美联储理事沃勒表态：若通胀缓解愿维持利率不变
Global Bond Yields Rise, Waller Speaks Out | Real Yield 9/3/2026
美联储关键投票委员明确表态政策倾向，直接指引短端利率预期与曲线形态变化，交易者可据此调整久期与对冲策略，建议密切关注下周CPI数据验证。
FROM NEW YORK CITY, I A MICHAEL MCKEE. BLOOMBERG REAL YIELD STARTS RIGHT NOW. ♪ MICHAEL: CHRIS WALLER GRABS THE MARKETS ATTENTION, SAYING HE WOULD BE WILLING TO SUPPORT HOLDING RATES IF PRICE PRESSURES CONTINUED TO SHOW SIGNS OF EASING. THIS COMES AS INVESTORS BRACE FOR AUGUST PAYROLLS AND THE NEXT BIG TEST, CPI, OUT NEXT WEEK. REDEMPTIONS RENEWED. BLACKSTONE AND CLIFF WATER ONCE AGAIN SET LIMITS CAPPING REDEMPTIONS AT 5%.
来自纽约，我是迈克尔·麦基。彭博实际收益率节目现在开始。♪ 迈克尔：克里斯·沃勒吸引了市场的注意，他表示如果价格压力继续显示出缓解迹象，他将愿意支持维持利率不变。此时投资者正在为8月就业数据和下周即将公布的下一次重大考验——消费者价格指数（CPI）做准备。赎回潮再起。黑石集团和克利夫沃特再次设定限制，将赎回上限设为5%。
WE BEGIN WITH THE BIG ISSUE, THE GLOBAL BOND ROUT MAKES A COMEBACK.
我们从大问题开始，全球债券抛售卷土重来。
IT IS A SIMULTANEOUS SYNCHRONIZED RISE IN GLOBAL YIELDS.
这是全球收益率同步上升。
WE ARE PRICE FOR A PROPER HIKING CYCLE.
我们正在定价一个正常的加息周期。
THE TERM PREMIUM IS NOT ONLY ABOUT SUSTAINABILITY OF FISCAL POLICY, IT IS ALSO ABOUT THE CREDIBILITY OF MONETARY POLICY.
期限溢价不仅关乎财政政策的可持续性，也关乎货币政策的可信度。
REAL YIELDS ARE ACTUALLY QUITE HIGH AND PRETTY ATTRACTIVE.
实际收益率实际上相当高，颇具吸引力。
WE HAVE NOT SEEN PEOPLE BACK AWAY FROM TREASURIES YET.
我们尚未看到人们撤出美国国债。
NO ONE WANTS TO TALK ABOUT BONDS.
没人想谈论债券。
I'M NOT CONVINCED THERE'S A NEED FOR TIGHTENING MONETARY POLICY.
我不相信有收紧货币政策的必要。
INFLATED EXPECTATIONS ARE REASONABLY ANCHORED.
通胀预期是合理锚定的。
THERE COULD BE A SAVING GRACE.
可能会有救星。
IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, I THINK THE LABOR MARKET WILL BE IMPORTANT.
在接下来的几个月里，我认为劳动力市场将很重要。
WE COULD SEE THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS RISING AGAIN.
我们可能会看到失业率再次上升。
IF THE LABOR MARKET IS STRONGER, THAT WILL BE MORE CONFIDENT IN THE FED RAISING RATES.
如果劳动力市场更强强劲，那将更有信心让美联储加息。
IF THEY DECIDE TO HOLD, THERE COULD BE SOME UPSIDE FOR THE MARKET.
