德国极右翼AfD创州选纪录，美伊冲突推升油价至97美元

FROM DUBAI, THIS IS BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK: EUROPE. I AM ABEER WITH YOUR TOP STORIES. ENERGY PRICES CLIMB ON FRESH ESCALATION BETWEEN U.S. AND IRAN AS BOTH SIDES HAVE THEIR LARGEST TRACTS OF THE CONFLICT. GERMANY'S FAR RIGHT AFD SECURES ITS STRONGEST EVER STATE ELECTION RESULT, ADDING TO PRESSURE ON CHANCELLOR FREDERICK MERTZ. FRENCH NATIONAL RALLY PRESIDENT JORDAN BAR EXCLUSIVELY THAT UKRAINE SHOULD PAY FOR EUROPEAN SUPPORT.

THIS IS AS PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY SAYS HE EXPECTS WORK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WINTER DESPITE U.S. TALKS. HAPPY MONDAY. LET'S GET RIGHT INTO WHAT MARKETS ARE DOING THIS MONDAY MORNING. IT'S LABOR DAY IN THE UNITED STATES SO CASH TRADING ON TREASURIES IS CLOSED. WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON ASIAN EQUITIES TILTING A LITTLE BIT HIGHER TODAY, 1.3% HIGHER, TAKING THEIR CUE FROM HOW TECH HAD PERFORMED AT THE CLOSE ON FRIDAY AT THE S&P.

WE SAW THE CAGE 3% OR SO HIGHER. MASTEC 100 GAINED AS WELL -- NASDAQ 100 GAINED AS WELL. KEEPING AN EYE ON THE KOSPI WHICH IS 4.2% HIGHER THIS MORNING. NO SURPRISE THERE. SAINT-SAENS, SK HYNIX, THE TWO LARGEST CONSTITUENTS ARE LEADING THE GAINS THERE. EURO STOXX 50 FUTURES TILTING A LITTLE BIT LOWER THIS MORNING, POINTING TO A NEGATIVE START IN EUROPE AT THE START LATER TODAY. IF WE FLIP THE BOARD, WE TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT COMMODITIES ARE DOING AND BRENT CRUDE PRICES ARE EDGING HIGHER, 1% HIGHER. $97 ON THE BARREL, EDGING VERY CLOSE TO THAT $100 ON THE BARREL MARK.

GOLDMAN SACHS HAD POINTED OUT THAT WE COULD SEE OIL PRICES AT $120 IF THE TIT-FOR-TAT ESCALATIONS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ CONTINUE AND PART OF THE SAME STORY IS NATURAL GAS. FUTURES ARE 4% HIGHER. THAT DISCONNECT BETWEEN WHAT OIL HAS DONE AND CRUDE PRODUCTS HAVE DONE HAS CONTINUED AND IT'S NOT JUST NATURAL GAS. IT'S ALSO DIESEL IN THE UNITED STATES THAT IS AT A RECORD HIGH AS OF NOW. BLOOMBERG U.S. DOLLAR INDEX NOT DOING MUCH THIS MORNING, FLAT PERFORMANCE ALTHOUGH IT DID WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT AFTER THAT JOBS REPORT THAT CAME OUT ON FRIDAY.

WE KEEP AN EYE OUT ON INFLATION THAT COMES OUT AT THE END OF THIS WEEK. SOME OF THE RISK EVENTS WE ARE WATCHING OUT FOR THIS WEEK, ON WEDNESDAY, THE TREASURY BEGINS ITS EXPANDED BOND BUYBACKS AND ASKED BY SCOTT BESSENT IN AUGUST. THURSDAY, ECB DECISION. FRIDAY AS I MENTIONED, THAT U.S. CPI REPORT COMES OUT. A LOT TO GET INTO FOR THE SHOW TODAY. LET'S GET YOU STARTED. A LOT OF TECH OPTIMISM THIS MORNING. ASIAN STOCKS IN EARLY TRADE.

