非农前美联储官员表态引发加息预期波动

WE LOOK AT THE ECONOMIC DATA EVERY SINGLE DAY. I WOULD SAY IT'S OK BUT IT'S NOT GREAT.

THIS IS A JOB MARKET THAT'S NOT PRODUCING JOBS AT A VERY RAPID RATE.

EMPLOYMENT IS A BIG PART OF THE PICTURE AS WELL.

UNLESS YOU GET AN EXTREME OUTCOME, IT'S NOT GOING TO VETO A HOLD OR A HIKE.

THERE COULD BE A SAVING GRACE DEPENDING ON WHAT THE ECONOMIC DATA NUMBERS LOOK LIKE.

THIS IS BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISA ABRAMOWICZ AND ANNMARIE HORDERN. JONATHAN: LIVE FROM NEW YORK CITY THIS MORNING, GOOD MORNING. BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE STARTS RIGHT NOW. COMING INTO FRIDAY, WAITING FOR PAYROLLS. WALL STREET LOOKING FOR SOLID JOBS REPORT, LEAVING THE FOCUS FIRMLY ON INFLATION. AS CHRIS WALLER RAISING THE BAR FOR RATE HIKES. STOCKS ARE STABLE SO FAR THIS MORNING. LISA: THIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE ERA OF NO FORWARD GUIDANCE AND YET CHRIS WALLER'S COMMENTS SAYING HE WAS SEEING SOME SIGNS OF DISINFLATION AND HE WAS INCLINED TO SUPPORT HOLDING RATES SUPERSEDED ISM SERVICES DATA THAT CAME IN HOTTER THAN EXPECTED WITH THE PRICES RATE COMPONENT COMING IN AT THE HOTTEST PACE IN FOUR YEARS.

RIDDLE ME THIS. ARE WE IN THE POST FORWARD GUIDANCE ERA OR ARE WE IN THE CHRIS WALLER ERA OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE? JONATHAN: I THINK IT'S SAFE TO SAY THIS IS NOT A GREAT WAY OF DOING MONETARY POLICY GOING INTO THE SEPTEMBER MEETING. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A HIKE AND A HOLD RIGHT NOW IS NOT THAT BIG. WE ARE DEALING WITH SOME FINE MARGINS, WHICH MAKES THE CPI REPORT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT THAN IT WAS. THAT'S WHAT IT'S GOING TO COME DOWN TOO.

EVEN BEFORE THE WALLER SPEECH, IT WAS ABOUT CPI IN A FEW FRIDAY'S TIME. LISA: IT'S TRUE OR NOT EXACTLY WHAT PEOPLE WERE WANTING WHEN EVERY SINGLE FED OFFICIAL SAID ONE DATA POINT IS GOING TO MAKE THE DIFFERENCE. CHRIS WALLACE HAD ONE SINGLE DATA POINT IS ABSOLUTELY GOING TO TIP THE SCALES. HE SHOWED THERE WAS A SEVEN BASIS POINT DELTA BETWEEN A STRONGHOLD AND A STRONG HIKE IN SEPTEMBER WHEN IT COMES TO CORE PCE. THOSE ARE THE KINDS OF DATA PARSING'S THAT ARE GOING ON RIGHT NOW ON WALL STREET AND HIGHLIGHTS HOW MUCH OF A TRADING RISK THESE DATA POINTS ARE GOING TO BE.

JONATHAN: IT'S GOING TO COME DOWN TO ONE DATA POINT IN ONE WEEKS TIME AND AN EXTRA DECIMAL PLACE. WHERE IS THE DATA BETWEEN THE FED CHAIR AND THE WILLIAMS AND THE WALLER'S OF THIS WORLD? UNDERLYING INFLATION, WHAT'S THE TREND LOOK LIKE? WILLIAMS BELIEVES THE UNDERLYING TREND IS IMPROVING. YOU HAVE A FED CHAIR SAYING COMPLETELY THE OPPOSITE A WEEK AGO. LISA: NONE OF THIS RELIES ON THE LABOR MARKET. GIVEN THE FACT IT IS JOBS DAY IN AMERICA, IT WOULD MATTER TYPICALLY.

