美伊冲突僵持，特朗普考虑宣布战争结束
US-Iran Conflict Stuck With No End | Radio Balance of Power: Early Edition 9/3/2026
涉及地缘冲突走向与美联储官员表态两大核心宏观变量，直接影响市场流动性预期与风险偏好，建议关注后续政策落地及资产波动。
LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D.C., THIS IS BALANCE OF POWER WITH JOE MATHIEU AND KAILEY LEINZ. JOE: THE PRESIDENT CONSIDERS DECLARING THE WAR OVER EVEN AS THE PENTAGON EXTENDS DEPLOYMENTS. WELCOME TO THE THURSDAY EDITION WITH SOME TOUGH QUESTIONS NOW FACING THE ADMINISTRATION WITH SIX MONTHS INTO THE CONFLICT. WE ARE BACK TOGETHER IN WASHINGTON WITH THE JOURNAL SAYING THE PRESIDENT FAVORS CALLING THIS TO A CLOSE. KAILEY: IT IS ONE OPTION ACCORDING TO THE JOURNALS REPORTING, TO PRESERVE HIS OPTIONALITY, THE PENTAGON IS LOOKING TO EXTEND FORCES CITIZENS AND POLICE WELL INTO 2027.
本节目从华盛顿特区现场直播，这里是《权力平衡》，由乔·马蒂厄和凯莉·莱因茨主持。乔：尽管五角大楼延长了部署，总统仍考虑宣布战争结束。欢迎收看周四版节目，在冲突进行六个月之际，政府正面临一些严峻的问题。我们再次回到华盛顿，《华尔街日报》报道称总统倾向于就此画上句号。凯莉：据该报报道，这是保留其选择权的一种方案，五角大楼正计划将部队、国民警卫队和警察的部署延长至2027年。
THIS POST -- PAINTS THE PICTURE THAT THE PRESIDENT FINDS HIMSELF IN THE HEAD OF THE MIDTERMS. THE POLITICAL DESIRE PERHAPS TO MAKE SURE THIS WAR COMES TO AN END IN SOME FORM BUT THE REALITY THAT IRAN ALSO HAS A SAY IN THAT AND MAY NOT BE WILLING TO HAVE A CLEAN CONCLUSION. JOE: WE WILL TRY TO GET INSIDE THE DECISION-MAKING STARTING AT THE WHITE HOUSE WITH A REPORT FROM KATE SULLIVAN. LIEUTENANT GENERAL KAREN GIBSON IS BACK WITH US TODAY.
这篇报道描绘了总统身处中期选举风口浪尖的处境。政治上的诉求或许是希望以某种形式结束这场战争，但现实是伊朗也对此拥有话语权，且可能不愿接受一个干脆利落的结局。乔：我们将尝试深入决策内幕，首先从白宫开始，凯特·沙利文发回报道。今天与我们同在的还有卡伦·吉森中将。
FASCINATING TO GET HER TAKE ON THINGS ON AN OPERATIONAL LEVEL, WHAT THESE FORCES ARE GOING THROUGH, BEING REPLACED AND REFRESHED IS PRETTY DIRE. KAILEY: JD VANCE WILL GET SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS AS HE'S GETTING READY TO TAKE THE PODIUM IN THE WHITE HOUSE BRIEFING ROOM. KAROLINE LEAVITT HAS OFFICIALLY LEFT THE WHITE HOUSE. THERE IS NO PRESS SECRETARY. THE VICE PRESIDENT IS THE ONE WHO GETS TO DO THE JOB TODAY. I IMAGINE HE WILL BE FIELDING PLENTY OF QUESTIONS.
