彭博：日元急升至153，日本央行加息预期升温
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日元汇率出现结构性突破，且伴随央行货币政策转向的实质性逻辑（工资与GDP数据），直接影响宏观资产配置与套利策略，建议关注后续利率决议及国债拍卖动态。
YVONNE: 9:00 A.M. IN HONG KONG. YOU ARE WATCHING THE CHINA SHOW. AVRIL: WE ARE COUNTING DOWN TO THE OPENING OF MARKETS IN GREATER CHINA. THE EXTENDS ITS RALLY TO ITS STRONGEST LEVEL SINCE FEBRUARY. OIL HOLDING ONTO GAINS AS A REBOUND IN CHINESE AIRPORTS -- IMPORTS AS PRESSURE TO SUPPLIES. ONE OF THE WORLD'S MOST INDEPENDENT NODULE MAKERS IS SET FOR ITS HONG KONG DEBUT. A TEST OF INVESTOR SENTIMENT OVER THE AI TRADE. HUAWAI UNVEILS A SMARTPHONE JUST DAYS AHEAD OF RIVAL APPLE'S HIGHLY ANTICIPATED ENTRY INTO FOLDABLES.
YVONNE：香港时间上午9点。您正在观看《中国秀》。AVRIL：我们正倒计时大中华区市场开盘。大盘延续涨势，达到2月以来的最强水平。油价持稳于涨幅之上，因中国机场进口反弹——供应压力缓解。全球最独立的芯片制造商之一即将在香港首次亮相。这是对投资者AI交易情绪的一次考验。华为在竞争对手苹果备受期待的折叠屏手机发布前几天，推出了一款智能手机。
AN EXPERIMENTAL DRUG DEVELOPED USING AI SHOWS POTENTIAL IN REVERSING SOME SIGNS OF AGING. WE WILL SPEAK EXCLUSIVELY WITH THE CEO OF ITS DEVELOPER ON THE RESULTS. ♪ YVONNE: LOTS TO -- HAPPENING NOT JUST WHEN IT COMES TO THE BIOTECH SPACE BUT ALSO WATCHING THE STOCK THIS MORNING GIVEN THIS INTERESTING RESULT FROM THIS TRIAL THAT TALKS MORE ABOUT WHAT THEY CAN DO IN TERMS OF ANTIAGING. ONE OF THE FIRST STUDIES THAT SHOWS THAT.
一项利用人工智能开发的实验性药物显示出逆转部分衰老迹象的潜力。我们将独家采访其开发商的首席执行官，探讨相关结果。♪ YVONNE：有很多事情——不仅发生在生物技术领域，今天早上我们还关注这只股票，因为这项试验得出了有趣的结果，进一步揭示了他们在抗衰老方面能做什么。这是首批展示这一点的研究之一。
AND THROUGH AI AS WELL. WE HAVE TO TALK ABOUT SOME KEY LEVELS. YEN, WE ARE AT 153 LEVELS RIGHT NOW. OIL IS APPROACHING CLOSE TO $100. WE ARE STILL SEEING AI HAVE A LOT OF MOMENTUM. AVRIL: YEAH, AND THE HARDWARE STACK IN CHINA WILL BE IN FOCUS AS FAR AS AI IS CONCERNED. FOR THE MOMENT, YOU TALK ABOUT THE LEVELS OF THE JAPANESE CURRENCY. YESTERDAY, IT WAS 155, 153. NOW APPROACHING THE 152 HANDLE. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT HOW DOLLAR-YEN IS FARING.
