美伊冲突致油价攀升,众议院通过短期拨款法案避免停摆
Trump Says Iran Strikes to Be Short; Commerce Secretary Lutnick on AI, Tariffs and Canda |...
涵盖地缘冲突对大宗商品(油价)的直接冲击、关键资源国(委内瑞拉)的产能变量以及美国财政底线(拨款法案),均为宏观交易核心要素,建议关注油价波动与政策落地节奏。
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on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. We are seeing oil prices climbing once again today. A 90 handle on WTI approaching $96 a barrel on Brent on the escalation of hostilities in and around the straight of Hormuz as US forces strike Iranian targets or were striking them overnight for the second time in 3 days. And of course Iran as it promised did attempt to strike back against US interests in the Middle East and other Gulf states.
That is what has triggered this rise in oil prices. And the question of course is whether this means that we could go back to an active kinetic phase of this war, this conflict, which of course is now past the six-month mark as of last Friday. We want to get into this now as we turn to Bloomberg, Skyler Woodhouse, a Washington uh correspondent for us here at Bloomberg, who is live from the North Lawn right now. Skyler, we have heard from the president today on True Social, not about whether or not the US will continue strikes uh today or whether that should be expected, but instead an assertion that the US is in control of the straight of Hormuz and suggesting that because that is true, the name of the Hormuse Strait should potentially change to the Trump straight.
Is that all we can expect to hear from the president on this today? Does he have any events opening up in which we could potentially uh get some finer details on the plan?
Yeah, Kaylee. Well, the president today is expected to meet with uh travel industry uh leaders and executives. Now, that meeting as of now is closed and here at the White House, we are all waiting to see if that meeting could potentially open up to press um which could give an opportunity for reporters to ask questions uh to the president on what the latest developments in Iran are. um and to potentially ask him if he really thinks that he can change the name of the trader moves um to what he would like to see.
Um so look, we'll see if that meeting opens, but as of now, we're not tracking anything where we might be able to get an update from the president on the Iran developments.
Yeah. I mean, I guess if he can change Lake Ontario to Lake America and have Google Maps and Apple Maps reflect that, at least for those in the United States, I don't know what would necessarily stop him from naming another uh international waterway, but unclear if he was really uh serious about that. Skyler, uh, in terms of the actual like, uh, strategic, uh, messaging being put forward by the administration, before these strikes began again in earnest, uh, just a couple of days ago, it seemed that there was a pivot from kinetic activity to economic warfare.
It's why last week the Treasury Secretary made a big to-do about economic D-Day. Is there actually a strategy shift underway here, or is the administration trying to pursue uh, both both things at the same time? Well, Kayleie, the president last night said he quote couldn't care less if Iran uh signs an agreement. That was what he said on True Social uh yesterday afternoon. So, you know, I think what we're trying to figure out now is what is the president's uh thinking and where does he sort of uh see the war going next?
It does appear that uh you know, maybe the administration is sort of boxed into a corner as they try and figure out their next strategy and what their next move will be, especially as uh the November midterms are quickly approaching. And as you mentioned earlier, those uh gas prices are continuing uh to skyrocket, which is something that they are trying to quell as those uh November midterms quickly near.
Yeah. Which is where Venezuela enters the conversation. Uh Skyler, the energy secretary, Chris Wright, is down there today, as is the CEO of Chevron, which uh is announcing a 7 billion investment uh into their joint ventures there over the next five years. But what are we hearing from the administration as to how quickly uh the access to those 65 billion barrels uh of of oil fields in Venezuela is actually going to translate into lower prices at the pump?
Is there an expectation that any of this is going uh to be in US control realistically and changing things for American consumers in this president's term? Forget before the midterms. Yeah, Kayleie, look, these things take time and what we know about Venezuela obviously is their infrastructure is something that is going to have to be sort of rebuilt and remmanaged. Um, and so what we're seeing right now is that the president is trying to sort of really get things moving very quickly, but only time will tell to see how fast does those do those barrels really get uh get moving.
I mean, especially as the president and the administration is trying to uh reduce the influence of China and Russia and and and Venezuela. Uh, Secretary Wright is in Venezuela right now and so, you know, we'll have to see sort of what comes from the meetings down there and that trip. Um, but only time will tell and look these things take time. Nothing can really happen overnight. And if it does happen overnight, then that is that is really spectacular.
But, you know, these things will take time and uh, who's to say if it'll uh, happen by the time the president um is out of office or not.
All right, Skyler Woodhouse reporting from the north lawn of the White House for us today. Thank you so much. Now, she's right. Not a lot uh is able to happen overnight, at least in the modern uh political climate. A lot of things take uh time to complete, but we have seen some things completed on Capitol Hill in the last uh 24 hours or so, as of course, the House was able to pass a continuing resolution to keep the government funded through December.
It now heads to President Trump's desk. The expectation is he will sign it. A shutdown will be averted, but the lame duck session could be very much uh an open question. And for more, we turn now to the chair of the House Budget Committee. Congressman Jod Arrington, the Republican representing Texas's 19th district, is joining us now live from Capitol Hill on Bloomberg TV and radio. Mr. Chairman, welcome back to Balance of Power.
And congratulations on getting the CR done. What happens on December 10th, though? Could it be another continuing resolution? Should we expect the regular appropriations process will be completed in the lame duck or could everything fall apart and the lights turn off before the holidays?
Well, Carrie, great to be with you. Uh it look, it's sad to say, but for Congress, it's a big feat these days to actually come to some agreement on a continuing resolution uh versus shutting the government down. We saw that last year over extending a COVID era fraudridden expansion of Obamacare. Uh, believe it or not, that was a 43-day shutdown followed by another shutdown of Homeland Security. Uh, that was 76 days.
So, those were the longest shutdowns ever. Uh, hurt our economy in that one quarter. Uh, that would be the the fourth quarter of last year. about a percent and a half of GDP, not to mention the disruptions it causes uh on our country, taxpayer cost, and especially with respect to our defense now that we're in uh conflict. So glad that we could get at least consensus on a continuing resolution. Uh I think there's going to be great urgency and all the right impetus to find a full four fullyear sort of agreement, four-year uh four corner agreement rather from House and Senate, both parties.
Uh we've gone through regular order in the House, Carrie. We we passed all 12 appropriations out of committee. Uh we were working through regular order, had three off the floor. The Senate had zero. Like not one had they passed. We also, by the way, before we broke for uh August recess, uh we p
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