从操作层面听取她的看法非常引人入胜，这些部队正在经历的情况，被替换和轮换的压力相当严峻。凯莉：随着准备在白宫简报室登台，J.D.万斯将面临一些关于此事的提问。卡罗琳·莱维特已正式离开白宫。目前尚无新闻秘书。副总统将是今天负责这项工作的人。我猜他将应对大量的提问。
JOE: HE IS NOT OUT THERE YET BUT A VERY EAGER GROUP AT THE WHITE HOUSE TODAY. 40 DAYS SINCE THEY'VE HAD A CHANCE TO ASK A QUESTION IN THE BRIEFING ROOM. HE'S BEEN LOOKING TO MAKE A LOT OF NEWS LATELY AS WELL SO WE WILL LIKELY GET SOME HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT HOUR. KAILEY: WE ARE ALSO WATCHING THESE MARKETS. CHRISTOPHER WALLER APPARENTLY DID EVERYONE A FAVOR TODAY. FOR MORE, WE TURN TO CHARLIE PELLETT. CHARLIE: REUNITED AND IT FEELS SO GOOD.
乔：他目前尚未露面，但今天在白宫有一群非常热切的记者。距离他们在简报室有机会提问已过去40天。他最近也一直在制造大量新闻话题，所以我们很可能在未来一小时内看到一些头条新闻。凯莉：我们也在密切关注这些市场。克里斯托弗·沃勒显然今天帮了大家一个大忙。更多详情，我们转向查理·佩莱特。查理：重聚的感觉真好。
ALL ADVANCING RIGHT NOW. WALLER, THE S&P UP 78, JUST ABOUT THE BEST LEVEL OF THE DAY. INVESTORS SIFTING THROUGH THOSE REMARKS. THE S&P WITH A GAIN OF 1% NOW. DOW DOING A LITTLE BETTER PERCENTAGEWISE. UP 1.1%. NASDAQ UP 1.1%. THE NASDAQ INDEX UP BY ALMOST 1.2%. RUSSELL 2000 LAGGING BUT HIGHER BY .4%. THE PHILADELPHIA STOCK EXCHANGE'S SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX IS DOWN BY 1.1%. VIX BELOW 15. 10 YEAR, 4.75%. 30 YEAR, 5.23%. INVESTORS WEIGHING THOSE REMARKS FROM WALLER WHO WAS OFFERING OPTIMISM THAT INFLATION IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF SLOWING.
所有指数目前都在上涨。沃勒发言后，标普500指数上涨78点，达到当日最佳水平。投资者正在仔细研读他的讲话。标普500指数现上涨1%。道琼斯工业平均指数涨幅略好，上涨1.1%。纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.1%。纳斯达克指数上涨近1.2%。罗素2000指数表现落后，但仍上涨0.4%。费城证券交易所半导体指数下跌1.1%。VIX恐慌指数低于15。10年期国债收益率为4.75%。30年期国债收益率为5.23%。投资者正在权衡沃勒的讲话，他表现出乐观态度，认为通胀显示出放缓的迹象。
S&P 500 IA ITS BEST DAY IN A MONTH, UP BY 1%. EARNINGS NEWS. BROADCOM DOWN AFTER EARNINGS, DROPPING 2.8%. SNOWFLAKE MOVING BY 21.4% AFTER EARNINGS. THE COMPANY DID RAISE ITS OUTLOOK FOR ANNUAL SALES. HEWLETT-PACKARD ENTERPRISE LOWER BY 3.9%, REPORTING INCREASING SALES BUT THAT DID NOT BEAT HIGH EXPECTATIONS FROM INVESTORS. STOCKS PUSH HIGHER. S&P UP NOW BY 1%. FOR MORE ON DEMAND NEWS, SUBSCRIBED TO BLOOMBERG NEWS NOW WHEREVER YOU GET YOUR PODCASTS.
标普500指数迎来一个月来最佳交易日，上涨1%。财报消息：博通财报后下跌2.8%；Snowflake财报后波动达21.4%，该公司上调了年度销售预期；惠普企业下跌3.9%，尽管报告销售额增长，但未达到投资者的高期望。股市走高，标普500指数现涨1%。欲了解更多即时新闻，请在您收听播客的平台订阅Bloomberg News Now。
THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. KAILEY: CHARLIE PELLETT CHECKING ON TRADING ON THIS SEPTEMBER 3. THAT PUTS US JUST ABOUT TWO MONTHS BEFORE THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS LOOMING IN NOVEMBER. AS NOVEMBER APPROACHES, OIL PRICES ARE NOT NECESSARILY GOING THE DIRECTION THE PRESIDENT AND REPUBLICANS WOULD LIKE TO SEE TO HELP BOOST THEIR ODDS POLITICALLY. STILL NORTH OF $91 A BARREL ON WTI. THE REIGNITED HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST THAT AT THE VERY LEASE DID NOT IGNITE FURTHER.
