日元急升逼近156.5 BOJ加息预期升温中东局势升级
US Retail Gasoline Hits Four-Year High; Yen Gains | Bloomberg Brief 09/03/2026
BOJ加息预期与中东军事冲突双重共振，直接冲击汇率、大宗商品及全球风险偏好，需密切关注避险情绪与流动性变化。
VONNIE: 5:00 IN NEW YORK CITY, 10:00 IN LONDON. LET'S GET YOU SET UP FOR THE DAY. THE YEN STRENGTHENING SUBSTANTIALLY. THE BOJ SET TO BE LEANING TOWARDS A 25 BASIS POINT RATE HIKE. RETAIL DIESEL PRICES REACH A HIGH AS PROLONGED WAR STRAINED SUPPLIES. BROADCOM SHARES LOWER DESPITE SEEING A SURGEON AI CHIP SALES OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS. LET'S GET A CHECK ON THE MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD WITH THE LATEST FROM ASIA WITH WINNIE HSU.
VONNIE：纽约时间5:00，伦敦时间10:00。让我们为您开启一天的行情。日元大幅走强。日本央行（BOJ）预计将倾向于加息25个基点。零售柴油价格创下新高，长期战争导致供应紧张。尽管预计未来两年AI芯片销售将激增，但博通（Broadcom）股价下跌。让我们通过来自亚洲的最新消息来了解全球市场动态，欢迎Winnie Hsu。
WINNIE: A DRAMATIC MOVE IN THE JAPANESE YEN. WE ARE SEEING THE YEN EXTENDING GAINS TO ABOUT 1.4% TODAY. TRADING AROUND THE 156.5 LEVEL. WE SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A WEAKENING IN THE PAST HOUR BUT WE'VE HEARD FROM THE BANK OF JAPAN LEANING TOWARDS A QUARTER BASIS POINT HIKE. THE STRENGTHENING PATH FOR THE BANK OF JAPAN AND THE YEN IS QUITE OBVIOUS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY AFTER WHAT WE SAW OVERNIGHT IN THE U.S. TRADING SESSION.
WINNIE：日元出现剧烈波动。我们看到日元今日延续涨势，涨幅约1.4%，交易价位在156.5附近。过去一小时我们观察到轻微走弱，但我们获悉日本央行倾向于加息25个基点。在过去几个小时里，日本央行和日元的走强路径非常明显，尤其是在美国交易时段夜间发生的情况之后。
WE DO NOT EXACTLY KNOW WHAT TRIGGERED THE SPIKE WHETHER IT WAS AN INTERVENTION OR POTENTIALLY A RATE CHECK. WHAT WE KNOW IS INVESTORS ARE BETTING FOR A BIGGER RATE HIKE TO COME AND ARE VERY HIGH WATCHING FOR A RISK OF FURTHER INVENTION. WE ALSO LOOK AT THE BROADER ASIA MARKETS. MSCI ASIA UP ABOUT 7/10 OF A PERCENT SUPPORTED BY A WEAKER U.S. DOLLAR AND WE ARE SEEING FINANCIAL STOCKS LEADING GAINS AS INVESTORS CONTINUE TO THAT CENTRAL BANKS TO CONTINUE TO RAISE RATES.
我们尚不清楚引发飙升的确切原因，是干预还是潜在的利率检查。我们所知的是，投资者正在押注更大的加息，并高度关注进一步干预的风险。我们还观察更广泛的亚洲市场。MSCI亚洲指数上涨约0.7%，受美元走软支撑，我们看到金融股领涨，因为投资者继续期待央行继续加息。
WE HAD THE JGB BOND AUCTION WITH PRETTY SOLID DEMAND TODAY AND THAT IS DRIVING THE YIELDS FURTHER DOWN. VONNIE: LET'S GET TO LONDON FOR A LOOK AT THE EUROPEAN SESSION. HERE IS JUSTINA LEE. JUSTINA: BROADLY SEEING STABILIZATION ACROSS GLOBAL MARKETS AFTER TREASURY YIELDS AND BOND PRICES CEASED THEIR GAINS. WE ARE SEEING THE STOCKS EUROPE 600 UP A BIT. MORE NOTABLY ESPECIALLY WITH GILT YIELDS BEING REACTIVE THESE DAYS THE SHORT END U.K.