以及通过人工智能技术。我们必须讨论一些关键水平。日元，我们目前处于153的水平。油价正接近100美元。我们仍看到人工智能拥有强劲势头。AVRIL：是的，就人工智能而言，中国的硬件堆栈将成为焦点。目前，你谈谈日本货币的水平。昨天是155、153。现在正接近152关口。让我们看看美元兑日元的表现如何。
THE STARS SEEM TO BE ALIGNING FOR THE JAPANESE CURRENCY GIVEN HOW U.S. MARKETS WERE ON THE LONG WEEKEND, MAKING IT EASIER TO NUDGE ANYTHING PAST CERTAIN LEVELS. OF COURSE, WE DID SEE THE REPRICING THAT WAS UNDERWAY SURROUNDING THE EXPECTATIONS OF A BOJ RATE HIKE NEXT WEEK. THE FOLLOW-THROUGH IS IMPORTANT. WHAT DOES IT DO BEYOND DECEMBER -- SEPTEMBER AS WELL? SOME SPECULATING ABOUT THE TOP PENSION FUND CHANGING SOME OF THESE ALLOCATIONS, SO SHIFTS IN THAT REGARD.
鉴于美国市场处于长周末，各种因素似乎正在为日元走强创造条件，使得突破某些水平变得更加容易。当然，我们也看到了围绕下周日本央行加息预期的重新定价正在进行中。后续影响很重要。它对12月——甚至9月——有何影响？有人推测顶级养老基金正在改变部分资产配置，因此在这方面有所调整。
OF COURSE, WE ARE SEEING DOLLAR-YEN HEADED TOWARDS THE 153 HANDLE. DATA OUT OF JAPAN WAS ALSO ON WATCH GIVEN HOW WE HAD GDP REVISED HIGHER. THEN, WAGES SHOWED INFLATIONARY PRESSURES. SUPPORTING THE CASE FOR A RATE HIKE. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT WE HAVE SEEN ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION. GIVEN THE YEN'S RALLY THAT IS PUTTING PRESSURE ON THOSE NAMES. EXPORT RELATED COUNTERS. YOU ARE LOOKING AT THE BENCHMARK MANAGING TO HOLD ITS HEAD ABOVE WATER.
当然，我们看到美元兑日元正朝向153关口。由于日本GDP数据向上修正，来自日本的数据也受到密切关注。此外，工资数据显示出通胀压力。这支持了加息的理由。让我们看看该地区其他地区的情况。鉴于日元的反弹给那些出口相关标的带来压力。你看到的是基准指数努力保持在水面之上。
TECH IS IN FOCUS AND YOU ARE SEEING THE KOSPI ADDING ON FROM YESTERDAY STRONG GAINS WHERE MEMORY CHIP RELATED STOCKS, THOSE LED THE RALLY. THAT IS THANKS IN PART TO OPENAI'S RELEASE OF ASTRA. TAKE A LOOK AT COMMODITIES, FOLLOWING THESE MIDDLE EAST DEVELOPMENTS, BUT ALSO THE IDEA THAT CHINA IS REPLENISHING INVENTORIES, BUYING CRUDE AGAIN WHICH IS DRIVING UP PRICES. WE HAVE SEEN WHEN IT COMES TO GOLD, CHINA HAS BEEN BUYING IN THE MONTH OF AUGUST.
科技股成为焦点，韩国综合指数（KOSPI）延续了昨日的大幅上涨，其中与存储芯片相关的股票领涨。这部分要归功于 OpenAI 发布 Astra。让我们看看大宗商品市场，受中东局势发展影响，同时也因为中国正在补充库存、重新购买原油，从而推高了价格。在黄金方面，我们看到中国在八月份一直在买入。
YOU ARE SEEING THAT REFLECTED IN INVESTOR OPTIMISM THAT THERE IS MORE TO GO IN THE REBOUND OF THE PRECIOUS METAL. TAKING A LOOK AT WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN CHINA FUTURES. THE SET UP TODAY HAS BEEN THAT FOCUS AMONG AUTHORITIES OF FASTER ADOPTION OF CHINA'S AI HARDWARE. WHETHER IT IS CHIPS OR OTHERWISE. WE ARE SEEING WHEN IT COMES TO THE LIKES OF HUAWEI THAT HAS BEEN IN FOCUS. AND THANKS IN PART TO THE REVIEWING OF THIS NEW FOLDABLE PHONE ALONG WITH THE ADOPTION OF THE PROCESSOR.
