美打击伊朗油轮致油价上涨，霍尔木兹海峡风险加剧

ABEER: GOOD MORNING. THIS IS HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA. OUR TOP STORIES. TENSIONS ESCALATED. OIL CLIMBS AFTER U.S. STRIKES ON IRANIAN VESSELS AND TEHRAN THREATENS A NEW RESTRICTED ZONE NEAR HORMUZ, RAISING RISKS TO ENERGY FLOWS. BEIJING BANK BOASTS CHINA PUMPS INTO MAJOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AS IT LOOKS TO GIVE LENDERS MORE FIREPOWER TO SHORE UP GROWTH AND FINANCIAL STABILITY. AND GERMANY'S FAR RIGHT AFD POSTS ITS STRONGEST ELECTION RESULT EVER, DELIVERING A SETBACK TO CHANCELLOR FREDERICK MERTZ AND CHALLENGING THE COUNTRY'S POLITICAL ESTABLISHMENT.

IT'S JUST GONE 8:00 A.M. ACROSS THE EMIRATES. I'M A BEER ABU OMAR -- BEER ABU OMAR -- ABEER ABU OMAR. THIS MORNING .1% FOLLOWING A PERFORMANCE AFTER THAT JOBS REPORT CAME STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED. WE HAVE TO NOTE THAT THE NASDAQ 100 CLOSED IN THE GREEN. A GAUGE FOR SEMICONDUCTORS DID CLOSE 3% OR SO HIGHER AND THAT IS REFLECTING INTO THE ASIAN PICTURE THIS MORNING. ASIAN EQUITIES 1% HIGHER LED BY, NO SURPRISE, THE SOUTH KOREA -- BRENT CRUDE .9% HIGHER, ABOUT 1% HIGHER AS ESCALATIONS BETWEEN THE U.S.

AND IRAN CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST TIT FOR TAT IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE A WHILE. AND THEN BITCOIN, THERE IS A SURPRISE THERE. I WOKE UP IT WAS ABOVE $80,000 NOW. IT IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THAT MARK. IT IS DROPPING .4%. THE QUESTION ABOUT BITCOIN SUSTAINING ABOVE THAT $80,000 MARK STILL LINGERS BUT THEN SOMETHING ELSE TO NOTE, IN THE UNITED STATES LATER THIS WEEK ON WEDNESDAY WE ARE GOING TO SEE THAT BUYBACK PUSHED STARTING THE ONE ANNOUNCED BY SCOTT BESSENT OF COURSE.

AND ON FRIDAY THE BIG CPI REPORT INFLATION WILL SOLIDIFY THE MARKETS BETS BOOKS ON WHETHER THE FED IS IN FACT GOING TO HIKE RATES LATER THIS MONTH. FOR A LOOK AT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN ASIAN MARKETS THIS MORNING WE HAVE ANTHONY STEPHENS IN HONG KONG. WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING AT?

IT'S A DAY ENDING IN Y AND AI IS DRIVING THE BUS. VERY STRONG GAINS IN JAPAN, KOREA AND TAIWAN. TAIWAN IN PARTICULAR IS A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS AWAY FROM NEW RECORDS HIGH. SO WHAT'S DRIVING THIS OPTIMISM? THE FACT THAT GPT SIX FROM OPENAI IS A MORE COMPLEX MODEL AND IS BEING USED TO DO A WIDER RANGE OF THINGS OVER THE WEEKEND. PEOPLE ARE GETTING OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE USE CASE FOR COMPUTER PROCESSING POWER AND MEMORY AND THAT IS DRIVING THE GATES UNDER THE HOOD HERE.

HONG KONG IS A NOTABLE EXCEPTION. LET'S FIND OUT WHY. THE REASON FOR THAT EXCEPTION IS THE FACT THAT CHINA'S MASSIVE CAPITAL INJECTION HAS COME FROM THE SHARE MARKET. THE CHINESE HAVE RAISED MONEY FROM THE SHARE PRICES IN THE BANK. HUGE SHARE PLACEMENT. THE MINISTER OF FINANCE IS SUBSCRIBING. THEY HAVE OVERHANG THEY ARE NOT SUBSCRIBING TO AND THAT'S WEIGHING ON THE BANKING INDEX. THE REST OF THE MARKET IS GETTING THE MESSAGE THAT THE CHINESE ARE STARTING TO THINK ABOUT STIMULATING THE ECONOMY AND THAT IS LINING UP WITH AN UPGRADE CYCLE IN THE TECH SPACE.