今天我们进行了日本国债（JGB）债券拍卖，需求相当强劲，这推动收益率进一步下行。VONNIE：让我们转到伦敦，看看欧洲交易时段。这里是Justina Lee。JUSTINA：在全球市场趋于稳定后，我们看到国债收益率和债券价格停止上涨。我们看到欧洲斯托克600指数（STOXX Europe 600）小幅上涨。更值得注意的是，尤其是鉴于英国金边债券（Gilt）收益率近期反应敏感，短期英国债券收益率……
BOND YIELDS ARE DOWN FOR BASIS POINTS ESPECIALLY INTERESTING MOVE FOR EUROPEAN MARKETS AS DEUTSCHE TELEKOM UP QUITE A BIT AFTER ELLIOT HAS BUILT UP A SIZABLE STAKE IN THE COMPANY AND THAT IS OPPOSED TO THE PROPOSED MERGER WHICH IT -- WITH ITS AMERICAN MOBILE ARM -- AMERICAN ARM T-MOBILE U.S.. SOME INTERESTING DATA POINTS ABOUT THE SWISS ECONOMY TODAY WITH THE CPI EXCEEDING ANALYST EXPECTATIONS AND THE GDP BEATING ESTIMATES AND NOW ALL OF THIS IS KIND OF IN LINE WITH WHAT THE SWISS CENTRAL BANK HAS EXPECTED.
……债券收益率下降了基点，这对欧洲市场来说是一个特别有趣的动向，因为德国电信（Deutsche Telekom）股价大幅上涨，此前艾略特管理公司（Elliott Management）在该公司拥有大量头寸，这与该公司提议的与其美国移动部门T-Mobile US合并的计划相悖。今天关于瑞士经济有一些有趣的数据点，消费者价格指数（CPI）超出分析师预期，国内生产总值（GDP）也高于估计值，现在所有这些都在一定程度上符合瑞士央行的预期。
WE CAN SEE A BIG MOVE STRENGTHENING IN THE SWISS FRANC AFTER A. OF DEPRECIATION AS TRADERS START TO THINK ABOUT GETTING A RATE HIKE A LITTLE BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. VONNIE: THANK YOU FOR THAT. HERE IN THE U.S. WE SAW BUYERS A STEP IN AFTER THREE DAYS OF DECLINES. S&P 500 LOOKS LIKE THE ACTION MIGHT CONTINUE TODAY. ALMOST 30 SESSIONS WILL BE SEEN A DRAWDOWN OF ONE PERCENT OR MORE FROM THE S&P 500. BEAR IN MIND IT IS VERY LOW VOLUMES.
我们可以看到瑞士法郎在贬值后出现大幅走强，因为交易员开始考虑加息时间可能比预期更早。冯妮：谢谢。在美国，我们在连续三天下跌后看到买家入场。标普500指数看起来今天的涨势可能会持续。距离标普500指数从高点回撤1%或以上已接近30个交易日。请记住，当前成交量非常低。
STILL TRADING LIKE IT IS THE END OF SUMMER. RUSSELL 2000 LAGGING JUST A LITTLE BIT. BROADCOM MAY WEIGH ON MARKETS TODAY. A RESULTS CAME OUT IT WAS MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN LATER ON IN THE AFTERMARKET SESSION. WE ARE DOWN ABOUT THREE BASIS POINTS FROM WHERE WE WERE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. UNCHANGED IN THE ASIA SESSION THOUGH. STILL ELEVATED THIS TWO YEAR YIELD. THE 30 YEAR YIELD VERY CLOSELY HEWING TO THAT 5 -- WITH THE 10 YEAR YIELD OFF ITS HIGHS AS WELL THAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.
