK, LET'S ASSUME THE BANK OF JAPAN RAISES INTEREST RATES BY 25 BASIS POINTS. HE WILL STILL NEED TO GIVE AN OUTLOOK WHICH SUGGESTS THERE IS MORE TO COME. IF HE DOES THAT, THE YEN WILL START TO DEVELOP MOMENTUM OF ITS OWN. OTHERWISE IT WILL PROBABLY GO BACK TO BEING A RELATIVE TRADE AGAINST THE U.S.
日元能否按照自身的条件获得支撑而持续走强，取决于日本央行的表态。假设下周行长新闻发布会时，日本央行将利率上调25个基点。他仍需提供一份表明还有更多举措的前景展望。如果他这样做，日元将开始形成自己的动能。否则，它可能会重新回到作为相对于美国的交易性货币的状态。
DOLLAR AND OTHER MAJOR CURRENCIES. PAUL: MARK, WHILE THE YEN STRENGTHENS, YIELDS RISE AS WELL. WHAT IMPACT DOES THIS HAVING ON OTHER RISK ASSETS? MARK: FOR NOW EQUITIES ARE LARGELY IGNORING IT BECAUSE THE MOVES AND LONG-TERM YIELDS ARE RELATIVELY -- THIS IS A HUGE WEEK. IN THE U.S. MARKET WE HAVE 10 YEAR AND THIRTY-YEAR AUCTIONS. WE ALSO HAVE BUYBACKS BE GETTING FROM THE U.S. TREASURY. IF THE RESPONSE TO THOSE BUYBACKS IS NOT VERY POSITIVE, IF THAT 30-YOUR AUCTION IN THE U.S.
美元和其他主要货币。保罗：马克，随着日元走强，收益率也在上升。这对其他风险资产有何影响？马克：目前股市在很大程度上忽视了这一点，因为变动和长期收益率相对——这是一周大事。在美国市场，我们有10年期和30年期的拍卖。我们还将看到来自美国财政部的回购。如果对这些回购的反应不是很积极，如果那30年期美国拍卖……
IS NOT A SUCCESS, THAT WILL START TO FEED INTO OTHER ASSET MARKETS, PARTICULARLY EQUITIES. IF WE GET TO SORT OF SLEEP -- DISORDERLY MOVES AT THE LONG END OF THE U.S. TREASURY MARKET, THAT IS NOT A GOOD SIGNAL FOR ANYBODY. AT THE SAME TIME OF THE BACKGROUND OIL PRICES ARE STILL PRETTY FIRM, STARTING TO EDGE BACK TOWARDS 00. IF WE DO GET SOME MORE CONFLICT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN, PEOPLE WILL BE THINKING BRENT AT 100 OR EVEN WTI IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAPPEN PRETTY SOON.
不成功，这将开始传导到其他资产市场，特别是股市。如果我们看到美国国债市场长端出现无序波动，这对任何人都不是一个好信号。与此同时，背景中的油价仍然相当坚挺，开始回升至100附近。如果美国和伊朗之间发生更多冲突，人们会认为布伦特原油达到100美元甚至WTI原油也会很快实现。
IT IS A PURITY HUGE WEEK IN THE GLOBAL BOND MARKETS. IF IT DOESN'T GO SMOOTHLY, IT COULD EASILY FILTER INTO THE U.S. EQUITY MARKET AND SPILL OVER. IT WILL BE PRETTY CHOPPY AND NERVOUS ALL THE WAY THROUGH TO THE END OF THE WEEK -- ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CPI REPORT AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HAIDI: WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT A EARNINGS, THE OIL SITUATION PRESSING HIGHER, COPPER ANOTHER SIGNAL WE ARE WATCHING. HOW MUCH OF THIS COULD FEED THROUGH TO THAT INFLATION EXPECTATION AND THAT THREAT OF A MORE HAWKISH FED?
全球债券市场正经历一个极其重要的周。如果进展不顺利，很容易波及美国股市并产生溢出效应。整个周末都将充满波动和紧张情绪——一直持续到本周末的CPI数据公布。海迪：我们也在关注财报、油价上涨带来的压力，以及铜价这一信号。这些在多大程度上会影响通胀预期，进而引发美联储更鹰派的威胁？
MARK: CERTAINLY THE FED SITUATION, CHAIRMAN WARSH OUTLINED THE PCE DATA HAS BEEN TOO HIGH FOR TOO LONG. THE WAY THAT HE BROKE IT DOWN HE MADE IT CLEAR THERE IS A CASE FOR RAISING INTEREST RATES. IT PROBABLY JUST NEEDS THE CPI TO BE IN LINE OR MAYBE A TOUCH FIRMER AND THEN THE FED WILL HAVE THE AMMUNITION THEY NEED. BUT HE IS ONLY ONE PERSON. IT IS A VERY BIG COMMITTEE. THEY'VE BEEN SPLIT ALREADY. WE HAVE HAD DISSENT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FENCE.
