Bloomberg Money:美国就业数据与通胀压力分析
Bloomberg Money: Premium Travel, Fast Fashion, Luxury at the US Open & The Cost of College |...
涵盖就业、通胀与实际工资的宏观核心指标变动及能源成本冲击,对理解当前美国经济基本面有直接参考价值。
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有些人把 ChatGPT 当作某种智能搜索引擎,有些人用它来完成任务。ChatGPT Work 是 ChatGPT 中的一种全新工作方式,它可以在你的应用和文件之间采取行动,如果需要的话可以陪伴一个项目数小时,并将目标转化为完成的工作。它旨在帮助你从混乱的起点迈向可审查的第一个版本。因此,所有你必须费力梳理才能转化为有用内容的源材料、简报和零散信息,都可以直接变成有用的东西。
Put ChachiPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at chachept.com by selecting work mode available on plus and pro plans. As industries evolve faster than ever, companies need an environment that accelerates strategic growth. And Michigan delivers on that promise. From emerging startups to global enterprises, Michigan offers what executives value most. A resilient, innovative ecosystem, diverse communities that attract top talent, and a quality of life that supports work life balance.
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With our unified team Michigan approach, businesses scale faster and compete at the highest level. Michigan, pure opportunity. Seize your opportunity at michigan business.org. Healthcare doesn't always work great. If you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment, you get it. That's the kind of stuff Optum is changing. They're using data and technology to integrate patient care, pharmacy, and everything else.
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So, healthcare is connected, not complicated. What's that look like? Cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get and care that looks at the whole person, how you need it. Optimum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Learn more at business.optum.com. Bloomberg Audio Studios. podcasts, radio, news.
因此,医疗保健变得互联而非复杂。具体是什么样的呢?更便宜且更容易获取的处方,以及关注整体个人需求、符合你所需方式的护理。Optum 正帮助实现让每个人都能顺畅运作的医疗保健体系。更多信息请访问 business.optum.com。彭博音频工作室。播客、广播、新闻。
Bloomberg Money.
彭博理财。
This is the Bloomberg Money podcast. I'm Tom Keane with Scarlett Fu. Join us each week for a smart look at the forces shaping your financial life on personal finance, on retirement, and wealth management. We will explore how people are earning, investing, and building wealth. We are live Fridays at noon Eastern on Bloomberg television. Subscribe to the podcast wherever you listen and as always on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.
这是彭博理财播客。我是汤姆·基恩,与斯卡莱特·福一起。每周加入我们,以明智的视角审视塑造你财务生活的力量,涵盖个人理财、退休规划和财富管理。我们将探讨人们如何赚钱、投资和积累财富。我们每周五中午(东部时间)在彭博电视现场直播。在你收听播客的任意平台订阅,当然也可以在彭博终端和彭博商业应用程序上找到我们。
Good everyone. A special edition of Bloomberg Money on Personal Finance Retirement. wealth management, the joys of Labor Day, the children go back to school. We're going to talk to Lisa Mateo about that. There were tears. She took the careful.
大家好。这是一期关于个人理财、退休规划和财富管理的彭博理财特别版。劳动节的喜悦,孩子们要回学校了。我们将就此采访丽莎·马特奥。她流下了眼泪。她小心翼翼地处理了这一切。
Yes, I know. But but you know what? We'll we'll get through it. We we we'll be right back.
是的,我知道。但是,但你知道怎么吗?我们会挺过去的。我们我们我们会马上回来。
We'll somehow survive. What are you doing Labor Day? I mean, when we're done here, what are you doing?
我们会以某种方式生存下来。你劳动节打算做什么?我是说,我们这里忙完后,你打算做什么?
Uh I'm actually obsessed with this uh this trial, the Lindsy Clansancy trial.
呃,我实际上对这个审判着迷,林赛·克兰森西(Lindsy Clansancy)的审判。
Well, you're the celebrity load. Why did I not?
嗯,你是名人负载。为什么我没有呢?
One hour delay for defense to appeal. So, it could happen anywhere.