这是彭博商业快讯。凯利：查理·佩莱特正在关注9月3日的交易情况。这距离11月即将到来的中期选举还有大约两个月。随着11月的临近，油价并未朝着总统和共和党人希望的方向发展，以帮助他们提高政治胜算。WTI原油价格仍高于每桶91美元。中东敌对行动的重新升级至少没有引发进一步的冲突。
THE PRESIDENT DID SUGGEST YOU MIGHT BE WILLING TO STRIKE IRAN AGAIN. THIS CURRENT BOUT HE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-TERM, AS HE TOLD REPORTERS IN THE PURSUIT OF IRAN NOT HAVING A NUCLEAR WEAPON. MIDTERM ELECTION TIMELINE BE DAMNED.
总统确实暗示你可能愿意再次打击伊朗。他预计这次冲突将是短期的，正如他对记者所说，目标是确保伊朗不拥有核武器。至于中期选举的时间表，去他的吧。
IT IS VERY SIMPLE, IRAN CANNOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. AS SOON A DOES IT IS OVER -- I DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH MORE THEY CAN TAKE. I AM NOT AFFECTED BY THE ELECTION. NUMBER ONE, I AM NOT RUNNING. MY PARTY IS RUNNING, I WILL HELP MY PARTY BUT I THINK MY PARTY RESPECTS THE FACT WE ARE NOT ALLOWING IRAN TO HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. JOE: KATE SULLIVAN REPORTS FOR BLOOMBERG AT THE WHITE HOUSE EVERY DAY AND JOINS US AS WE ANTICIPATE THE VICE PRESIDENT AT THE PODIUM.
这很简单，伊朗不能拥有核武器。一旦它拥有，一切就结束了——我不知道他们还能承受多少。我不受选举影响。第一，我没有参选。我的政党在参选，我会帮助我的政党，但我认为我的政党尊重这样一个事实：我们不允许伊朗拥有核武器。乔：凯特·沙利文每天在白宫为彭博社报道，当我们期待副总统走上讲台时，她加入了我们的节目。
THE REPORTING TODAY IS INTERESTING AND EMBLEMATIC OF A LOT OF THE RHETORIC WE HEARD. ON THE ONE HAND, PETE HEGSETH IS EXTENDING DEPLOYMENTS INTO NEXT YEAR, WHILE THE PRESIDENT TELLS ADVISORS HE PREFERS DECLARING THE IRAN WAR OVER. COULD THAT BE NEXT? KATE: YEAH, THE WHITE HOUSE HAS BEEN LOOKING FOR AN OFFRAMP TO THIS WAR FOR QUITE SOME TIME. THIS WAR HAS BEEN VERY UNPOPULAR WITH THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. IT IS SEEMING TO BE HURTING REPUBLICANS' CHANCES IN THE UPCOMING MIDTERM ELECTIONS.
今天的报道很有趣，也体现了我们听到的许多修辞。一方面，皮特·海格塞斯将部署延长至明年，而总统却告诉顾问他希望宣布对伊战争结束。接下来会是这样吗？凯特：是的，白宫一直在寻找这场战争的退出机制。这场战争在美国民众中非常不得人心，似乎正在损害共和党人在即将到来的中期选举中的机会。
TRUMP CONTINUES TO PROJECT OPTIMISM REGARDLESS OF THE REALITY. HE IS PROJECTING A LOT OF OPTIMISM AND CONFIDENCE WHEN IT COMES TO HELP IRAN IS DOING, HOW THE U.S. IS TEARING. WE HEARD HIM SAY YESTERDAY TALKING ABOUT RENAMING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ TO THE TRUMP STRAIT. ALL OF THIS IS HAPPENING -- IT IS VERY NOTABLE THE STRIKES EXCHANGED EARLIER THIS WEEK, IT WAS THE BIGGEST ESCALATION WE SAW IN ABOUT A MONTH. TALKS HAVE COMPLETELY FALLEN APART.
