中东局势致欧洲天然气与柴油供应收紧推升通胀预期

LNG deliveries in Europe are down about 20% year on year, uh, seasonal basis. Um, that's to do because of the Hormuz crisis. Uh, you know, it's closed. Um, that's resulted in, uh, taking away essentially a fifth of global LNG supply, uh, from the market. And, um, and the countries that are, uh, filling the gap are India. Um, some Northeast Asian countries. Um, instead, uh, Europe is not really rushing to refill. Uh, the government hasn't set really hard targets.

Uh, to be to that they've done in the past. And they're after the Ukraine invasion. Uh, by by Russia. Um, the governments in the EU set targets for 80%, 90% by, by November. We're not seeing this this year. It's they're much more flexible. And to be honest, you don't need to be at 100%. Um, Europe will be able to get through its winter with inventories. The issue, though, is that the lower inventories go. And as they get drained, that will only increase the price of natural gas in the future, which means that consumers in Europe will have to pay more and that just results in more inflation.

Yeah, I mean, this is sort of one dimension of the inflation story. Obviously, crude oil is something we spend a lot of time talking about. But now obviously diesel is in full focus. And that is a large in large part because of, you know, Russian refining capacity that's getting knocked out increasingly by the Ukrainians. That is not seem like something that is going to diminish. What is the dynamic that we're seeing right now in the diesel market?

And is this idea of a sort of a winter energy inflation shock kind of an inevitability at this point? You know, that raises a really good point, because diesel is, as we describe, the workhorse of the global economy. Um, it's used not just for transport, for trucks, but also in industries. And actually, there is an interesting dynamic because some industries switch between diesel and natural gas. And when both of them are expensive, they don't really have any other option to go to.

So these are the fuels that I think a lot of people don't often think about. Right. You often you look at crude oil price, but when diesel and natural gas are rising that does directly again hit the consumer. Now in the diesel market we are seeing an increase in, in the um, in the spread that the costs are basically the profits that you can get from producing it. Um, diesel prices are at the highest level, um, in weeks.

And as this continues, you know, it doesn't seem like there will be any let up with the Ukrainian attacks on on Russian infrastructure. Russia is a major producer of diesel. Um, they've had to curb their exports. And at the same time, you're also seeing output being affected in the Middle East as well and not getting through Hormuz. So these are two kind of dual factors that are that are hitting the global economy. And as we go into winter and as demand for heating increases, you do need to use different types of oil.

You have to use fuel and you also have to use natural gas. And if those are all expensive, that just means higher utility bills for consumers.