LET'S SEE HOW MARKETS IN ASIA ARE FARING WITH ANTHONY STEPHENS STANDING IN HONG KONG FOR THIS. WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING AT? ANTHONY: THE GAINS ARE ACCELERATING AS THE SESSION GOES ON. KOREA LEADING THE WAY, UP 4%, ON THE BACK OF THE HUGE MOVE IN HYNEK'S HERE. THERE IS A LOT OF OPTIMISM AROUND THE NEW CAPABILITIES OF GPT SIX AND HOW MUCH FURTHER USERS ARE TAKING AI ON THE MARCH TOWARDS AGI AND THAT IS REALLY DRIVING UP ACROSS THE CHAIN.

YOU SEE MEDIATECH WITH CUSTOM CHIPS FOR THE HYPERSCALERS AND SOFTBANK WHICH IS THE DIRECT PLAYER FOR OPENAI, UP 2.4 PERCENT. THAT IS A REALLY BIG MOVE. THIS MSCI ASIA-PACIFIC MOVE TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THAT CHINA IS DOWN. LET'S SEE WHY CHINA IS DOWN. HANNAH HAS DONE A HUGE CAPITAL INJECTION INTO ITS BANKS, FUNDED BY PLACEMENTS IN ITS SHARE MARKETS SO AS A RESULT, YOU DO SEE THE DEVOLUTION IN THE INSURANCE COMPANIES. THEY ARE LAGGING BUT THE MARKET IS STARTING TO FLOW INTO TECH.

TENNIS TECH SECTOR HAS BEEN DOING REALLY WELL. IT'S BENEFITING FROM THE BROAD OPTIMISM. OVERALL, THE BANKS ARE SUCH A HEAVY PART OF THE INDEX THAT THE MSCI CHINA IS WEAK. FLIP THE BOARD AND WE CAN GO INTO ASIA'S OTHER GIANT, JAPAN, WHICH HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING MACRO SITUATION. WE ARE HAVING THIS HUGE DISPERSION WITH THE TECH HEAVY NIKKEI AND THE DOMESTIC TOPIX. THEY EXPECT THE DOJ TO DO SOMETHING TO STEM THE SLIDE IN THE YEN.

WHAT HAS BEEN INTERESTING IS THE JAPANESE HAVE MANAGED TO MOVE THE END TO THIS 156 LEVEL AND YOU HAVE GOLDMAN SAYING THAT THE CONDITIONS FOR TECHNICAL RALLY IN THE YEN ARE -- THERE IS SOME DATA THAT THEY MIGHT BE TRIMMING THEIR HOLDINGS TO FUND THAT SO LET'S WATCH JGB'S AND YEN AS THE WEEK CONTINUES INTO U.S. CPI. ABEER: ANTHONY, THANK YOU AS ALWAYS FOR KEEPING AN EYE ON THE MOVES IN ASIA OF COURSE. RETURNING BACK TO THE STORY OUT OF THE MIDDLE EAST, ENERGY PRICES ARE CLIMBING.

RENEWED ESCALATION BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN RAISES FRESH CONCERNS ABOUT SHIPPING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. WASHINGTON STRUCK THREE IRANIAN CRUDE TANKERS OVER THE WEEKEND, DESTROYING ONE. TEHRAN SAYS IT RETALIATED AGAINST U.S. LINKED VESSELS AND IS NOW THREATENING A NEW RESTRICTED ZONE. FOR MORE, WE ARE JOINED BY BLOOMBERG'S PAUL WALLACE WHO LEADS OUR COVERAGE OF THE ECONOMY AND GOVERNMENT OUT OF DUBAI WHEN IT COMES TO THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA.

PAUL, GOOD TO HAVE YOU ON. WHAT MORE DO WE KNOW ABOUT THIS LATEST ROUND OF ESCALATIONS? IT SEEMS THAT THIS IS QUITE HEAVY ESCALATION ON TOP OF MILITARY ESCALATION THAT WE SAW AT THE START OF LAST WEEK OF COURSE. PAUL: EXACTLY AND I THINK IT'S QUITE SIGNIFICANT WITH JUST WHAT ACTIONS THE U.S. TOOK IN TERMS OF TANKERS OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FACT THAT IT SUNK ONE TANKER, EFFECTIVELY SET OUT TO DESTROY THE ONES IT ATTACKED.