市场走势仍像夏末一样。罗素2000指数略微落后。博通（Broadcom）今天可能对市场构成压力。其财报结果比盘后交易时段公布的结果重要得多。与昨天同一时间相比，我们目前下跌了约三个基点。但在亚洲交易时段保持不变。两年期收益率仍然处于高位。30年期收益率紧密围绕5%——10年期收益率也远离了我们昨天看到的高点。
I WANT TO POINT TO GOLD UP OF 4400 DOLLARS AN OUNCE IN CRUDE OIL A MAJOR DRIVER FOR THIS MARKET ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT SEEING THE CORRELATION OF YIELDS TODAY. WE ARE ABOVE $91 A BARREL NOW AND ABOVE 95 ON BRENT. INTERESTING BECAUSE THE DUTCH NATIONAL BANK YESTERDAY WAS REPORTED TO HAVE TAKEN SOME OF ITS STORES OF GOLD OUT OF THE U.S. FOLLOWING FRANCE DOING NOW LAST YEAR. COMING UP WE WILL SPEAK ABOUT THE BOND ROUT RETREATING SLIGHTLY AS DECADE HIGH YIELDS WITH SEEMA SHAH OF PRINCIPAL ASSET MANAGEMENT.
我想指出黄金上涨至每盎司4400美元，原油是该市场的主要驱动因素，尽管它今天并未显示出与收益率的相关性。我们现在高于91美元/桶，布伦特原油高于95美元。这很有趣，因为据报道荷兰国家银行昨天将部分黄金储备从美国取出，此前法国在去年也采取了类似行动。接下来，我们将与Principal资产管理公司的Seema Shah讨论债券收益率因十年期高收益率而略有回落的情况。
THE YEN STRENGTHENING AGGRESSIVELY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS IT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT START REVERSING THAT MOVE JUST A LITTLE WHILE AGO BUT THAT IT RESUMED ITS STRENGTHENING GAINS SEEING THAT SLIGHT PULL BACK AFTER THE DOJ WAS POINTING TOWARDS RAISING RATES BY JUST A QUARTER-POINT THIS MONTH. TRADERS HAVE BEEN EXPECTING A MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVE FROM THE BOJ IMMEDIATELY. LET'S BRING IN VEN RAM FOR MORE. A LOT GOING ON WITH THE YEN TODAY.
日元在过去24小时内强势升值，看起来它可能刚刚逆转了这一走势，但随后又恢复了升值势头，在司法部暗示本月仅加息25个基点后出现了轻微回调。交易员一直期待日本央行（BOJ）立即采取更激进的举措。让我们请Ven Ram带来更多关于日元今日动态的信息。
WHAT IS THE STRENGTHENING ATTRIBUTABLE TO. DID WE SEE INTERVENTION, WILL WE FIND THAT OUT LATER ON? VEN: I DON'T THINK IT WAS INTERVENTION FROM THE LOOKS OF IT. I THINK THERE'S BEEN A CONFLUENCE OF FACTORS. WHEN IS THE CONFIRMATION YOU MENTIONED OF SOURCES THAT THE BANK OF JAPAN IS WILLING TO RAISE RATES BY A QUARTER BASIS POINT AND QUARTER PERCENTAGE POINT THIS MONTH. MORE THAN THAT THERE OF BEEN OTHERS AS WELL. ONE IS THE CELL OF AUCTION.
这种升值归因于什么？我们看到了干预吗？我们稍后会找到答案吗？Ven：我认为从外观上看并非干预。我认为这是一系列因素共同作用的结果。你提到的确认消息是什么时候出现的，即日本央行愿意在本月加息25个基点和0.25个百分点？除此之外还有其他因素。其中之一是拍卖机制。
THE 30 YEAR HAS BEEN A LITMUS TEST FOR THE MARKETS BECAUSE IT SHOWS APPETITE FOR JAPANESE BONDS OVER THEIR OWN STRETCH OF TIME. THAT SET UP VERY POSITIVE CONDUCIVE BACKDROP FOR YEN AND THEN THERE IS A GPI DOING THE ROUNDS THAT THE -- THEY ARE THINKING OF REALLOCATING MORE TO ITS DOMESTIC BONDS SOONER RATHER THAN LATER BECAUSE THEY MET IN AUGUST AND THAT IS UNUSUAL. THERE'S BEEN A CONFLUENCE OF FACTORS. A LOT OF SHOCK COVERING FROM THE YEN WHICH IS WHAT WAS SEEN THE MOVE BEING AS STRONG AS IT IS.