投资者对这种贵金属反弹仍有更多上行空间的乐观情绪也反映在市场中。让我们看看中国期货市场的情况。今天的格局是，当局关注的焦点是中国 AI 硬件的更快采用，无论是芯片还是其他领域。我们关注到华为等公司，部分原因是这款新折叠屏手机的发布以及处理器的采用。
THAT WILL BE IN FOCUS. WE HAVE CHINA TRADE DATA COMING OUT THIS MORNING AS WELL. YEN TRADERS, CERTAINLY, HAVE BEEN TURNING THEIR ATTENTION TO THE NEXT THRESHOLD AND THE 152 PER DOLLAR ZONE IS SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN IN FOCUS GIVEN THIS DOWNWARD MOMENTUM BUILDING. LET'S BRING IN OUR BLOOMBERG CHIEF CORRESPONDENT FOR FX RATES IN ASIA. WE SAW THOSE LEVELS BEING TAKEN OUT. WHAT DO YOU THINK IS NEXT FOR THE JAPANESE CURRENCY?
这将成为焦点。此外，我们今天早上还将公布中国贸易数据。日元交易者无疑已将注意力转向下一个关口，鉴于下行动能正在积聚，152 对美元的区间已成为关注重点。让我们请彭博社驻亚洲汇率首席记者谈谈。我们看到这些水平已被突破。你认为日元接下来会怎样？
UNPACK FOR US WHAT DROVE THIS. RUTH: REMEMBER, IT WAS A COUPLE WEEKS AGO THAT DOLLAR-YEN WAS AT 164. NOW WE HAVE TAKEN OUT THE 154 LEVEL. YES, HUGE MOVES, THE CONFLUENCE OF FACTORS THAT HAVE DRIVEN IT TO WHERE WE ARE TODAY. EVERYTHING FROM INCREASING EXPECTATIONS OF THE BOJ HIKING THROUGH TWO OF THE STRONGLY WORDED, TIT-FOR-TAT, YOU KNOW, COMMUNICATION WITH THE U.S. ON POLICY. ALL OF THIS IS TAKING OUT THOSE YEN-FUNDED CARRY TRADES BUT SPECIFICALLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AS YOU POINTED OUT, WE HAVE A HOLIDAY IN THE U.S.
为我们分析一下是什么推动了这一走势。露丝：请记住，就在几周前，美元兑日元还在 164 的水平。现在我们已经突破了 154 的关口。是的，大幅波动，多种因素的共同作用将其推至如今的局面。从日本银行（BOJ）加息的预期增加，到通过措辞强硬的、针锋相对的沟通与美国进行政策互动，所有这些因素都导致平仓了日元融资的套利交易。但正如你指出的，特别是在过去 24 小时内，美国正值假期。
AND LIQUIDITY WAS INCREDIBLY THIN ALREADY. WE SAW THE BIG MOVE IN THE YEN DURING THE LONDON TRADING HOURS, AND THAT IS TESTIMONY TO THE FACT LIQUIDITY WAS PROBABLY THINNING AS THE U.S. STAYED CLOSER AND INVESTORS WENT, WE ARE NOT DEFENDING IT. WE ARE NOT DEFENDING 155 AND 154. HERE WE ARE AND YES, THE MOMENTUM POTENTIALLY COULD CONTINUE, BULLISH MOMENTUM FOR THE YEN GIVEN WHAT WE'VE SEEN AS WELL. YVONNE: THAT SEEMS LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN EATING A LOT OF MONEY TO FUND THIS RECORD INTERVENTION LAST MONTH.