马克：当然，美联储的情况是，主席鲍威尔指出PCE数据过高已持续太久。他对此的分析表明，加息是有理由的。可能只需要CPI符合预期或略强，美联储就拥有了所需的弹药。但他只是一个人。这是一个非常大的委员会。他们已经出现分歧。我们在双方阵营中都听到了异议声音。
THEY ARE GOING INTO THE MEETING WITH A VERY HOT DISCUSSION BUT NOT CONVINCED ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WHETHER THEY SHOULD MOVE STRAIGHTAWAY. THIS WEEK THE BIG EARNING IS ORACLE. THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THEM CLOSELY. AMONG THE HYPERSCALERS, ORACLE HAS BEEN ONE OF THE BIGGEST MOVERS. IF YOU LOOK AT THE DERIVATIVE MARKET PEOPLE ARE NOT CONVINCED ORACLE HAS ALL ITS NUMBERS IN PLACE. IF ORACLE DOESN'T PERFORM WELL, THAT WILL BE A NEGATIVE RIGHT ACROSS THE HYPERSCALER, PARTICULARLY THE CREDIT MARKETS.
他们带着非常热烈的讨论进入会议，但尚未确信是否应该立即行动。本周的重大财报来自甲骨文（Oracle）。我们将密切关注他们。在超大规模云服务商中，甲骨文一直是股价波动最大的之一。如果你看衍生品市场，人们并不确信甲骨文的所有数据都已就位。如果甲骨文表现不佳，这将对所有超大规模云服务商产生负面影响，尤其是信贷市场。
PEOPLE HAVE BEEN'S CONCERN FOR A WHILE, BUT THE BUILDUP OF CREDIT IS STARTING TO GET ON AND IT COULD EASILY CLICK OVER AND BECOME NEGATIVE, FEEDING BACK INTO THE SHARE PRICES OF THE MAJOR COMPANIES. ORACLE WILL BE VERY CLOSELY WATCHED FOR THEIR OUTLOOK, PARTICULARLY IN TERMS OF HOW THEY ARE SPENDING IN RELATION TO EARNINGS IN TERMS OF DATA CENTERS. THAT IS THE BIG ONE LATER IN THE WEEK AS WELL. HAIDI: MARK CRANFIELD.
人们已经担忧了一段时间，但信贷的积累开始显现，很容易转向负面，并反馈回主要公司的股价。甲骨文的前景将受到密切监控，特别是关于他们在数据中心方面的支出与收入的关系。这也是本周晚些时候的重点。海迪：马克·克兰菲尔德。
WE DO HAVE SOME NEWS CROSSING BLOOMBERG. LOOKING AT THE GDP NUMBERS FROM KOREA COMING THROUGH. .6 PERCENT COMING FOR THAT SEASONALLY ADJUST QUARTER ON QUARTER, BANG IN LINE MATCHING THE PRIOR NUMBER FOR THE SECOND QUARTER. WE ALSO HAVE THE YEAR ON YOUR HEADLINE, 3.7%, ALSO IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS. BEYOND THAT, LOOKING TOWARDS HOW THE INFLATION TREND CONTINUES IN SOUTH KOREA. WE HAD INFLATION TOPPING 3% FOR THE THIRD TIME THIS YEAR, CONSUMER INFLATION IN PARTICULAR , THE CORE WITH ITS FASTEST INCREASE IN SUPPORT SINCE MAY OF 2023.
彭博社确实有一些新闻传来。韩国GDP数据出炉。经季节调整的环比增长率为0.6%，正好与第二季度的前值持平。我们的同比 headline 数据为3.7%，也符合预期。除此之外，我们关注韩国通胀趋势的延续。今年第三次通胀突破3%，消费者通胀尤为突出，核心通胀自2023年5月以来增速最快。
THAT IS GOING TO BE KEEPING THE BANK OF KOREA ON ITS TOES MAINTAINING THE TIGHTENING BIAS WITH SECOND-QUARTER GDP. PAUL: STILL TO COME, IRAN SAID TO TIGHTEN CONTROL OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, TEHRAN SAYING AN AGREEMENT WITH OMAN IS JUST DAYS AWAY. THE DETAILS NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. PAUL: LET'S CHECK IN ON THE OIL PRICE, EXTENDING GAINS AS TRADERS LOOK FOR DETAILS OF A DEAL BETWEEN IRAN AND OMAN TO MANAGE SHIPPING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.
这将使韩国央行保持警惕，并在第二季度GDP数据公布后维持紧缩倾向。保罗：接下来还有伊朗表示将加强对霍尔木兹海峡的控制，德黑兰称与阿曼的协议即将在几天内达成。详情稍后报道。这是彭博社。保罗：让我们关注油价，随着交易员寻找伊朗与阿曼之间关于管理霍尔木兹海峡航运协议的细节，油价继续上涨。
TEHRAN SAYS THE AGREEMENT IS JUST DAYS AWAY. FORMER LET'S GET TO MICHAEL HEATH. WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE DETAILS OF THIS DEAL AND HOW MIGHT THE U.S. REACT? MICHAEL: GOOD QUESTION, PAUL, WE DON'T HAVE DETAILS. WE KNOW THE TALKS HAVE BEEN GOING ON FOR A WHILE. IT SEEMS EVERY NOW AND THEN WE GET A DEAL, BUT BASICALLY THE IDEA WOULD BE THEY NEED TO COUNTRIES THAT ARE USING MORE OIL, SHIPPING THAT IS GOING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL NEED TO PRESUMABLY NEED TO FILE SOMETHING GOING THROUGH VARIOUS CHANNELS OF ONE OF T
德黑兰表示该协议将在几天内达成。让我们先听听迈克尔·希思的看法。我们目前了解到的这项协议的细节是什么？美国将作何反应？迈克尔：好问题，保罗，我们目前没有细节。我们知道谈判已经进行了一段时间。似乎时不时会有协议达成，但基本思路是，那些使用更多石油的国家，通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的货物可能需要通过各种渠道提交某种文件。
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