美伊冲突推高欧洲天然气成本，Broadcom发布AI芯片指引

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This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast. Good morning, it's Thursday, the 3rd of September. I'm Stephen Carroll in London. Coming up [music] today, a global battle for natural gas supplies threatens to leave Europe facing a massive winter bill. Robo-taxis begin picking up passengers across the higgledy-piggledy streets of London. Plus, power to the people, how some homeowners are using batteries and AI to profit from volatile electricity prices.

Let's start with a round-up of our top stories. Renewed fighting between the United States and Iran is raising the risk of a global battle for gas supplies as Europe struggles to refill storage before winter. Bloomberg calculations show that at current prices, European countries would need to spend more than 7 billion euros to reach even their lowest gas storage targets. President Trump said the latest US bombing campaign will likely be short-lived, but Iran has continued to retaliate with fresh missile and drone attacks across the region today.

That threatens recovering flows through Hormuz as Europe competes with Asia for scarce winter gas. Stephen Stapczynski is our energy editor in Asia.

Europe will be able to get through its winter with inventories. The issue though is that the lower inventories go, and as they get drained, that will only increase the price of natural gas in the future, which means that consumers in Europe will have to pay more, and that just results in in more inflation.

More from Stephen Stapczynski in a moment. Analysts say that that could force European gas prices up by a third to around 100 euros a megawatt hour. That could reignite inflation, raising the prospect of further interest rate hikes, and a painful winter for Europe's economy. Rising global bond yields are tightening the squeeze on Britain's public finances. The sell-off has pushed the yield on 10-year gilt up nine basis points to 5.23%.

Bloomberg Economics estimates that's cut the government's fiscal headroom in half. At his first Prime Minister's Questions, Prime Minister Andy Burnham declined to rule out tax rises or further borrowing.

We are taking the action needed to get debt down. This will be a government grounded in fiscal responsibility. It will stick to the fiscal rules, but at the same time we will help reduce cost of living pressure on our constituents. And that's the approach that we will take, and that's the one I would suggest the party offers it they should follow, too.

Paying for Burnham's cost of living pledge is now falls to the Chancellor John Healey. Bloomberg understands that Healey will set out his plans to drive economic growth in a major speech next Monday. European officials have vowed more support for Ukraine after Germany blamed Russia for a drone attack at Leipzig Airport. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says the escalation marks a new normal for Europeans.

This was an attack using military-grade material carried out by Russian operatives on European Union soil. We will not tolerate it. We stand in full solidarity with Germany. And if the intention was to make us think twice about supporting Ukraine, I can tell you it has only strengthened my resolve.

Von der Leyen said the Commission is looking to cut deeper into Russia's war chest and close the loopholes it exploits. Her comments were echoed by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and senior European diplomats and foreign ministers. Some are pushing for new visa restrictions on Russians, while others want to revisit using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine. The Dutch Central Bank has shifted around 12 billion dollars of gold from the US and Canada to London as it strengthens its crisis preparedness.

London now holds almost a third of Dutch gold reserves up from about 18%. The bank says bullion held there can be traded or mobilized more quickly through the world's most liquid gold market. The shift follows growing scrutiny across Europe over where national gold reserves should be stored. Broadcom is predicting a surge in AI chip sales over the next 2 years. The bullish outlook is renewing optimism it can challenge Nvidia's dominance of the market.

CEO Hock Tan says chip revenue will double to around 115 billion dollars in 2027 and double again the following year. Here is a Bloomberg Intelligence senior semiconductor analyst Kunjan Sabani.

More than that was this is the first time ever where they laid out clearly the top four ex- few customers, Google, Open AI, Meta, and Anthropic, gigawatts that they're going to deploy for each 27 and 28 in detail. This is something the company has not done in the past. Again, speaks to sort of the pressure that the company's facing around visibility of these concentrated programs and the angst that is amongst investors about demand continuing in 2028.

Sabani sounded a note of caution over Broadcom's lukewarm fourth quarter forecast, but he says investors were more impressed by the chipmaker's longer-term outlook. And London's notoriously tricky streets are getting a new kind of cab from this morning. Uber and British AI startup Wayve are launching the capital's first commercial robo-taxi service. Bloomberg's Tiwa Adebayo has more.

Starting today, a fleet of autonomous driving cars will be deployed across the UK's capital, marking AI startup Wayve's first-ever commercial public service. Passengers who order a ride through Uber may be offered a trip in one of the 15 wave-powered robo-taxis for the same price as a regular journey to anywhere in the city except the airports. For now, trained safety drivers with Transport for London licenses will sit behind the wheel and take control if needed as the company works to build trust in the technology and secure additional approvals.

But in the future, Wave CEO Alex Kendall says he expects its partnership with Uber to provide thousands of rides per week. In London, Teagarden by a Bloomberg Radio.

And those are your top stories on the markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up by 8/10 of 1% today. Oil prices slightly lower on the day with Brent crude down 7/10 to $95 a barrel is still holding on to much of the gains to the past few days. The natural gas price is also slightly lower but still close to those levels with the highest since 2023. Euro Stoxx 50 futures this morning a little lower and we've seen a pause also in the global bond sell-off. 10-year Treasury yields down a basis point at 4.78%.

Now, in a moment more on the high price tag Europeans may have to pay for gas this winter. Plus, is it time to start selling electricity back to the grid? We'll hear about the households turned energy traders. But another story that caught our eye this morning, does splurging on joy give you a guilt hangover? That's the question that Jessica Karl is asking in the latest Bloomberg Opinion newsletter inspired inspired by a series of pieces from her team and her own trip to the US Open where the viral food seemed like more of an attraction than the tennis.

The context though was a survey from Ally Bank revealing that 75% of Americans carry some guilt when they splurge on joyful things, whether it's US Open tickets or a Nintendo Switch or a fancy car. At the same time, almost 70% say that they say that they spend the right amount on joy, an amount that our columnist Alison Schrager notes continues to rise when you look at credit card spending data. This is of course a bigger picture thought when we're thinking about people preparing for retirement.

Are we, and not just Americans, spending too much on our joy today, the expensive tomorrow? Now, Allison, who is herself an economist specializing in retirement savings, concludes that the amount of guilt you should feel about any purchase is correlated to your capacity to manage risk if your circumstances change. So, it's not about rewarding yourself or feeling guilty about it afterwards. It's about risk ma