如果他们决定维持不变，市场可能会有上行空间。
IT IS REALLY JUST A KILL SWITCH. MICHAEL: THE GLOBAL BOND ROUT DOES NOT EXACTLY DESCRIBE TODAY BECAUSE CHRIS WALLER CAME OUT WITH SOME REMARKS THIS MORNING AND HE IS SEEN AS A COUNTERWEIGHT TO KEVIN WARSH. WALLER SUGGESTING HE COULD SEE BOTH SIDES OF THE ARGUMENT BUT HE HAS SEEN A LITTLE BIT OF DISINFLATION WHICH MADE THE MARKET HAPPY. HE SAID IF THERE IS CONTINUED PROGRESS TOWARDS THE 2% GOAL, TALK ABOUT CPI NEXT WEEK, I'M WILLING TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT LEVEL.
这真的只是一个开关。迈克尔：全球债券抛售并不完全描述今天的情况，因为克里斯·沃勒今天早上发表了一些言论，他被视为凯文·沃尔什的制衡力量。沃勒表示他可以看到争论的两面，但他看到了一些去通胀的迹象，这让市场感到高兴。他说如果朝着2%的目标持续取得进展，谈谈下周的CPI，我愿意支持当前水平。
BUT IF INFLATION COMES IN HOT, I WOULD CONSIDER A RATE HIKE. THAT MADE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE MARKETS TODAY. WE SAW A STEEPENING WITH THE TWO YEAR YIELD FALLING FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SAME THING IN FIVES. WHAT WE DIDN'T SEE AT THE LONG END, THE 10-YEAR NOTE AND 30 YEAR BASICALLY UNCHANGED ON THE DAY. .04 OF A MOVE FOR THE 10-YEAR NOTE AND ABOUT THE SAME FOR THE 30 YEAR NOTE AS PEOPLE WORRY ABOUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN DIFFERENT AREAS BESIDES THE FED.
但如果通胀表现强劲，我会考虑加息。这对今天的市场产生了巨大影响。我们看到收益率曲线陡峭化，两年期收益率大幅下降。五年期也是如此。我们在长期端没有看到这种情况，10年期国债和30年期国债当天基本持平。10年期国债变动了0.04，30年期国债变动幅度大致相同，因为人们担心美联储之外不同领域会发生什么。
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT DEBT, TREASURY SALES AND THINGS LIKE THAT. THAT IS SOMETHING WE HAVE TO BE WATCHING. IT IS A LOT FOR INVESTORS TO TAKE IN. WE ASKED MICHELLE MEYER OF MASTERCARD ECONOMICS OF WHAT THIS MEANS.
我们在谈论债务、国债销售之类的事情。这是我们必须关注的事情。这对投资者来说信息量很大。我们询问了万事达卡经济学的米歇尔·迈耶这意味着什么。
WHAT DO YOU SEE IN THE FUTURE FOR CPI NEXT WEEK?
你对下周的CPI有什么看法？
IF ONLY I KNEW. THERE IS SO MUCH PRESSURE ON THAT ONE REPORT. IT IS VERY MUCH NOT WHAT I THINK THE FED WOULD LIKE TO BE IN THE POSITION THEY ARE IN RIGHT NOW BECAUSE THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT THE -- NOT ONLY WHAT INFLATION IS TODAY BUT THE EXPECTATION FOR INFLATION TOMORROW BASED ON A VARIETY OF FACTORS, A VARIETY OF DATA SETS. IT IS A REALLY CHALLENGING PLACE. I THINK IT IS NOT ONLY A QUESTION OF HEADLINE INFLATION, WITH THE DETAILS WITHIN THE CORE.
要是我知道就好了。那份报告的压力太大了。这完全不是美联储希望处于的立场，因为他们不仅在谈论今天的通胀，还在基于各种因素和数据集讨论对明天通胀的预期。这是一个非常棘手的局面。我认为这不仅关乎总体通胀率，还涉及核心通胀的细节。
MICHAEL: IF ONLY I KNEW. BUT SOMEBODY DOES KNOW, AT LEAST WE THINK SO. IRA JERSEY OF BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE JOINS US. DOES THIS SUGGEST THE FED IS LEANING TOWARDS A HOLD AT THIS MOMENT? IRA: I THINK IT DOES. WE WERE TALKING BEFORE, WALLER IS ONE OF THE MEMBERS OF THE FOMC, VOTING MEMBERS, WHO WAS SEEN MORE AS A SWING VOTER. IF HE WOULD SAY HE'S IN FAVOR OF A HIKE, THAT HE MIGHT BRING ALONG ANOTHER MEMBER WITH HIM. YOU HAVE THE SEVEN VOTES NECESSARY FOR INCREASING INTEREST RATES.