三十年期国债一直是市场的试金石，因为它显示了投资者对日本债券在其自身期限内的偏好。这为日元营造了一个非常积极有利的背景，与此同时，全球养老金投资委员会（GPI）正在进行一轮讨论，他们考虑将更多资金重新配置到国内债券上，而且时间可能比预期更早，因为他们在八月进行了会议，这很不寻常。多种因素产生了共振。来自日元的广泛避险情绪正是导致其走势如此强劲的原因。
THIS IDEA WE GET A QUARTER-POINT HIKE. WERE TRADERS HOPING FOR 50 BASIS POINT HIKE AND THEN WHAT IF THE BANK OF JAPAN SIGNALS IT MIGHT HIKE AGAIN BEFORE SIX MONTHS ARE UP. WOULD THAT BE ENOUGH? VEN: I THINK IT IS NOT A SURPRISE AT ALL BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK AT THE PATTERN ONLY ONE MEMBER VOTED FOR A 20 FIVE BASIS POINT HIKE. THE REST OF THE REST OF THEM ALL HEDGED RATES. AFTER BEING ORDERED TO HOLD RATES, THEY WILL BE EXPECTED TO ENSURE A COUPLE OF MONTHS A 50 BASIS POINT HIKE, SO THAT WAS NEVER IN THE MARKET EXPECTATIONS.
我们得到的观点是加息25个基点。交易员们是否期望加息50个基点？如果日本银行发出可能在六个月内再次加息的信号，那会足够吗？VEN：我认为这完全不会令人惊讶，因为如果你看投票模式，只有一名成员支持加息25个基点。其余所有成员都采取了观望态度。在接到维持利率不变的指令后，市场预计他们会确保在接下来的几个月内加息50个基点，因此这从未被纳入市场预期之中。
SPEAKING ABOUT THE NEED FOR A MOVE BIGGER THAN 25 BASIS POINTS BUT THAT WASN'T HAPPENING RIGHT FROM THE GET-GO. AS FOR THE BANK OF JAPAN SIGNALING ITS WILLINGNESS TO MOVE QUICKER THAT WOULD BE A SUFFICIENT ENOUGH MOVE, FROM THE BANK OF JAPAN WITH URGENCY AND I WOULD HOIST UP THE YEN. I DOUBT THEY'RE WILLING TO MOVE AT A QUICKER PACE. THEY WON'T EXPLICITLY MENTION THAT ALL THEY WILL DO IS ADMIT THAT THEY ARE WILLING TO GO QUICKER IF THERE IS A NEED SO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CONDITIONS ATTACHED TO IT.
虽然谈到需要一次大于25个基点的加息，但这从一开始就没有发生。至于日本银行发出愿意更快行动的意愿，这将是一个足够的信号，从日本银行那里感受到紧迫感，我会推高日元。我怀疑他们愿意加快步伐。他们不会明确提及这一点，他们只会承认如果有必要，他们愿意加快速度，因此这将附带许多条件。
I DON'T THINK THAT'S WHAT THE MARKET IS GOING TO GET LATER THIS MONTH. VONNIE: THEY WON'T WANT TO BOX THEMSELVES AND PARTICULARLY IF THE YEN STAYS AT THESE LEVELS. CAN I ASK ABOUT THIS STORY. THE DUTCH NATIONAL BANK HAS TAKEN SOME GOLD OUT OF THE U.S. AND SOLD SOME MORE TO BUY BULLION IN LONDON. IS THIS AN ACTUAL DEBASEMENT MOVE THAT'S IMPORTANT OR IS IT JUST SYMBOLIC. THE DUTCH NATIONAL BANK SAYING WE DON'T HAVE AS MUCH TRUST AS WE ONCE DID.