而且流动性已经极其稀薄。我们在伦敦交易时段看到了日元的剧烈波动，这证明了随着美国市场逐渐接近，流动性可能进一步减少，投资者表示：‘我们不会捍卫它。我们不会捍卫 155 和 154。’我们就在这里，是的，鉴于我们所看到的情况，日元的看涨动能可能会继续下去。伊冯娜：看来他们为了资助上个月的创纪录干预行动，损失了大量资金。
DID THEY HAVE TO SELL TREASURIES? RUTH: YEAH, THAT IS THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. IF WE LOOK AT WHAT WAS SOLD, WE NOTE FOREIGN HOLDINGS FOR JAPAN FELL BY $87 BILLION. WHAT DOES JAPAN AND A LOT OF CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD AND RESERVE MANAGERS LIKE? THEY LIKE TO HOLD BONDS. WHAT IS THE BIGGEST BOND MARKET IN THE WORLD? TREASURIES, OBVIOUSLY. TALKING TO INVESTORS, STRATEGISTS AROUND THIS, THERE IS A LOT OF EXPECTATION THAT THEY DID SELL TREASURIES AND THAT DOES TWO THINGS -- WE KNOW THAT RESERVE MANAGERS AND CENTRAL BANKS LIKE TO HOLD SHORT DATED SECURITIES.
他们必须抛售国债吗？露丝：是的，这正是那个价值百万美元的问题。如果我们看看被抛售的是什么，我们会注意到日本的外国持仓减少了870亿美元。日本以及全球许多中央银行和储备管理者喜欢什么？他们喜欢持有债券。世界上最大的债券市场是什么？显然是国债。与周围的投资者和策略师交谈，人们普遍预期他们确实抛售了国债，而这会产生两个影响——我们知道储备管理者和中央银行喜欢持有短期证券。
THEY ARE MORE LIQUID AND EASIER TO SELL FOR ONE. JAPAN PROBABLY OWNS TREASURIES ACROSS THE CURVE. IT IS NOT JUST THE FRONT END BUT SELLING THE FRONT END WOULD PROBABLY BE BETTER AND WOULD NOT RISK OF THE U.S. GIVEN THE PRESSURE WE HAVE SEEN IN THE LONG AND PART OF THE CURVE IN THE U.S. AS WELL. AVRIL: ON THE CURVE, THE FIVE-YEAR IS IN FOCUS IN JAPAN GIVEN THE AUCTION RESULTS FROM A COUPLE OF HOURS OF NOW. WHAT ARE WE EXPECTING IN TERMS OF WHETHER INVESTORS STAY MORE CAUTIOUS GIVEN THE DATA WE HAVE GOTTEN ON WAGES IN JAPAN?
它们更具流动性且更容易出售是一方面。日本可能在收益率曲线的各个期限都拥有国债。不仅仅是前端，抛售前端可能更好，并且不会给美国带来风险，鉴于我们在美国长期和部分曲线部分所看到的压力。艾弗尔：关于收益率曲线，五年期是日本关注的焦点，因为几小时前拍卖的结果。鉴于我们从日本工资数据中获得的信息，我们预计投资者是否会更加谨慎？
RUTH: ABSOLUTELY. ON ONE HAND, WE DO HAVE STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED WAGES DATA. THAT BACKS THE CASE FOR A HIKE. IF THAT IS THE CASE, DO YOU REALLY WANT TO BUY BONDS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT? AT THE SAME TIME, FIVE-YEAR IS NOT EXACTLY A LOVED DURATION SO FOR A LOT OF INVESTORS WHO MIGHT BE LOOKING FOR SOME VALUE, THEY MIGHT LOOK AT IT AND SAY WE WILL TAKE A NIBBLE. THAT SAID, I STILL REMEMBER IT WAS ABOUT A WEEK AGO WHERE WE HAD A TWO-YEAR AUCTION AND EVERYONE WENT FOR THE FRIDAY LUNCH HIS THINKING IT'S TWO YEARS, IT WILL GO WITHOUT A HITCH AND WE HAD A TERRIBLE RESULT.