迈克尔：要是我知道就好了。但有人知道，至少我们这么认为。彭博情报（Bloomberg Intelligence）的伊拉·泽西（Ira Jersey）加入我们的节目。这是否表明美联储目前倾向于按兵不动？伊拉：我认为确实如此。我们之前谈过，沃勒（Waller）是联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的成员、有投票权的委员之一，他被视为关键的摇摆票。如果他表示支持加息，可能会带动另一位委员跟随。这样就能凑齐增加利率所需的七张选票。
I THINK THE MARKET TODAY DEFINITELY TOOK CHRIS WALLER'S COMMENTS AS SOMEWHAT DOVISH BUT THE TREASURY MARKET WAS RALLYING EVEN BEFORE HE STARTED TO SPEAK, IN PART, BECAUSE OF WHAT'S GOING ON GLOBALLY. WE CANNOT IGNORE AND SAY THE TREASURY MARKET IS DOING THIS OR THAT ON ITS OWN, BECAUSE YOU LOOK AT THE U.K. YIELDS TODAY. LONG U.K. YIELDS ARE IN ABOUT 8, 9 BASIS POINTS. YOU END UP HAVING THIS GLOBAL STORY YOU HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND IS GOING ON JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.
我认为今天市场肯定将克里斯·沃勒（Chris Waller）的言论视为偏鸽派，但在他开始发言之前，国债市场就已经开始反弹，部分原因是全球局势的影响。我们不能忽视这一点，说国债市场仅凭自身力量在涨或跌，因为你看看今天的英国收益率。英国长期收益率大约在8到9个基点。最终你会发现，这种全球性的故事几乎无处不在，你必须将其纳入考量。
MICHAEL: I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT GLOBAL YIELDS ESPECIALLY IN JAPAN. IF YOU LOOK AT THE CHART OF WHAT'S BEEN GOING ON WITH JGB'S, THEY BEEN RISING AND A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE POINTING TO WHAT'S GOING ON IN JAPAN AS ONE OF THE BIG REASONS THE REST OF THE WORLD IS SEEING THIS. IRA: THAT IS VERY TRUE. IF YOU LOOK AT ALL THE DEVELOPED BOND MARKETS -- IN AGGREGATE, THE JAPANESE BOND MARKET IS THE SECOND LARGEST BOND MARKET IN THE WORLD.
迈克尔：我想问问你关于全球收益率的问题，特别是日本的。如果你看看日本国债（JGBs）走势的图表，它们一直在上涨，许多人指出日本的情况是全球其他地区出现这种现象的主要原因之一。伊拉：这非常正确。如果你观察所有发达债券市场——总体而言，日本债券市场是世界第二大债券市场。
A LOT OF IT IS OWNED BY THE BANK OF JAPAN. THEY PUT A LOT OF QUANTITATIVE EASING OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS, AND THE FREE FLOW DOES NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE HEADLINE NUMBER MY SUGGEST. AS THEY BEEN ROLLING OFF THEIR BALANCE SHEET, AS THEY'VE BEEN HIKING INTEREST RATES GOING TO DEEPLY NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES THE POSITIVE INTEREST RATES, THAT'S AFFECTED JUST ABOUT EVERY DEVELOPED MARKET RATE. NOW YOU HAVE COMPETITORS TO HIGHER YIELDING NODES LIKE THE U.K.
