美债收益率攀升，市场押注30年期利率年底或达5.7%

Now flip the board. When energy prices rise in such a manner, it is threatening higher yields overall, already against a backdrop, of course, of what we're seeing in terms of the government spending as well as corporate borrowings to come. And it's almost as if when it comes to yields, there isn't a cap to the upside for them. And this is, of course, coming on a day where we've seen treasuries erase all of their gains since the Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, announced two weeks ago that expansion of a buyback plan.

And not only that, if you look at the yield on the ten year, it is also at the highest since 2023. And you may recall back then, the fed was still in the midst of higher for longer. Now we're also seeing traders paying for protection in the options market. So they are positioning in a way that will benefit of yields continue climbing, including a notable one on Monday, $6.5 million bet on the 30 year yield, rising to as high as 5.7% by the end of November.

I think the message is loud and clear. From the world's largest bond market that, you know, all this Treasury buyback talk is not going to be enough. And investors also want to see a durable way out of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran and higher yields, not just for treasuries, but across the G20 universe. Hong, thank you so much for that. Juliet, great to have you with us. I mean, we talked about the energy prices going higher, the inflation risk.

I mean, it's interesting that we're not seeing just yields rising in one particular country or one region in the world. It's really globally this push higher, given that we're continuing to see this global term premia increasing around the world on the inflation risk, central bank risk, not to mention fiscal risks, is a trend for yields higher from now on? Sure. Good morning. Thanks for having me. So I think you are.

You know, you're absolutely right that there are actually two sort of global common things that are running through this repricing in bond. And one is of course the resurgence of oil prices on the back of escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. And that is just incredibly hard for the market to really understand. For how long is this going to last? And what will be the oil price reaction to that as the duration drags on?

And that is something that is, I think, a very uncomfortable thought, because this was something that was supposed to be wrapped up, you know, months before, but it's still ongoing and looks like it could kick well into the midterms next year. And the second question is this sit uncomfortably with these long standing concerns around fiscal policy in most of developed market and not just one market. Everybody has a relatively loose fiscal policy since Covid.

And there's been no real fiscal consolidation on a systematic basis. So I think that these two things are not the common thematics that are running through the longer end. The bond market at the moment, in particular longer end of the bond market. Mark, do we look to the U.S. Treasury then to come in more, more forcefully than they have already, uh, over the past two weeks? Interesting. I was at a conference yesterday and there was some discussions in the coffee area about what would the what would the US Treasury do if you it's really become unstable, if it looks as though they've lost control of the of the market, and people are beginning to prepare themselves for extreme scenarios, that obviously the friction between the central bank and the US Treasury is not working out well.

Investors can see through that when they're not on the same page. Typically that's bad for a market and that's being reflected in US bonds. So what could the US Treasury do? And people are now really starting to think that rather than just buying long term bonds, they may even throw something far more extreme an out of left field at the market, which is completely not expecting to try and bring prices down to try and stabilize the market.

Sometimes those kind of things have a short term effect in the long run, normally quite damaging, but that's what people are bracing for. They're bracing for the U.S. Treasury to do something which is not in the game plan at all. Something never tried before, but it may bring some short term relief to the market.