美联储褐皮书:经济温和扩张,通胀担忧犹存
Fed Sees Modest Wage Growth, Dell Gets Boost | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 9/2/2026
美联储褐皮书是判断宏观周期与利率预期的核心高频数据。本期确认了“温和扩张”的基准状态,并点出数据中心投资对非住宅建设的拉动以及能源价格的不确定性,有助于投资者校准对美联储9月议息会议的预期。
THIS IS BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY REPORTING FROM THE MAGAZINE THAT HELPS GLOBAL LEADERS STAY AHEAD WITH INSIGHT ON THE PEOPLE, COMPANIES AND TRENDS SHAPING TODAY'S COMPLEX ECONOMY, PLUS GLOBAL BUSINESS, FINANCE AND TECH NEWS AS IT HAPPENS. BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY WITH CAROL MASSAR AND TIM STENOVEC COME ALIVE ON BLOOMBERG RADIO, TELEVISION AND BLOOMBERG ORIGINALS. TIM: IT IS BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY LIVE FROM THE STUDIO IN NEW YORK.
I'M 10 STENOVEC -- I'M TIM STENOVEC. CAROL MASSAR IS OUT. LISA, WE HAVE A PACKED HOUR. WE WILL GET MORE FROM CHARLIE ON MARKETS AND A SECOND BUT STOCKS ARE UP AFTER CONCERNS ABOUT INFLATION ARE DISSIPATING EVER SO SLIGHTLY. WE TALKED TO MIKE MCKEE ABOUT THAT IN THE SECOND. SOLID CORPORATE EARNINGS ARE BRINGING BARGAIN HUNTERS IN. WE'RE ARE ALSO GOING AROUND THE WORLD. LISA: A LOT ABOUT OIL, BRENT CRUDE AT $95 A BARREL, UP NEARLY 1%.
THE OIL MARKET STARTING TO RISE A BIT. TIM: TYLER KENDALL WILL BE JOINING US IN A MINUTE LIVE FROM VENEZUELA FOLLOWING INTERVIEWS WITH LEADERS OF CHEVRON. ALSO SPEAKING WITH DAN SCHREIBER ON THE LATEST INSURANCE EXPANSION AND ANNOUNCEMENTS WHEN IT COMES TO AI IN THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY. WE ARE WATCHING THE BEIGE BOOK CLOSELY. AS WE WAIT FOR THE HEADLINES WILL BRING AN CHARLIE PELLETT WHO WAS STANDING BY WITH AN UPDATE.
CHARLIE: HELLO, LOOKING AT AN UPDATE FOR THE DOW, S&P AND NASDAQ, STOCKS ROSE AFTER A DROP FUELED BY CONCERNS ABOUT INFLATION. WE HAVE THE SO-CALLED DIP BUYERS COMING INTO THE MARKET WITH S&P 500 PUSHING HIGHER UP 34, 76.66, A GAIN OF 0.5%. THE DOW UP HIGHER ALMOST 0.5%, JASDAQ -- NASDAQ UP 0.3%. RUSSELL 2000 UP 1.1%. GOLD IS UP AND WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE UP BY 1.1 PERCENT. CHEVRON MAKING BIG NEWS TODAY PLANNING TO INVEST $7 BILLION THE NEXT FIVE YEARS.
JOINT VENTURE PARTNERSHIPS, WITH PRODUCTION VENEZUELA. CHEVRON UP 0.5%. ITALIAN OIL GIANT LIFTING ITS VENEZUELAN PRODUCTION TO MORE THAN ONE MILLION BARRELS A DAY. GE VERNOVA COMMITTING TO REPAIR LARGE PORTION OF VENEZUELA'S POWER GRID. THEY ARE UP BY 1.9%. I'M CHARLIE PELLETT AND THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. TIM: THE BEIGE BOOK HEADLINES ARE CROSSING. THE BEIGE BOOK, ANECDOTAL INFORMATION FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICTS AROUND THE COUNTRY, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INCREASED MODESTLY SINCE EARLY JULY UNEMPLOYMENT ROSE SLIGHTLY.