其中很大一部分由日本银行持有。他们在过去30年里实施了大量的量化宽松政策，自由流通量并不像我建议的那样高。随着他们缩减资产负债表，并将利率从深度负利率上调至正利率，这影响了几乎所有发达市场的利率。现在，你有了像英国这样提供更高收益率的竞争节点。
AND U.S. THAT MEANS EVERYTHING HAS TO MOVE IN TANDEM. THE U.S. IS NOT GOING TO PRICE IN A VACUUM. AI 30 YEAR ISSUANCE OR DOES NOT HAVE TO DO WITH JUST THE U.S. FISCAL SITUATION. THEY ARE ALL PART OF IT AND THIS IS VERY MUCH A FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN THE PRICING OF YIELDS GLOBALLY. MICHAEL: IT IS INTERESTING BECAUSE FOR WEEKS, OR MONTHS YOU SHOULD SAY, WE HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT THE PRESIDENT'S TWEETS, OIL PRICES AND WATCHING THE MARKETS, BOTH EQUITIES AND BONDS REACT TO THAT.
美国也是如此，这意味着一切必须同步推进。美国不会在真空中定价。30年期美债发行并不仅仅与美国财政状况有关。它们都是其中的一部分，这确实是全球收益率定价的根本性变化。迈克尔：这很有趣，因为几周前，或者应该说几个月来，我们一直在观察总统的推文、油价，并密切关注市场，股票和债券都对之做出反应。
NOW IT SEEMS LIKE THERE'S A LOT OF CROSSCURRENTS AND A LOT OF DIFFERENT REASONS WHY BONDS ARE MOVING. HOW DO YOU KNOW WHAT YOU WANT TO LOOK AT IN TERMS OF TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TO DO NEXT? IRA: MARCH AND APRIL, THAT WAS ABOUT OIL AND THE UNCERTAINTY AROUND WHETHER OR NOT FOREIGN INVESTORS WERE GOING TO BUY U.S. TREASURIES WERE DUMPED U.S. TREASURIES BECAUSE OF THE ACTIONS BEING TAKEN IN THE MIDDLE EAST. SINCE THEN, YOU WIND UP -- THE MARKET AFTER IT ADJUSTS TO THAT NEW ENVIRONMENT THEN SAYS WHAT'S NEXT AND THEN STARTS TO LOOK MORE FUNDAMENTALLY AT WHERE GDP IS, WHERE INFLATION IS IN ALL OF THESE OTHER PIECES OF THE PUZZLE THAT MAKE UP THE MARKET'S VIEW ON YIELDS.
现在似乎存在许多交叉力量，以及债券移动的诸多不同原因。当你试图弄清楚下一步该做什么时，如何知道应该关注什么？伊拉：三月和四月，那是关于石油以及围绕外国投资者是否会购买或抛售美国国债的不确定性，原因是中东正在采取的行动。从那以后，市场在适应新环境后，会问接下来是什么，然后开始更根本地审视GDP在哪里，通胀在哪里，以及构成市场对收益率看法的所有其他拼图部分。
A MOVE LIKE TODAY WHERE YOU SEE THE FULL STEEPENING, WHERE TWO YEAR YIELDS ARE DOWN MORE THAN 30 YEAR YIELDS. WE HAVE FLATTENED QUITE A LOT AND THE MARKET -- PEOPLE KEEP TALKING ABOUT THIS MYSTICAL THING CALLED TERM PREMIUM. TERM PREMIUM, I DON'T THINK HAS GONE UP AS ALL -- AT ALL. IF YOU LOOK AT FIVE, 30'S YIELDS, THEY ARE FLAT OR. YOU HAVE THE YIELD CURVE FLATTENING WHICH IMPLIES TERM PREMIUMS HAVE GONE DOWN AND YOU ARE REALLY PRICING FOR HIGHER YIELDS GENERALLY AND HIGHER INTEREST RATES.