特朗普不顾现实，继续展现乐观态度。在谈及如何帮助伊朗、美国局势如何恶化等问题时，他表现出极大的乐观与自信。我们昨天听到他说要把霍尔木兹海峡更名为“特朗普海峡”。所有这一切正在发生——本周早些时候双方进行的相互打击非常引人注目，那是我们在大约一个月内看到的最严重的升级。谈判已经完全破裂。
NEGOTIATIONS ARE NOT ONGOING NOW. THE PRESIDENT IS SAYING EVEN IF THEY WEREN'T, EVEN IF THERE WAS AN AGREEMENT, IT WOULD ESSENTIALLY BE MEANINGLESS. WE ARE HEARING MIXED MESSAGING WHEN IT COMES TO HOW THIS WAR WILL WRAP UP, IF IT IS GOING TO AND WHEN EXACTLY. KAILEY: I WOULD IMAGINE THOSE QUESTIONS, WHEN THIS WILL WRAP UP, HAVE A LITTLE AND OR THE KINDS OF QUESTIONS THAT THE VICE PRESIDENT MAY BE FACING WHEN HE TAKES THE PODIUM ANY MINUTE NOW.
目前并没有正在进行中的谈判。总统表示，即使没有谈判，即使达成了协议，那也基本上毫无意义。关于这场战争将如何收场、是否会收场以及确切何时收场，我们听到的信息自相矛盾。凯利：我想这些问题，比如这将在何时收场，是副总统现在走上讲台时可能会面临的一些问题。
THAT BRIEFING WAS SCHEDULED FOR THE TOP OF THE HOUR. HE HAS NOT BEEN THE MOST VOCAL ADVOCATE FOR THIS WAR IN THIS ADMINISTRATION. HOW CAN WE EXPECT HIM TO POSITION HIMSELF WITH HIS ANSWERS? KATE: IT IS A VERY INTERESTING POSITION BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF REPORTING THAT VANCE WAS REALLY AGAIN STARTING THIS WAR IN IRAN. HE WAS MUCH MORE CAUTIOUS AND VOICING THOSE OPINIONS IN THE SITUATION ROOM BEFORE THE WAR STARTED.
这次简报会原定于整点开始。他在本届政府中并不是这场战争最积极的倡导者。我们该如何期待他以自己的答案来定位自己？凯特：这是一个非常有趣的立场，因为有很多报道指出万斯实际上是重新开启了这场针对伊朗的战争。在战争爆发前，他在战情室中表现得更为谨慎，并表达了那些观点。
WE ARE GOING TO HEAR FROM THE VICE PRESIDENT ANY MOMENT NOW IN THE WHITE HOUSE PRESS BRIEFING ROOM. THIS IS AFTER KAROLINE LEAVITT HAD HER LAST DAY AS WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY LAST WEEK SO THERE'S NOT CURRENTLY A WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY. THERE HAS BEEN NOBODY NAMED IN THE POSITION. WHAT WE SAW ON KAROLINE LEAVITT'S MATERNITY LEAVE WAS VANCE TAKING THE PODIUM, WE HEARD FROM MARCO RUBIO AND SCOTT BESSENT. THERE WAS THIS ROTATING CAST OF CHARACTERS BRIEFING REPORTERS BUT IRAN WILL BE TOP OF MIND AND TOP OF MY FOR A LOT OF REPORTERS IN THE BRIEFING ROOM.