PRETTY STRONG GAINS. IN TERMS OF BROADER MACRO, BOTH OF THE YUAN AND CHINESE BONDS ARE SAYING SHOW US THE EASING FIRST, THEN WE WILL BELIEVE YOU. THEY ARE VERY FLAT TO START. ABEER: THANK YOU FOR THOSE MARKET MOVES, ANTHONY STEPHENS IN HONG KONG. LET'S RETURN TO THE GEOPOLITICAL STORY AND THE OIL STORY. PRICES OF BRENT CLIMATE IS THE LATEST ESCALATION BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN RAISES FRESH CONCERNS ABOUT SHIPPING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

WASHINGTON STRUCK THREE IRANIAN CRUDE TANKERS OVER THE WEEKEND, DESTROYING ONE, WHILE TEHRAN SAYS IT RETALIATED AGAINST U.S. VESSELS AND IS NOW THREATENING A NEW RESTRICTED ZONE OUTSIDE OF THE STRAIGHT. DESPITE THE GROWING RISKS WASHINGTON SAYS THE U.S. NAVY IS KEEPING MILLIONS OF BARRELS OF OIL MOVING THROUGH HORMUZ.

YES. IT IS THE U.S. NAVY THAT'S ASSURING THAT THIS FLOW COMES OUT. WE WISH IRAN WOULD STOP DOING WHAT THEY ARE DOING BUT WE ARE DEGRADING THEIR CAPACITIES TO DO THAT AND WE ARE LEARNING AND GETTING BETTER AND BETTER AT DEFENDING FROM THEIR ATTACKS. SO THIS IS A LOSING GAME FOR IRAN. ABEER: SUSTAINING THE U.S. OPERATION IS ALSO RAISING QUESTIONS ABOUT MILITARY RESOURCES, PARTICULARLY MORE MUNITIONS THAT COULD BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE.

FOR AN IRANIAN SCENARIO, THE U.S. MILITARY HAS A TON OF THESE. THEY STILL HAVE A LOT OF DIFFERENT OPTIONS IN THE ARSENAL. IT IS SOME OF THE EXQUISITE ONES BOTH ON LONG-RANGE PRECISION MUNITIONS AS WELL AS THE INTERCEPTORS THAT WE ARE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT FOR AN INDO PACIFIC THEATER ENGAGEMENT BECAUSE THAT'S WHERE YOU NEED HIGHER LEVEL OF SOPHISTICATION AND THAT'S WHERE YOU ARE SEEING THE URGENCY AND DEMAND RIGHT NOW.

ABEER: WE ARE JOINED BY PAUL WALLACE. GOOD TO HAVE YOU WITH US. ANOTHER ESCALATION OVER THE WEEKEND STARTING WITH THE U.S. DESTROYING ONE VESSEL, DOWNING ANOTHER VESSEL AND THEN IRAN RETALIATING. WHAT IS THE STATE RIGHT NOW OF THIS TIT FOR TAT AND CERTAINLY A RETURN TO DIPLOMACY?

I THINK THE ODDS FOR A RETURN TO SERIOUS DIPLOMACY AT THE MOMENT ARE PRETTY SLIM. WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS I THINK MORE AGGRESSIVE HOSTILITIES IN THE SORT OF TANKER ARENA IF YOU LIKE. WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND WAS THE U.S. BE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN IT'S BEEN FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND ACTUALLY SINKING AND AS YOU SAID DESTROYING SOME IRANIAN OIL TANKERS. THAT WAS IN RESPONSE TO IRAN AGAIN FIRING ON SHIPS GOING THROUGH HORMUZ AND ALSO U.S.