像今天这样的走势，你看到收益率曲线全面陡峭化，两年期收益率下降幅度超过30年期收益率。我们已经平坦了很多，而市场——人们一直谈论这种被称为期限溢价的神秘事物。我认为期限溢价并没有上升——完全没有。如果你看5年和30年期的收益率，它们是持平的。你看到收益率曲线平坦化，这意味着期限溢价已经下降，而你实际上是在为整体更高的收益率和更高的利率定价。
ALSO, MORE ISSUANCE AND JUST THE GLOBAL GROWTH SITUATION IS SUCH THAT YIELDS HAVE TO BE WHERE THEY ARE. LOOK AT REAL YIELDS. TIPS YIELDS ALMOST 3% ON 30 YEAR YIELDS. THAT IS SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN SEVERAL DECADES. WE'RE THERE BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED GROWTH RATE OF THE COUNTRY. MICHAEL: THANKS TO IRA JERSEY OF BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE. WE WILL TALK TO YOU NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NUMBERS COME OUT. IT WILL BE A VERY BIG WEEK.
此外，更多的发行以及全球增长形势使得收益率必须处于当前位置。看看实际收益率。30年期TIPS（通胀保值债券）收益率接近3%。这是我们几十年来从未见过的。我们之所以达到这一点，是因为预期的国家增长率。迈克尔：感谢来自彭博情报的伊拉·泽西。下周当数字公布时我们会再和你聊。那将是非常重要的一周。
EARLIER THIS WEEK, DAN MOOREHEAD OF PANTERA CAPITAL CALLED OUT SCOTT BESSENT ON HIS BLUFF TO BRING DOWN YIELDS.
本周早些时候，潘特拉资本的丹·摩尔黑德指出斯科特·贝森特在压低收益率方面虚张声势。
THE ONLY WAY A BLUFF WORKS IS IF NOBODY AT THE POKER TABLE KNOWS YOU ARE BLUFFING. TO SLIDE AN EXTRA 2 BILLION OF CHIPS OUT ONTO THE TABLE WHEN YOU ARE A FORCED SELLER OF 2 TRILLION WITH A "T" EVERY YEAR OF BONDS DOES THAT MAKE ANY SENSE. I THINK IT BACKFIRED BECAUSE EVERYONE COULD SEE THEY ARE OFF BY THREE ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE. MICHAEL: LIKE I SAID, MORE CROSSCURRENTS FOR BOND STRATEGIST TO DEAL WITH. LET'S DIG INTO ALL OF THIS WITH OUR ROUNDTABLE.
诈唬只有在扑克桌旁没人知道你是在诈唬时才有效。作为每年必须抛售2万亿美元债券的“强制卖家”，却还要往桌上多放20亿筹码，这说得通吗？我认为这适得其反，因为所有人都能看出他们差了三个数量级。迈克尔：正如我所说，债券策略师需要应对更多的交叉影响。让我们深入探讨这一切，进入我们的圆桌讨论环节。
DEBORAH CUNNINGHAM, EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT AND CIO GLOBAL LIQUIDITY MARKETS. AND THE FIXED INCOME PORTFOLIO MANAGER FOR J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT. KELSEY, LET ME START WITH YOU AND ASK YOU THE SAME THING THAT I ASKED IRA. WHAT IS IT YOU ARE LOOKING AT? EVERYTHING SEEMS TO BE CHANGING ALL THE TIME RIGHT NOW.
黛博拉·坎宁安，执行副总裁兼全球流动性市场首席投资官，以及摩根资产管理固定收益投资组合经理。凯尔西，我先从你开始，问你和我问艾拉同样的问题。你在关注什么？现在一切似乎都在不断变化。
RIGHT. I DO THINK YOU WANT TO DECOMPOSE IT INTO SOME DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS. WE DID HAVE A REPRICING EARLIER IN THE YEAR WHICH WAS ALL FOCUSED ON THE FED PRICING OUT RATE CUTS AND NOW PRICING IN RATE HIKES. MORE RECENTLY, WE
没错。我确实认为你想将其分解为不同的时间段。今年早些时候我们经历了一次重新定价，当时主要聚焦于美联储将降息预期出清，而现在则在计入加息预期。最近，我们
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力