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众议员:美债问题需两党合作解决,目前财政空间耗尽

US Will Not Tackle Debt Until Republicans, Democrats Come Together, Says Rep. Arrington

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Congratulations on getting the CR done. What happens on December 10th? Though, could it be another continuing resolution? Should we expect the regular appropriations process will be completed in the lame duck? Or could everything fall apart in the lights turn off before the holidays? Oh, Carrie, great to be with you. Uh, it. Look, it's sad to say, but for Congress, it's a big feat these days to actually come to some agreement on a continuing resolution, uh, versus shutting the government down.

恭喜你们完成了CR(持续决议案)。12月10日会发生什么?不过,会不会是另一个持续决议案?我们是否期望在跛脚鸭国会期间完成常规的拨款程序?或者一切会不会在假期前灯光熄灭时分崩离析?哦,凯丽,很高兴和你在一起。呃,它。看,说句遗憾的话,但对国会来说,如今能就持续决议案而非政府停摆达成某种协议已是一项巨大的壮举。

We saw that last year over extending a Covid era, fraud ridden expansion of Obamacare. Uh, believe it or not, that was a 43 day shutdown, followed by another shutdown of Homeland Security. Uh, that was 76 days. So those were the longest shutdowns ever. Uh, hurt our economy in that one quarter. Uh, that would be the fourth quarter of last year. Uh, about a percent and a half of GDP. Not to mention the disruptions it causes on our country, taxpayer cost, and especially with respect to our defense now that we're in conflict.

去年我们在延长新冠疫情时期充满欺诈的奥巴马医改扩张时就见过这种情况。信不信由你,那次导致了43天的政府停摆,随后又是国土安全部的另一次停摆。那次长达76天。因此那是历史上最长的停摆。那个季度我们的经济受到了伤害。那是去年第四季度。约占GDP的1.5%。更不用说它给我国带来的破坏、纳税人的成本,尤其是考虑到我们现在处于冲突之中,对国防的影响。

So glad that we could get at least consensus on a continuing resolution. I think there's going to be great urgency and all the right impetus to find a full, full year sort of agreement for year for corner agreement rather from House and Senate, both parties. Uh, we've gone through regular order in the House carry we we passed all 12 appropriations out of committee. Uh, we were working through regular order, had three off the floor.

所以很高兴我们能就持续决议案至少达成共识。我认为会有极大的紧迫感和所有正确的动力,以找到全年协议的共识,即来自众议院和参议院两党的“corner agreement”(此处疑为口误或特定术语,暂译作角落协议/最终协议)而非其他。呃,我们在众议院已经通过了常规程序,我们通过了委员会提出的全部12项拨款法案。呃,我们正在推进常规程序,有三项已在众议院全院表决通过。

The Senate had zero like not one had they passed. We also, by the way, before we broke for, uh, August recess, uh, we put out a budget reconciliation measure, a budget resolution with reconciliation instructions to provide defense, which would be emergency supplemental funding for defense. And then, of course, we had the Save act and, uh, election integrity reform measures. Well, on the supplemental, what are you hearing from your counterparts in the Senate as to the future of that when they return from recess on September 14th?

参议院则一项都没有通过,连一个都没有。另外,顺便说一下,在我们休会进入八月休会期之前,我们提出了一项预算调和措施,即带有调和指令的预算决议,以提供国防资金,这将是国防的紧急补充拨款。然后,当然还有《萨夫法案》(Save Act)以及选举诚信改革措施。那么关于补充拨款,当参议员们于9月14日结束休会期返回后,你从他们的同僚那里听到了关于其未来的什么消息?

Well, unfortunately, I don't know that the will is there. I really I say that with great grief because our our troops need to know we've got their back. Uh, certainly. Practically speaking, they need a replenishment of munitions. They they need to fill up the tanks, so to speak, to finish the fight and come home safely. I don't think there's a more important, uh, endeavor for us as Congress to deal with then to support the common defense and back our troops.

嗯,不幸的是,我不知道是否存在那种意愿。我说这话时深感悲痛,因为我们的士兵需要知道我们支持他们。当然。从实际角度来看,他们需要弹药补给。他们需要把坦克加满油,以便打完这场仗并安全回家。我认为作为国会,没有比处理支持共同防御和 backing our troops(支持我们的部队)更重要的事业了。

Uh, whether you can debate the conflict. You can debate all kinds of the strategies. We can't debate supporting our men and women in uniform. So that is paramount. And that's why we got it out of the house in a timely way. I just, you know, I hate to say this, but I don't have a lot of confidence we're going to get a reconciliation back prior to the election. Now going to lame duck. I think we'll have even a bigger aperture on what we can do through reconciliation.