I THINK THAT SHOWS THAT THE AMERICANS ARE NOW SEEMINGLY -- THEY WILL BE VERY AGGRESSIVE AGAINST IRANIAN SHIPS EVERY TIME, EITHER A TANKER GOING TO THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS TARGETED OR OF COURSE THE U.S. NAVAL VESSEL. WE DID SEE U.S. NAVAL VESSELS TARGETED BY IRAN OVER THE WEEKEND SO THAT POINTS TWO, AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM HOSTILITIES WORSENING IN THE TANKER ARENA AND THE EFFECT OF THAT IS ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING TO NEED TO PUT EVEN MORE PRESSURE ON ENERGY PRICES.

ABEER: GOLDMAN SAYING 120 IF THEY CONTINUE SO DEFINITELY A SPACE TO WATCH OUT FOR. THANK YOU OF COURSE AS ALWAYS. BLOOMBERG'S PAUL WALLACE WHO COVERS THE MIDDLE EAST ECONOMY AND GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS. NOW INVESTORS ARE BRACING FOR TURBULENCE WITH A SERIES OF MARKET CATALYSTS IN THE COMING DAYS AND THIS INCLUDES MORE DETAIL ON U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY SCOTT BESSENT'S BOND BUYBACKS PLAN. A LIKELY RATE HIKE FROM THE ECB U.S.

INFLATION DATA LATER ON FRIDAY SO THAT'S BRING IN MARK CRANFIELD, BLOOMBERG AND LIVE STRATEGIST TO DISCUSS WHAT EXACTLY THESE MOVES ARE GOING TO ENTAIL. WHAT DO YOU EXPECT TO BE THE BIGGEST DRIVERS ESSENTIALLY FOR MARKETS THIS WEEK AND HOW DOES THE JOBS REPORT THAT COMES OUT -- THAT HAD COME OUT CHANGED THE SET UP FOR THESE MARKET MOVES?

YOU CANNOT REALLY SAY THAT THE JOBS REPORT HAS MADE A HUGE DIFFERENCE. I THINK PEOPLE WERE ALREADY EXPECTING THAT THIS WEEK WOULD BE A VERY BIG WEEK IN THE TREASURY MARKET IN THE U.S. INCLUDING WITH THE CPI REPORT AT THE END OF THE WEEK SO THAT JOBS DATA WAS BETTER THAN EXPECTED BUT THE INFLATION NUMBERS ARE WAY MORE IMPORTANT IN TERMS OF WHAT THE FED WILL DO. IN THE MEANTIME, WE HAVE THREE VERY SIGNIFICANT TREASURY AUCTIONS, PARTICULARLY THE 10 YEAR AND 30 YEAR PLUS WE HAVE THE BUYBACK COMING IN FROM THE U.S.

TREASURY AS WELL. THERE'S GOING TO BE A LOT OF VOLATILITY IN THE TREASURY CURVE. HOW WILL TRADERS RESPOND TO THOSE BUYBACKS? TYPICALLY, IF YOU WANT THE EXPERIENCE WE HAVE SEEN IN JAPAN, TRADERS PUSH PRICES UP AHEAD OF THE BUYBACK AND THEN THEY COME ALL THE WAY BACK DOWN AGAIN ONCE IT'S OUT OF THE WAY. THE TIMING OF THAT IS NOT GREAT FROM THE U.S. POINT OF VIEW BECAUSE THE 30 YEAR OPTION COMES AFTER THE BUYBACKS HAVE BEEN SET.

THAT CAN PUT A LOT OF PRESSURE ONTO THE LONGEST END OF THE CURVE WHICH IS THE MOST SENSITIVE TO U.S. MORTGAGE RATES AS WELL. TRADERS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RELAX REALLY UNTIL THEY GET TO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE DAY AFTER DAY, THERE WILL BE MORE THINGS IN THE TREASURY MARKET THEY NEED TO RESPOND TO. IF THERE IS WEAKNESS THERE, IT COULD BE REINFORCED BY WHAT IS HAPPENING IN JAPAN AS WELL. GETTING READY FOR THE BANK OF JAPAN MEETING.

LIKELY TO HAVE MORE VOLATILITY AFTER THE GERMAN RESULTS OVER THE WEEKEND. ONE WILL JUST FEED INTO ANOTHER AND BOND MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE THEIR OWN TURMOIL REGARDLESS OF WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE EQUITY SPACE. WE HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE. EQUITY TRADERS CAN FOC