MICHAEL MCKEE IS WITH US, OUR ECONOMICS AND POLICY CORRESPONDENT. WHAT DID WE LEARN? MICHAEL: DOESN'T SOUND LIKE A LOT OF CHAIN BETWEEN WHAT WE HAD SEEN THE LAST COUPLE MONTHS AND THIS LATEST REPORT, WHICH COVERS AUGUST. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY UP MODESTLY. THEY SAY MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY PICKED UP ACROSS MOST DISTRICTS. SERVICES FIRMS REPORTED SLIGHT TO MODEST INCREASES. RESIDENTIAL DOES -- CONSTRUCTION DECLINED AND NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION INCREASED.
YOU WILL BE SHOCKED TO KNOW SOME DISTRICTS NOTED A HIGH CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY RELATED TO DATA CENTERS. TIM: I KNEW YOU WOULD SAY THAT. SO IF WE CAN'T FIND A HOUSE WE CAN LIVE IN A DATA CENTER? MICHAEL: THE GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE COMING MONTHS WAS POSITIVE. THE SENTIMENT WAS MIXED ACROSS SECTORS WITH CONTACTS REPORTING HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE EFFECTS OF HIGHER ENERGY PRICES, POLICY AND INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT.
IF I HAD READ THIS TO YOU IN MID JULY WERE MID JUNE, WOULD NOT HAVE SOUNDED OUT OF PLACE. WHAT THE FED IS GETTING IS THE SAME INFORMATION PEOPLE HAVE BEEN GIVING US FOR QUITE SOME TIME. THE ECONOMY SEEMS TO BE IN STATUS QUO, EXPANDING. LABOR MARKET SEEM TO BE STEADY BUT THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT INFLATION AND EVERYONE IS KEEPING AN EYE ON WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE MIDDLE EAST. LISA: WHAT ABOUT THE HEALTH OF THE AMERICAN CONSUMER?
MICHAEL: ACCORDING TO THE STORY HERE, RETAIL, DEPENDING ON WHAT YOU WERE BUYING, PEOPLE WERE LOOKING BOTH AT THE PRICES. THERE WAS HEIGHTENED PRICE SENSITIVITY, BUT SPENDING DID GROW SLIGHTLY. SOLID HIGH END PURCHASES ON THE OTHER SIDE. THEM THAT HAVE IT WILL GET MORE. TIM: MICHAEL MCKEE, OUR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY AND POLITICS CORRESPONDENT WITH THE BEIGE BOOK. WALL STREET LASER FOCUSED ON WHAT THE FED WILL DO IN SEPTEMBER AND BEYOND, AND THE LATEST OUT OF VENEZUELA.
COMPANIES SIGNING DEALS THE BUT THE COUNTRY ON PACE TO RAPIDLY EXPAND OUTPUT OF CRUDE. CHEVRON PLANS TO INVEST $7 BILLION OVER FIVE YEARS THROUGH A JOINT VENTURE PARTNERSHIP TO MORE THAN DOUBLE CRUDE PRODUCTION VENEZUELA. TYLER KENDALL IS IN VENEZUELA WHERE SHE SPOKE TO BOTH THE U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY AND MIKE WORTH THE CEO OF CHEVRON. WHAT CAN YOU TELL US ABOUT WHAT ENERGY COMPANIES ARE DOING TODAY IN VENEZUELA? TYLER: WE JUST FINISHED A SIGNING CEREMONY THAT TOOK LACE IN THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE WHERE I AM RIGHT NOW WHERE WE SAW A FLURRY OF DEALS FROM THE PRIVATE SECTOR THAT ARE BOOSTING THEIR INVESTMENT TO HELP DRILL MORE AND INCREASE THE OIL OUTPUT IN VENEZUELA.
RELATIVELY SPEAKING WE HAVE NOT SEEN PRODUCTION RAMP UP IN THE WAKE OF THE OUSTER OF NICOLAS MADURO. DATA SHOWING VENEZUELA IS AVERAGING 1.1 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY, WELL BELOW THE HEIGHT OF PRODUCTION THREE DECADES AGO AROUND 3.5 MILLION BARRELS. THE BACKDROP IS, SENIOR OFFICIALS, IT IS PART OF THE BID TO MAKE THE INDUSTRY MORE COMFORTABLE IN INVESTING IN VENEZUELA AMID THIS RELATIVE HESITANCY. THE BACKDROP INCLUDES THE U.S.