辩方上诉延迟一小时。所以,它可能发生在任何地方。
It's happening right now. Breaking news here on Bloomberg Money. Of course, again, it's on personal finance, retirement, and wealth management. We got a really, really interesting show for you today. Coming up, we thought we'd do it. He was so kind to come in. Brian Kelly will be with us who changed the way all of us travel. All of us use our charge card. The guy is absolutely foundational to each and every one of us in our personal finance.
它正在此刻发生。彭博财经(Bloomberg Money)突发新闻。当然,再次强调,这是关于个人理财、退休和财富管理的。今天我们为您准备了一个非常非常有趣的节目。接下来,我们想这样做。他如此友善地来到现场。布莱恩·凯利(Brian Kelly)将与我们在一起,他改变了我们所有人的旅行方式。我们都使用我们的信用卡。这个人绝对是我们每个人在个人理财方面的基础。
He actually wrote the book on it. We're also going to continue the conversation about how we spend our money. Dana Telsey, the authority on specialty retail on the affordability crisis in your closet in apparel. Is fast fashion dead?
他实际上为此写了一本书。我们还将继续讨论我们如何花钱的话题。达纳·特塞尔(Dana Telsey), specialty retail 权威,关于你衣橱里服装的可负担性危机。快时尚死了吗?
Well, fast fashion is dead, but also like like what are they wearing at the tennis tournament? I mean, they're they're draped in Tiffany and draped in this.
嗯,快时尚死了,但也像他们在网球锦标赛上穿什么?我是说,他们身上披着蒂芙尼(Tiffany)和披着这个。
I don't know how you can play tennis with all that popping around. I don't get it.
我不知道你怎么能戴着所有这些叮当作响的东西打网球。我不明白。
We'll have to see on that. That's Dana Telsey to be with us. We're really looking forward uh to that. We've got a great lineup in a few uh moments as well. I think we've got to stagger the stocks uh right now and look at uh what's going on in the stock market. He answers we can do this quickly down 300 points pulling back but he's going to explain why good jobs report stocks go down. I don't get it.
我们将对此拭目以待。达纳·特塞尔将与我们在一起。我们真的很期待那个。我们也将在几分钟后有一个很棒的阵容。我认为我们现在必须错开股票,看看股市发生了什么。他回答我们可以快速做到这一点,下跌300点回调,但他将解释为什么好的就业报告导致股票下跌。我不明白。
Yeah, President Trump doesn't like to see this dynamic and he's made that very clear. Let's look at the cross asset board as well. Stocks are little change on the week. We should note the 10-year yield not doing a whole lot but sitting near the highest in one month. The dollar is slightly higher, but it is down for the weekend. The big mover, of course, the yen strengthening. Oil prices, you can see, down for the first time this week.
是的,特朗普总统不喜欢看到这种动态,他已经明确表示了这一点。让我们也看一下跨资产板。股票本周变化不大。我们应该注意到10年期收益率没有太大波动,但处于一个月来的最高水平附近。美元略高,但周末下跌。最大的变动者,当然是日元走强。油价,你可以看到,本周首次下跌。
However, still above $90 a barrel.
然而,仍然高于每桶90美元。
Very good. We got a great lineup of people, the only three people at Bloomberg that came into the office today. Stacy Vanic Smith is with us. We're thrilled she's with us with everybody's business and all of her good work there. She has to work with Max, you know. I mean, it's
非常好。我们有一批很棒的人,今天是彭博唯一三个来到办公室的人。斯泰西·范尼克·史密斯(Stacy Vanic Smith)与我们在一起。我们很高兴她与我们在一起,处理每个人的业务和她在那里的所有出色工作。她必须与马克斯一起工作,你知道。我是说,它是
I think I think it's that that they get to do this podcast and that they're both in today. I mean, we're just grateful.
我觉得,他们能制作这期播客,而且两人都参与了今天的节目。我是说,我们只是心怀感激。
McKe with us as well. We'll cover the Red Sox Orioles here in a bit, but Mike McKe, of course, importantly on a jobs report, the state of the American economy. And what a special treat. Jeffrey Mason uh with us. Jeff Mason covers the White House and is in this weekend for David Gur Bloomberg this weekend. I mean, it's it's going to be interesting to say the least.