我们随时将在白宫新闻简报室听取副总统的发言。这是在卡罗琳·莱维特上周作为白宫新闻秘书的最后一天之后，因此目前白宫没有新闻秘书，也没有人被提名担任该职位。在卡罗琳·莱维特休产假期间，我们看到的是万斯走上讲台，我们也听到了马尔科·鲁比奥和斯科特·贝森特的发言。有一批轮换的人物向记者进行简报，但在简报室里，伊朗将是许多记者心中和关注的首要议题。
VANCE WILL BE FIELDING A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT IRAN AND WHAT THE WAR LOOKS LIKE AT THE MOMENT. JOE: IT LOOKS LIKE YOU WILL BE SPENDING MORE TIME TRAVELING WITH THE PRESIDENT. MAYBE NOT THIS MONTH BUT NEXT MONTH. WE ARE GOING TO TAKE THE FINAL 30 DAYS, HE SAID YESTERDAY. YOU DON'T WANT TO GO TO MUCH MORE BEFORE THAT BECAUSE PEOPLE FORGET. TELLING THOSE WHO GATHERED IN THE ROSE GARDEN THAT HE PLANS TO CAMPAIGN FOR ABOUT 35 DIFFERENT LAWMAKERS.
万斯将回答大量关于伊朗以及当前战争态势的问题。乔：看起来你将会花更多时间与总统一起旅行。可能不是这个月，而是下个月。他说，我们将利用最后的30天。在那之前不要花费太多时间，因为人们会忘记。他在玫瑰园对聚集的人群表示，他计划为大约35位不同的国会议员进行竞选活动。
SOME OF THE MOST AT RISK INCLUDING DAN SULLIVAN AND KEN PAXTON. IS THIS SOMETHING THAT WILL FINALLY TURN THE NEEDLE FOR REPUBLICANS? KATE: IT WILL BE BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE TRUMP'S INFLUENCE IN THESE RACES. HE'S NOT ON THE BALLOT BUT HE SAYS HE WILL MAKE A CONCERTED EFFORT TO CAMPAIGN FOR VULNERABLE REPUBLICANS, REPUBLICANS AND COMPETITIVE RACES. HE SAYS HE WILL TRAVEL TO EVERY ONE OF THE 35 RACES THEY HAVE IDENTIFIED AS ONES THAT NEED TO GET THE PRESIDENT INVOLVED IN.
其中风险最高的包括丹·沙利文和肯·帕克斯顿。这是否会最终扭转共和党的局面？凯特：特朗普在这些选战中的影响力将非常值得关注。他本人并未出现在选票上，但他表示将全力以赴为处于弱势的共和党候选人以及竞争激烈的选区进行竞选活动。他说他将前往所有35个他们已确定需要总统介入的选区。
THEY NEED TO HAVE SOME EXTRA ATTENTION. HE MENTIONED SPECIFICALLY ALASKA AND CAMPAIGNING FOR DAN SULLIVAN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE 30 DAYS LEADING UP TO NOVEMBER MIDTERM ELECTIONS WILL BE HECTIC FOR ALL THE CANDIDATES AND AT THE WHITE HOUSE WITH THE PRESIDENT ON THE ROAD A LOT OR SO HE SAYS. KAILEY: ALL RIGHT, WE WILL SEE IF THAT ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES. KATE SULLIVAN LIVE ON THE NORTH LAWN OF THE WHITE HOUSE FOR US. FROM THE DOMESTIC TRAVEL SCHEDULE TO THE ONGOING CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST, THAT ACCORDING TO THE WALL STREET JOURNAL THE PRESIDENT MAY DECLARE IS OVER.
这些选区需要额外的关注。他特别提到了阿拉斯加以及为丹·沙利文助选的情况。看起来在11月中期选举前的30天内，所有候选人以及白宫都将忙得不可开交，因为总统将频繁外出访问，至少他是这么说的。凯利：好吧，我们拭目以待看这是否真的会实现。凯特·沙利文为我们从白宫北草坪发回报道。从国内行程到中东持续不断的冲突，据《华尔街日报》报道，总统可能会宣布后者已经结束。
LET'S TURN TO LIEUTENANT GENERAL KAR
让我们转向准将军卡
原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力