GOVERNMENT DEAL WHERE THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE TAKING THIS EQUITY STAKE IN A PRIVATE COMPANY THAT HAS BEEN GRANTED A HUNDRED YEAR LEASE TO DEVELOP NEARLY 17 STRATEGIC OIL FIELDS. THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE LEGAL DURABILITY AND FEASIBILITY WHEN IT COMES TO SCALE. THE U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY TOLD ME THEY ARE EXPECTING TO RAMP THIS UP AT FULL SPEED.
THERE IS SCALE IN SEVERAL OF THOSE FIELDS. A NUMBER HAVE NOT SEEN MEANINGFUL DEVELOPMENT YET. SOME HAD RUSSIAN OR CHINESE PARTNERSHIPS, FRANKLY CRIMINAL PARTNERSHIPS. THAT IS TO BRING THESE FIELDS INTO REAL COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE SPEED OF THINGS. WE HAVE GONE AT TRUMP SPEED IN VENEZUELA. COUNTRY PRODUCTION IS UP 25%, EXPORTS UP 50%. WE THINK EVEN FOR PRODUCTION TODAY, ALREADY ELEVATED, THAT COULD DOUBLE BY THE END OF THIS DECADE.
TYLER: THE U.S. GOVERNMENT WILL ALSO BE GRANTED THE RIGHT TO PURCHASE 20% OF THE PRODUCTION OUTPUT FROM THIS JOINT VENTURE AT COST, SO BELOW MARKET PRICE. WE ARE TOLD THAT WILL BE USED TO FILL THE STRATEGIC OIL RESERVE WHICH IS AT RECORD LOWS. I ASKED ENERGY SECRETARY DIRECTLY ABOUT WHETHER VENEZUELAN CRUDE WOULD GO TO THE SPR. HE SAID IT WOULD BE A SWAP MECHANISM BUT IT IS DESIGNED TO BOLSTER THOSE SUPPLIES, SINCE THEY ARE RUNNING PRETTY LOW.
LISA: YOU HAD A BUSY DAY AND SPOKE WITH THE CHEVRON CEO MIKE WORTH. WHAT DID HE TELL YOU? A LOT OF QUESTIONS AROUND WHAT PROTECTIONS HAS CHEVRON BUILT INTO THIS INVESTING DEAL. TYLER: THAT IS PERHAPS ONE OF THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS. WHAT EXACTLY DID THEY GET FROM THE VENEZUELAN GOVERNMENT OR ASSURANCES FROM THE U.S. GOVERNMENT, WHEN IT COMES TO EXPANDING INVESTMENT IN VENEZUELA ON THE HEELS OF THE LARGEST FINANCIAL EQUIPMENT WE HAVE SEEN FROM A MAJOR OIL COMPANY SINCE THE OUSTER OF NICOLAS MADURO.
I WILL LET HIM ANSWER THAT FOR ME. TAKE A LISTEN TO WHEN I PRESSED HIM ON WHAT THIS CONTRACT WILL LOOK LIKE --
AS IMPORTANT AS THE COMMERCIAL AND PHYSICAL TERMS WHERE THE LEGAL TERMS AND PROTECTIONS FOR INVESTORS WHICH IS AN ISSUE WE DEAL WITH IN MANY COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD. WE HAVE PROVISIONS THAT ARE VERY STRONG RELATIVE TO OTHER CONTRACTS AS IT RELATES TO RESOLVING DISPUTES, ENSURING THE TAX AND ROYALTY REGIME WE HAVE AGREED TO AND WILL INVEST UNDER ISN'T CHANGED ON US. TYLER: WORTH TOLD ME THIS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO DOUBLE CHEVRON'S DEVELOPMENT HERE IN VENEZUELA OVER THE COMING YEARS.
HE IS CURRENTLY INSIDE THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE MEETING WITH OTHER ENERGY CEOS AS WELL AS THE ENERGY SECRETARY, AND INTERIM AS IT INTO OF VENEZUELA, DELCY RODRIGUEZ. TIM: I'M WONDERING WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? THERE ARE A LOT OF QUESTIONS NOT JUST ABOUT THE DURABILITY OF THE DEAL, BUT WHAT IS THE NEXT THING YOU'RE WATCHING OUT FOR TO UNDERSTAND THE FULL EXTENT OF AMERICAN INVESTMENT IN THIS COUNTRY? TYLER: THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT E
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