TODAY IT DOESN'T SEEM TO MATTER. ULTIMATELY, THEY ARE LOOKING AT THE SAME DATA BUT IT GOES TO ONE OF THE FIVE TASK FORCES ON THE FED COMMITTEE WHICH ESSENTIALLY IS TAKING A LOOK AT HOW WE MEASURE INFLATION AND WHETHER GAUGES TIED TO AI SHOULD OR SHOULDN'T BE INCLUDED. JONATHAN: THE HIGHS OF THIS WEEK, TWOS WERE CLOSE TO 4.4 ZERO. TENS WERE CLOSE TO FOUR POINT EIGHT. WE ARE DOWN TO 4.35 AND 4.76 RESPECTIVELY. WE ARE LOOKING AT THE DATA TO TELL ME WHY I SHOULD HIKE.

THAT'S THE PERCEPTION SHIFT IN THIS MARKET. THAT IS IMPORTANT. THAT'S WHAT'S UNLOCKED THESE GAINS IN FIXED INCOME AND EQUITIES AS WELL. LISA: THE DAY BEFORE YESTERDAY, WE WERE PRICING IN A 64% CHANCE OF A RATE HIKE. NOW IT'S A 54 PERCENT CHANCE. IT GOT AS HIGH AS ALMOST A COIN FLIP AS A RESULT OF CHRIS WALLER'S COMMENTARY. IS THIS GOOD? IS THIS WHAT THE FED WANTS? YOU WERE ASKING THIS QUESTION YESTERDAY. IS THIS REFRESHING AT A TIME WHEN IT'S UNCLEAR WHAT STRUCTURE THE ECONOMY IS GOING IN.

YOU SEE DIESEL PRICES GOING AT A RECORD PRICE. YOU SEE A 23% GAIN IN DIESEL PRICES AND DIESEL IS THE KEY INPUT FOR WHAT'S SHIPPED TO STORES AROUND THE COUNTRY. WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU? JONATHAN: IT SHOULD NEVER JUST BE ABOUT ONE DATA POINT. I THINK WE CAN AGREE ON THAT. THIS IS A LOUSY WAY OF DOING MONETARY POLICY. BUT I CERTAINLY WELCOME NOT PRE-DETERMINING THE OUTCOME OF A MEETING THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED YET. I WELCOME THERE IS TWO WAY RISK AND I WELCOME THERE WILL BE A DEBATE AROUND THE COMMITTEE INSTEAD OF CHAIRMAN POWELL SAYING WE ARE GOING TO DO THIS, LET'S HAVE A NICE DINNER TOGETHER.

LISA: I DON'T DISAGREE WITH THAT. I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED BY THAT. IF THEY DON'T HIKE RATES AND ARE IMPATIENT WITH INFLATION BEING THE TARGET FOR 65 MONTHS, IS NOT GOING TO COME TO BITE? JONATHAN: EQUITY FUTURES ARE JUST ABOUT UNCHANGED. COMING UP, WE WILL CATCH UP WITH CHRIS GARONNE, JOE CHRYSTIA JOINS US AND MICHAEL GAPEN. CHRISTOPHER OF VERONE SAID THERE IS PRICE ACTION UNDER THE OUT OF THE MARKET. BULLISHNESS IS NOT OVER THE TOP.

THAT UNSETTLED MOVEMENT, WHAT DO YOU .2?

WHAT YOU'VE SEEN BASICALLY SINCE THE MIDDLE PART OF LAST MONTH IS THIS LITTLE MOMENTUM BLEED UNDER THE SURFACE. YOU HAVE SEEN 20 DAY LOWS START TO EXPAND AND YOU HAVE 30% OF THE INDEX MAKING A ONE-MONTH LOW THIS WEEK. WE ARE TRYING TO DECIPHER IS THIS THE TYPICAL SEASONAL PRE-MIDTERM OR IS THERE ACTUALLY SOMETHING CYCLICALLY WEEK STARTING TO STRAIGHT THROUGH THIS MARKET? THAT'S THE BIG QUESTION AS WE SET UP NOT JUST THE PAYROLLS TODAY AND CPI NEXT WEEK, IT'S HOW ARE WE STARTING TO SAY SOME CYCLICAL DETERIORATION WHERE YOU WOULD NOT BE HIKING INTO A STRONG ECONOMY, YOU WOULD BE HIKING INTO A WEAKER ONE.