NAVAL VESSELS. THEY DIDN'T ACTUALLY SEVERELY DAMAGE ANY IN THEIR ATTACKS OVER THE WEEKEND SO THE FACT THE U.S. HAS DECIDED TO ACTUALLY SINK SOME SHIPS SHOWS HOW WORRIED THE AMERICANS ARE. YES THEY ARE GETTING MILLIONS OF BARRELS OF CRUDE ON AVERAGE EACH DAY THROUGH THE STRAIGHT BUT IT IS STILL WAY LESS THAN PREWAR LEVELS AND THEY ARE ONLY ABLE TO DO IT WITH A LOT OF U.S. MILITARY BACKUP AS THE ENERGY SECRETARY SAID, THIS IS HAPPENING BECAUSE OF WHAT THE U.S.

MILITARY IS DOING IS PUTTING A LOT OF STRAIN ON THE U.S. MILITARY. AND AMERICA COULD BE GETTING TO THE POINT WHERE IT'S HAD ENOUGH AND IT IS ALMOST SAYING, YOU HIT ONE TANKER, WE WILL TAKE OUT ONE OF YOURS. THE BACKDROP AS WELL TO ALL THIS IS THAT ENERGY PRICES CONTINUE TO GO UP. CRUDE IS NEAR 100 BUT THAT'S NOT REALLY THE MAIN THING. IT'S REFINED PRODUCTS LIKE DIESEL. DIESEL IN THE U.S. IS ALMOST AT SIX DOLLARS A GALLON.

THAT’'S WHERE YOU ARE REALLY SEEING THE PINCH. ABEER: CHRIS WRIGHT HAD SAID THE UNITED STATES WILL KEEP ON WHAT IT'S DOING IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ UNLESS I GOVERNMENT CHANGE HAPPENS IN IRAN AND UNLESS IRAN DOES NOT STOP WHAT IT DOES IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THAT BRINGS ME TO THE ARGUMENT ABOUT THE MUNITIONS AND IT'S BEEN BROUGHT UP A LOT OVER THE PAST COUPLE MONTHS. DOES THE U.S. HAVE ENOUGH MUNITIONS ON MILITARY POWER TO KEEP THIS ON INDEFINITELY?

THE U.S. SAYS YES IT DOES. WE HEARD FROM WAYNE SANDERS, IF IT REALLY WANTS TO KEEP THIS UP THE U.S. CAN DO THAT. IT'S GOT PROBLEMS DEPENDING ON THE TYPE OF MUNITION. IF WE GO BACK TO THE ALL-OUT WAR WE SAW IN MARCH AND EARLY APRIL THAN AMERICA AND ITS ALLIES IN THE REGION PROBABLY HAVE ISSUES WITH DEFENSIVE MISSILES, INTERCEPTORS AND THAT TYPE OF THINGS. BUT IN TERMS OF OFFENSIVE WEAPONS NEEDED FOR THINGS LIKE HITTING IRANIAN TANKERS AND IRANIAN DRONE MAKING AND MISSILE CENTERS, THE U.S.

IS OK WITH THAT. IRAN HAS A SAY IN THIS AND THE NUMBER OF WEAPONS AMERICA HAS TO USE OBVIOUSLY DEPENDS HUGELY ON HOW MUCH IRAN DECIDES TO LASH OUT. BIGGER PICTURE CERTAINLY THE SHARE USAGE OF SOME OF THE MOST -- AMERICAN WEAPONRY IS A PROBLEM FOR THE U.S. AND WILL BE IN TERMS OF RESTOCKING THOSE WEAPONS FOR YEARS TO COME. ABEER: LET'S FOCUS ON WHAT REALLY MATTERS FOR MARKETS AND IT'S THE PRICE OF OIL AND CRUDE PRODUCTS AS WELL.

GOLDMAN PUT OUT REPORTS SUGGESTING EVE THESE TIT FOR TAT STRIKES CONTINUE TO HAPPEN WE COULD SEE OIL RETURNING TO THE $120 MARKET SO WE ARE GOING BACK TO A DEJA VU. THE IMPACT ON OIL MARKETS IS STILL VERY MUCH THERE. WHAT IS THE PROSPECT OF THAT ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE OPEC MEETING WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND?

OIL HAS BEEN TAKING UP SINCE WE SAW THE LATEST BOUT OF HOSTILITIES IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO. WE ARE NOW ABOVE $97 FOR BRENT, CLOSING IN ON $100. REFINED PRODUCTS ARE GOING UP EVEN

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