麦克基也和我们在一起。稍后我们将讨论红袜队和金莺队,但麦克基当然更重要的是关于就业报告、美国经济的状况。还有一个特别的惊喜:杰弗里·梅森也在我们这里。杰夫·梅森负责报道白宫,本周末他将在大卫·古尔德的彭博社节目中亮相。我是说,至少可以说这将非常有趣。
Yeah, we've got a good show coming up
是的,我们接下来有一场精彩的节目。
and we'll see. We'll talk about the convention here. uh in a moment. Let me get right to it. Mike McKe, first to you on the job economy. Down last time, up this time. You just blend them together and say state of play.
我们会拭目以待。稍后我们会在这里讨论党代会。让我直接切入正题。麦克基,首先由你来谈谈就业经济。上次下降,这次上升。你只需将它们结合起来,说说当前的局势。
Well, essentially that's what economists are going to do. They're going to look at the three-month moving average, which is about 77,000, which is a good number considering you only need somewhere between 30 and 50 to keep the unemployment rate from rising essentially. uh now that we have a much smaller labor force, although the labor force did grow this last month by quite a bit and that has uh kept the unemployment rate at 4.1%.
嗯,本质上经济学家们正是这么做的。他们会查看三个月的移动平均值,大约是7.7万,考虑到你只需要在3万到5万之间就能防止失业率上升,这是一个不错的数字。嗯,现在我们劳动力规模小得多,尽管上个月劳动力确实大幅增长,这使得失业率保持在4.1%。
I got eight ways to go here. There's just so much to talk about, but the bottom line is there's a wage and there's this inflation. 100% of the people I talk to say, I'm losing ground every single month. Is is is where's the real wage right now?
我这里有八个方面要谈。可说的实在太多了,但关键在于有工资和通胀。我聊过的所有人都说,我每个月都在失去优势。那么现在的实际工资在哪里呢?
Well, they are losing ground every single month. basically average hourly earnings are running below and have been for a couple of months the inflation rate and so yes you're losing ground now not every measure shows that and I had an interesting discussion with the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors who wants to look at average weekly wages because he said those are still outpacing inflation but basically the American people are right they're they're losing ground because the level of prices isn't going down we may see a slowdown in the change, the monthly change, but the level of prices is still high.
嗯,他们确实在每个月都失去优势。基本上,平均小时工资在过去几个月一直低于通货膨胀率,所以是的,你正在失去优势。并非所有指标都显示这一点,我与经济顾问委员会主席进行了一次有趣的讨论,他想看看平均周工资,因为他说这些工资仍然跑赢通胀。但基本上,美国人是对的,他们确实在失去优势,因为价格水平并没有下降。我们可能会看到变化速度的放缓,即月度变化的放缓,但价格水平仍然很高。
Yeah. And that that's proven to be very sticky. Now, speaking of sticky inflation, Stacy, you've been monitoring gas prices and in particular, uh, diesel prices because that is the engine of how we move things, move goods around this country.
是的。事实证明,这种粘性非常强。现在,说到粘性通胀,斯塔西,你一直在监测汽油价格,特别是柴油价格,因为它是推动我们在全国范围内运输货物的引擎。
Yes, this is apparently going to be the most expensive Labor Day ever in terms of gas prices. Uh, but diesel especially is at a record high for all time. $5.85 a gallon. It's up almost 60% over just last year, but also average gas prices up about 30%. If you're for people who are traveling this weekend, it's going to be u the most expensive Labor Day ever.
是的,从油价来看,这显然将成为史上最昂贵的劳动节。呃,但柴油价格尤其创下历史新高,每加仑5.85美元。与去年相比,柴油价格上涨了近60%,而平均汽油价格也上涨了约30%。如果你这个周末要出行,那将是最贵的劳动节。
But diesel, it's a huge deal and it's not in the political discussion.
但柴油是个大问题,而且它并没有进入政治讨论的范畴。
No, because the truckers deal with it and people in Europe deal with it, but it just means that every time you buy something, it becomes more expensive because of their transport.
没有,因为卡车司机和欧洲的人们都在应对这个问题,但这意味着每次你买东西时,都会因为运输成本而变得更贵。
Yeah, but I mean it's $5.85. I think in London is $
是的,但我的意思是5.85美元。我认为伦敦的价格是$
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