嗯,你可以辩论这场冲突。你可以辩论各种策略。但我们不能辩论是否支持我们的军装男女。所以这是至关重要的。这就是为什么我们及时把它从家里拿出来。我只是,你知道,我不愿意这么说,但我对在大选前达成和解没有太多信心。现在即将进入跛脚鸭时期。我认为我们将有更广阔的视野来通过调和手段做更多的事情。

Uh, in terms of investment in modernization of the military, not just supplemental resourcing for the current conflicts. Uh, but that's, uh, again, that's after the election. Uh, I just hold very little hope out prior to the election at this point that we'll get a return serve from the Senate. Well, and when we consider this supplemental funding, it was not planned that there would be offsets for this spending. And, Mr.

嗯,就军事现代化投资而言,不仅仅是为当前冲突提供补充资源。嗯,但那是,呃,再次强调,那是在大选之后。嗯,我现在对在大选之前参议院能给予回报抱有很小的希望。而且,当我们考虑这笔补充资金时,原本并没有计划为此支出设置抵消措施。并且,主席先生,我向您提出这个问题,要知道在债券市场上,正如我们现在所见,收益率正攀升至数十年来的最高水平。嗯,就最长期限而言,十年期收益率达到4.80%。目前,债券市场似乎正在对通胀前景进行清算。是的,但也包括对美国所处财政现实的认识。在没有抵消措施的情况下,你能持续花费多久?

Chairman, I ask you this, knowing that in the bond market as we speak, we are seeing yields climbing to the highest level in decades. Uh, in terms of the longest duration, the ten year yields at 480. Right now, there seems to be a reckoning in the bond market about the outlook for inflation. Yes, but also for the reality of the fiscal situation the United States finds itself in. For how much longer can you continually spend without offsets for it?

这是一个很好的问题,有很多话要说。首先,我会说你是对的。我们的财政空间正在耗尽。而这一空间是必需的,因为我们在7万亿美元的预算中借贷了2万亿美元,顺便说一句,在我们借入的2万亿美元中,有一半仅仅是用来支付债务利息以偿还债务。到某个时候,我们将面临压力,甚至难以借贷,这将导致紧缩和潜在的增税,这是一个非常糟糕的情景,会对经济造成伤害。

Well, it's a great question and there's a lot to say about it. First, I would say you're right. We are running out of fiscal space. And and that space is needed because we're borrowing 2 trillion in a $7 trillion budget and climbing, by the way, also of the 2 trillion we borrow, half of that is just paying interest to service the debt. At some point, we're going to have a strain and even a difficult time borrowing, which would create austerity and potential tax increases, really bad scenario and economic harm.

更不用说,它还会,呃,你知道,呃,挤压我们为国防等国家重点优先事项提供资金的能力。现在,这种情况已经持续了很长时间。无论是共和党还是民主党,当他们控制国会时,都没有充分解决这些结构性赤字和我们大型福利项目中的不平衡问题。只有当共和党和民主党携手合作时,这种情况才会改变。我们已经降低了成本,基本上连续三年减少了自由裁量方面的支出。

Not to mention it would, uh, you know, uh, squeeze our ability to fund our national priorities like defense. Now, this has been going on a long time. Both Republicans and Democrats, uh, when they had control of Congress, have not sufficiently dealt with these structural deficits and imbalances in our large entitlements. That will only happen when Republicans and Democrats come together. We have lowered the cost, basically reduce spending on the discretionary side for three years straight.

此外,这还意味着,呃,你知道,呃,会限制我们为国防等国家优先事项提供资金的能力。这种情况已经持续了很长时间。无论是共和党还是民主党,当他们控制国会时,都没有充分解决这些结构性赤字和我们大型福利项目中的不平衡问题。只有当共和党和民主党携手合作时,这种情况才会改变。我们已经降低了成本,基本上连续三年减少了自由裁量方面的支出。

CBO says it's over 2 trillion in a ten year budget window. We reduced mandatory spending, waste, fraud and abuse in entitlements, mandatory spending by 1.5 trillion. That's twice as much as anyone has ever done in the history of our country. But that still we're overwhelmed with the deluge of the demographic problem. 10,000 baby boomers every day getting onto Social Security and Medicare. The retiree to worker ratio is not it's not going in the right direction.