JONATHAN: WHERE ARE YOU SEEING THAT WITH BOND MARKET? CHRIS: WARSH CAME INTO JACKSON HOLE WITH A MORE HAWKISH SPEAKS AND GET YOU HAD BOND YIELDS GO UP AND CYCLICAL STOCKS TAKEN ON THE CHIN. YOU COULD SAY SOME OF THE IS TIED TO THE BACKLASH ON THE AI BUILD OUT HERE. BUT I THINK ON BALANCE, THERE HAS BEEN SOME MODEST DETERIORATION TO THE CYCLICAL CORNERS OF THE MARKET. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE ARE NOT SEEING IT IN CREDIT HERE AT ALL.

IT'S A BIG DIFFERENCE FROM LATE 2021 INTO 2022 WHEN IT WAS CLEAR THE FED WAS BEHIND THE CURVE. YOU ARE SEEING CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. I THINK THE TWO YEAR WAS 200 BASIS POINTS ABOVE THE FED FUND RATE. YOU'RE NOT SEEING THAT TYPE OF MESSAGE BUT WE SHOULD HAVE THE ANTENNA UP A LITTLE BIT THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME CYCLICAL DETERIORATION INTO GROUPS LIKE DISCRETIONARY. LISA: IS THE JOBS WERE FOR SIDE BET? CHRIS: THE ESTIMATES IS 55,000 JOBS.

I WOULDN'T DISMISS IT. IF WE PRINT A NEGATIVE PRINT HERE, THE THREE-MONTH AVERAGE ON PAYROLLS WOULD BE THE LOWEST EVER IF WE GOT A HIKE. THE PRESIDENT FOR HIKING WITH NEGATIVE THREE-MONTH AVERAGE PAYROLLS, YOU'VE NEVER SEEN IT BEFORE. I STILL THINK THE BAR IS PROBABLY HIGHER FOR A RATE HIKE IN TWO WEEKS. I THINK TODAY'S PRINT MATTERS. ONE OF THE IRONIES IS WHEN WE THINK ABOUT PC OR CPI, WE ARE SPENDING A LOT OF TIME ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE DECIMAL WHEN WE WERE SUPPOSED TO SPEND VERY LITTLE TIME ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE DECIMAL.

THERE'S A LOT OF EMPHASIS ON WHAT IS PCA OR WHAT IS CPI HERE, WHEN I'M NOT SURE WE WANT TO BE MAKING MONETARY POLICY ON ONE PRINT. LISA: ONE SIDE OF THE DECIMAL -- ONE DAY IT WAS THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE DECIMAL POINT AND THE OTHER DAY IT WAS THE LEFT. I WONDER IF IT'S GOING TO DO SO BECAUSE OF A WEAKENING. OR THEY DON'T WANT TO HIKE INTO DISINFLATION. THAT'S BAD FOR STOCKS, ISN'T IT? WHERE EVERYONE IS NOT PRICING IN ANYTHING CLOSE TO A SLOWDOWN?

CHRIS: WHAT I'M TRYING TO FIGURE OUT, I THINK JOHN, YOU CAN DO THAT WITH THE OPENING QUESTION, IS THE MARKET UNSETTLED BECAUSE THE FED IS NOT GOING TO HIKE AND THEY SHOULD? OR IS THE MARKET UNSETTLED BECAUSE WE ARE ABOUT TO HIKE INTO A SLOWDOWN? I THINK THAT'S THE BIG QUESTION. MY OVERARCHING BIAS IS THE MARKETS GOING THROUGH A SEASONAL SOFT PATCH HERE. I THINK IT'S OK. I'M NOT SURE ONE HIKE OR ONE HOLD WILL BE THE FINAL VERDICT ON THIS ENTIRE STORY.

I THINK AT THE END OF THE DAY, WHAT WE HAVE TO BE SO CAREFUL WITH IS CREDIT. CREDIT HAS BEEN AN ASSET TO THIS MARKET NOW FOR REALLY TWO OR THREE YEARS. GO TO SIV BE IN MARCH OF 2023. THAT'S WHEN MARKET CONDITIONS BECAME SUPPORTIVE GOING FORWARD. THEY HAVE STAYED THAT WAY, BASICALLY FOR THREE YEARS NOW. I DON'T WANT TO START TO LOSE THAT HERE. YOU START TO LOSE CREDIT AND YOU BEGIN TO LOOK LIKE FALL OF 2018, WH

原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。