我不认为这是市场本月晚些时候会得到结果。VONNIE：他们不想把自己逼入死角，特别是如果日元保持在这些水平的话。我可以问一下这个故事吗？荷兰国家银行从美国取出了一些黄金，并出售了更多黄金以在伦敦购买金条。这是一个重要的实际贬值举动，还是仅仅具有象征意义？荷兰国家银行表示，我们对……的信任不如从前。
VEN: YOU NAILED IT THERE. IT'S ABOUT THE TRUST IN THE U.S. FINANCIAL SYSTEM AT A TIME WHEN YOU'VE GOT INCREASINGLY THE WHITE HOUSE DICTATING TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND THAT IS NOT REALLY THE KIND OF DIRECTION THAT THEY WANT TO SEE GLOBAL POLICYMAKERS. WE'VE HAD THIS INSTANCE WITH RUSSIA NOT BEING ABLE TO USE THE RESERVES AS THEY NEEDED TO BUT THEY WANTED TO FOR WHATEVER REASONS. IT GOES BACK TO THE FACTOR WHERE THERE'S A LACK OF TRUST IN U.S.
VEN：你一针见血。这关乎对美国金融体系的信任，尤其是在白宫越来越多地制定条款和条件的背景下，而这并不是全球政策制定者希望看到的指导方向。我们有过俄罗斯无法按需要使用储备金的案例，但他们出于各种原因想要使用。这又回到了缺乏对美国信任这一事实。
POLICYMAKING AND THAT'S WHEN IT SHOWS THE MOVE TO LONDON. VONNIE: BLOOMBERG'S VEN RAM FROM OUR LIVE TEAM. ATTACKS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. IRAN CLAIMING A TARGETED U.S. BASES IN THE UAE AND KUWAIT. THIS AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID THE RENEWED STRIKES ON IRAN SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. JOINING US FROM DUBAI. HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THIS DETERIORATION? ABEER: GOOD MORNING VONNIE. QUITE SIGNIFICANT OF COURSE IF YOU FACTOR IN THOSE OF THE FIRST MILITARY STRIKES WE ARE SEEING IN THE REGION AFTER MORE THAN A MONTH OF RELATIVE CALM IN THE WIDER REGION WITH THE U.S.
政策制定，正是在那时显示出向伦敦的转移。冯妮：彭博社现场团队的本·拉姆。中东地区的袭击。伊朗声称针对美国在阿联酋和科威特的基地发动了定点打击。此前特朗普总统表示，对伊朗的新一轮打击应该是短暂的。来自迪拜的阿比尔：早上好，冯妮。当然，这相当重要，如果你考虑到这是在该地区更广泛范围内经历了一个多月的相对平静后，我们看到的该地区首次军事打击。
ATTACKING IRAN. EARLIER IN THE WEEK AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID THEY WERE IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IRAN RETALIATING BY HITTING COUNTRIES IN THE REGION UNTIL THE EARLY HOURS OF THE MORNING HERE IN DUBAI. WE HAVE HEARD ABOUT ATTACKS IN NEIGHBORING KUWAIT. IRAN WAS ATTACKING JORDAN, BALLISTIC MISSILES HAD BEEN INTERCEPTED OVER THE SKIES. BAHRAIN ALSO ATTACKED. QUITE AN ESCALATION ALTHOUGH A LITTLE CONTAINED COMPARED TO W
攻击伊朗。本周早些时候，在特朗普总统表示他们位于霍尔木兹海峡后，伊朗通过袭击该地区的国家进行报复，直到迪拜清晨时分。我们已经听到关于邻近科威特遭受袭击的消息。伊朗还攻击了约旦，弹道导弹在天空中被拦截。巴林也遭到攻击。尽管相比W（注：原文此处截断）而言，局势有所升级但略有控制。
原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
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