特朗普称伊朗打击将短暂，强调霍尔木兹海峡控制权

To a degree, yes. But keep in mind that the Israelis have been fighting a war since October 2023. The war on Iran, jointly with the United States was really a culmination of that multi front war, a war that on most fronts, potentially all fronts, is yet to be resolved. I think the Israelis are in it for the longest slog. They see this as a consensual something not felt by Americans, not from the outset. Uh, and certainly that's been the case and shown by polls.

And I imagine that will be reflected in November in the midterms. And quite potentially, that is what our colleague Courtney McBride was leading off in the story you reference there when she began it on Capitol Hill, where even some Republican voices are wondering where this president, President Trump, is leading the country in the war. Perhaps this is a natural point of reflection. We've now passed the six months point.

We're now in the seventh month of this war. At the outset, if you ask planners and I did US planners on both sides, both in Jerusalem and in Washington they spoke about major combat being over. They hoped within 4 to 6 weeks. It was obviously that they it was obviously also hoped that major combat would culminate in some kind of internal insurrection in Iran that would bring down the regime. That did not happen. They've now shifted gears, the US handling Iran exclusively, while Israel busies itself with the second front of this war in Lebanon against Iran, backed Hezbollah.

And to judge from recent statements coming out of the US administration. First of all, President Trump is saying he's indifferent to the results of those midterms just a few weeks away. He's also indifferent, he says, to diplomatic prospects, it would appear, if we take him at his word that he, his administration, the military, he commands, are hoping to install a grind, a slow blockade, inexorable on the Iranian economy, coupled with the occasional painful military strike, which the US has said comes to ensure free passage in the whole news or to deny it.

Run free passage in the Strait of Hormuz. There's a hope. Given the really spiraling economic crisis in Iran, that that will do the job internally, there will be a collapse, maybe an insurrection. Who knows? I think we will see a, uh, in the midterms, the results of this in terms of public, uh, responses, the votes, the way they're cast up against the Republican Party. It's worth remembering that an incumbent president, only twice in the last 50 years or so, has actually gained his party, has gained, uh, votes in the midterms.

Generally, the incumbent's party loses. That in itself wouldn't be a big deal if it's a major shellacking. However, that will be a message from the electorate to the president. But it could be the President Trump being President Trump and being a lame duck might decide that he wants to conclude this once he's passed that votes and may even redouble the pressure, perhaps with Israeli assistance, in the hope of getting the job done one way or another.

So when it comes to getting the job done, there's been a lot of debate and maybe confusion among the American voting public as to what the point of this war was. Um, was it to, um, prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon? Was it something else? I mean, at this point, it seems mainly focused on opening up the Strait of Hormuz. What is the latest on Iran's nuclear ambitions, and has there been any progress made on on even having an honest dialogue there?

Indeed. And I think the Strait of Hormuz, I've heard it said that the war has now become the war for the Hormuz. Now, Trump would deny this. He would say that he wants the Hormuz reopened, but the war won't be over until Iran gives up what remains of its nuclear program enriched uranium and the like. That has been one of the war aims. From the outset, the allies were fairly, um, uh, in sync in terms of what they outlined in the first night of the war on February 28th, which was a in terms of objectives being a serious degrading of Iran's military capabilities, nuclear capabilities.

And the Americans added also its naval capabilities when it came to the Gulf. Of course, there's been extra emphasis given to various objectives as this war has dragged on. The messaging has changed. I recommend a report by Bloomberg today. Um, uh, the interview of, uh, us sailors who have now disembarked in Thailand after a record long service in this war aboard a aircraft carrier, saying that to a degree, they felt that the messaging, the murky messaging was hurting morale in the armed forces.

I think what's the given here is that, um, the nuclear program remains the focus of this president, certainly of this Israeli prime minister, given that we're talking about the crown jewels of this Iranian regime that's been in power for almost half a century. I think it follows that they would not give that up without the regime itself coming down. So the two are hand in hand. It is essential for the Iranian regime and we can expect them to fight.

They're in survival mode now. We can expect them to fight with their back to the wall as long as they can.