露丝：绝对如此。一方面，我们有超出预期的强劲工资数据。这支持加息的观点。如果是这种情况，你真的想在这个环境中购买债券吗？同时，五年期并不是一个非常受欢迎的久期，所以对于许多可能正在寻找价值的投资者来说，他们可能会看一下并说我们会尝试少量买入。话虽如此，我仍然记得大约一周前我们进行了一次两年期拍卖，每个人都冲着周五午餐去，心想这是两年期，它会顺利进行，结果却糟透了。
THIS IS FIVE YEARS, LET'S SEE WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE COMING HOURS. YVONNE: ALL RIGHT, RUTH, THANK YOU. THERE TALKING A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT YEN AND WHAT IS GOING ON RIGHT NOW. ONE THING IS THAT STORE AND THEN THERE'S THE OTHER MACRO OVERLAY WHICH IS OIL RESUMING ITS RISE ON TENSIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. CHINA HAS REEMERGED AS A BUYER FOR CRUDE FROM ACROSS THE WORLD. FOR MORE, LET'S BRING IN ANTHONY STEPHENS. TALK TO US MORE ABOUT THESE NEW DEVELOPMENTS ABOUT WHERE CHINA IS BUYING AND HOW THAT IS LIFTING PRICES.
现在是五年期，让我们看看接下来几个小时会发生什么。伊冯娜：好的，露丝，谢谢你。我们再稍微谈谈日元以及目前的情况。一件事是库存，还有另一个宏观背景是石油因中东紧张局势而恢复上涨。中国已重新成为全球原油买家。更多详情，让我们请安东尼·斯蒂芬斯加入。跟我们多谈谈这些关于中国购买来源的新发展，以及这如何推高价格。
ANTHONY: IT IS INTERESTING THAT OIL HAS BEEN TRAVELING HIGHER BUT VOLATILITY HAS BEEN TRAVELING LOWER. THERE IS LESS PANIC NOW AND MORE GRADUALLY DIVERSIFY SOURCES OF ENERGY INPUTS. IT IS A MORE RELAXED VERSION OF RE-STOCKPILING. NOW THIS GEOGRAPHICAL DIVERSIFICATION IS THE SHOCK OBSERVER -- ABSORBER ON THE WAY UP. CHINA IS BUYING MORE OIL TO KIND OF RE-STOCKPILE AND STATE REFINERS ARE NOW THE BIG PLAYERS. IT IS NO LONGER THE REFINER'S BOLICK -- BUYING OIL FROM SMALLER DISTRIBUTIONS.
安东尼：有趣的是，油价持续走高，但波动性却在下降。如今的恐慌情绪减少，人们更倾向于逐步多元化能源投入来源。这是一种更为从容的补库行为。如今这种地理多元化起到了缓冲作用——在价格上涨过程中吸收冲击。中国正在购买更多石油以进行某种形式的战略储备，国有炼厂现在成为主要参与者。这不再是炼油商的博弈——从较小的分销渠道采购石油。
YOU HAVE PEOPLE REALLY DOING THE STATE TO STATE COOPERATION. DEALS ACROSS AFRICA, LATIN AMERICA AND IT IS A VIRTUOUS CIRCLE OF CHINA CAPITALIZING AMIDST LONG-TERM INVESTMENT IN THESE COUNTRIES, ESPECIALLY AFRICA. UGANDA HAS A OF CRUDE. THAT IS BEING MARKETED BY THE CHINESE. THERE IS POSITIVE REPERCUSSION. CHINA AS A WHOLE MAY HAVE SEEN PEAK OIL ALREADY. CHINA MAY HAVE SEEN PEAK OIL LAST YEAR. THAT BEING SAID, AS THEY CONTINUE TO REPLENISH THIS, IT MIGHT PUSH OIL UP AT THE MARGIN BUT IN A COLLECTED KIND OF MENTOR. -- MANNER.
你看到人们真正在开展国家间合作。在非洲、拉丁美洲等地达成的协议形成了一个良性循环，中国资本在这些国家长期投资中获益，尤其是在非洲。乌干达拥有大量原油，目前正由中国方面进行营销推广。这带来了积极反响。就整体而言，中国可能已经见顶石油需求。中国可能在去年就已达到石油需求峰值。话虽如此，随着他们继续补充库存，可能会在边际上推高油价，但以一种有序的方式。
AVRIL: WE HAVE SEEN HOW EM ASIA HAS TAKEN THE OIL SHOCK IN STRIDE. WHAT ARE YOU SEEING IN
艾弗尔：我们已经看到亚洲新兴市场如何从容应对石油冲击。你在
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