国会预算办公室(CBO)表示,在十年预算窗口期内,这一数字超过2万亿美元。我们减少了强制性支出、福利项目中的浪费、欺诈和滥用行为,以及强制性支出共计1.5万亿美元。这比我们国家历史上任何人所做的都要多出一倍。但即便如此,我们仍被人口结构问题带来的洪流所淹没。每天有一万名婴儿潮一代加入社会保障和医疗保险体系。退休人员与工人的比例正朝着错误的方向发展。

So Republicans and Democrats are going to have to come together, which is why in my next budget hearing, we're talking about a fiscal commission. We're talking about a Simpson-Bowles style commission where we bring both parties together to work out the solutions on all fronts. So we have a game plan in the long term to bend the curve on mandatory spending as we grow the economy? Because that's a big part of restoring the fiscal health of the country.

因此,共和党和民主党必须走到一起,这也是为什么在我的下一次预算听证会上,我们将讨论成立一个财政委员会。我们要建立一个类似辛普森-鲍尔斯(Simpson-Bowles)风格的委员会,将两党聚集在一起,在所有方面共同制定解决方案。那么,我们是否有一个长期计划来扭转强制性支出的增长曲线,同时促进经济增长?因为这是恢复国家财政健康的重要部分。

Have you been in conversation with the Treasury Secretary, Scott Benson, or the OMB director, Russ Vogt, about this? Because Secretary Benson recently has suggested that there is a coming plan around fiscal consolidation, in part to try to assuage the bond markets. Are you involved in that? Do you know what he's talking about? Well, I think I won't get into any details. I'll let them roll that plan out. But I will say they, uh, they have worked hand-in-glove with, uh, Congress in the first reconciliation bill that has set the table for pro-growth, uh, activity.

您是否与财政部长斯科特·本森(Scott Benson)或行政管理和预算办公室主任拉斯·沃格特(Russ Vogt)就此进行过沟通?因为本森部长最近暗示,即将出台一项关于财政整顿的计划,部分目的是试图安抚债券市场。您是否参与其中?您知道他所说的内容吗?嗯,我想我不会透露任何细节。我会让他们公布该计划。但我要说的是,他们在第一份和解法案中与国会紧密合作,为促进增长的举措奠定了基础。

And we saw that prior to the conflict with even 4.3% GDP growth, uh, 10% increase in business investment. Uh, you know, on almost every economic, uh, Indicator in metric. It was moving in the right direction. But but again, there are the real drivers that I think are more politically difficult for both parties. And that's why they've everybody has sort of, uh, stayed away taking a pass kick the can down the road. And uh, we're just we're running out of room.

我们看到,即使在冲突之前,GDP增长率也达到了4.3%,企业投资增长了10%。几乎每一项经济指标都显示出向好的趋势。但再次强调,我认为真正具有挑战性的驱动因素对两党来说在政治上更为困难。这就是为什么大家都某种程度上回避了这个问题,选择拖延。而我们正在耗尽回旋余地。

Social security, for example, will will go insolvent and there'll be a 27, 25% haircut for every beneficiary. If Congress doesn't get ahead of that and address it, and we can't do it in isolation from an either party, it has to be bipartisan, like Ronald Reagan did with tip O'Neill. Uh, the last time we addressed the insolvency and the sustainability of this incredibly important program for 60 plus million seniors. So that, I think, is this time calls for real leadership, and it calls for tapping into the the love of country and patriotism from both both sides of the aisle.

以社会保障为例,它将面临破产,每位受益人的待遇将被削减25%。如果国会不提前着手解决这一问题,且我们不能脱离两党合作来单独处理,就必须像罗纳德·里根与蒂普·奥尼尔那样实现跨党派合作。上次我们应对这一对6000多万老年人至关重要的项目的破产和可持续性危机时就是这样做的。因此,我认为这次需要真正的领导力,并呼吁激发两党人士对国家的热爱和爱国情怀。

This is a unique challenge, and it's one that that has to be met. And it will be, by the way, on the watch of the next president, you will have this exploration of the Social Security Trust Fund. So we better start sounding the alarm. I think the American people have to engage in this. It's certainly going to be a front and center issue for the next president and the next presidential election. Well, you clearly feel very strongly about this, Mr.

这是一个独特的挑战,必须予以应对。顺便说一下,下一任总统任期内将展开对社会保障信托基金的审查。所以我们最好尽早发出警报。我认为美国民众必须参与其中。这显然将成为下一任总统及下次总统大选的核心议题。显然,您对这一点有着强烈的看法,主席先生,以及解决欺诈问题的必要性。您今天发表了一篇关于此的评论文章。但我想回到您之前提到的关于我们强劲的经济数据方面……

Chairman, as well as of the need to address fraud. You have an op ed about that today. Uh, but I want to go back to what you were saying about the strong economic figures that we were

主席先生,以及解决欺诈问题的必要性。您今天发表了一篇关于此的评论文章。但我想回到您之前提到的关于我们强劲的经济数据方面……

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