全球宏观顾问：美债收益率上升源于政策预期而非市场失灵

So joining us now to discuss all of this is tradition devised global macro adviser, Steven Major. Steven, good to have you with us. Good morning. At a time where yields global yields are rising massively. We're looking at the ten year yields, the thirty year yields in treasuries in The United States. Does that worry you at all? Well, everyone's reaching for new superlatives to to describe the next high that's been reached.

And I think the easy option for me would be to come on the show and just agree with everybody else and and say there's lots of supply coming, so yields are going up. Up. So I'm gonna sound like a bit of a heretic by saying something else in in that the yields are higher because the policy rate expectations have shifted. At the start of the year, The US had three cuts priced in for the year ahead. Oil prices were falling.

It was a much calmer backdrop. Now we have at least a a hike priced in. So that that's a swing of four. Four twenty five is 100 basis points. That largely explains the yield shift up. Yeah? Now globally, you've had upward pressure probably led by Japan of of all of them. Right? Japan's yields have moved faster than anybody else's. The UK, Australia, Germany, France, everyone's seed yield seed yields go up. So so to put the the blame for all of this on The US fiscal position, I I I think it's a bit weak.

But but, Steven, that would impact I mean, the the the rate expectations or the changing rate expectations Yeah. Would impact the two year notes, which we've seen rising about six six basis points because we're now expecting what markets are expecting a 70% hike in September. Yeah. But we're talking about thirty year yields and the buyback that really did am I is it farfetched to say did nothing to help them? Yeah. So they had they preannounced that they're gonna do something in September.

So the the the action hasn't really started, but it's peanuts, really. Right? We're talking about very small amounts in a market of $2,930,000,000,000,000 dollar free float of treasuries to be talking about a few million here and there. It's not gonna do anything. So it's it's more about the the intention and the action. But I think the treasury market's working perfectly well. And my my comment is focused on the swap spreads because it because if there was a problem, the spread between the treasuries and the the the the OIS rates, the SOFR rates, which are the risk free rates of choice, that spread will be widening.

So the treasury yield will be going up by more than the swaps. It isn't happening. It's the the opposite issue, which which says to me, this idea that there's a dysfunction and there's some kind of credit or default risk or fiscal policy risk, it it doesn't hold water. Okay. So no doomsday scenario. Yeah. Exactly. But we're seeing higher yields, higher oil, lower stocks this morning. Yeah. Does that bring about any concern about the future of the dollar?

Well, yes. If if there was one big concern here is that the assumptions we've made about this being a supply shock that would fade and that things would go back to normal in this region, that that that, again, looks a bit tenuous given events of the last twenty four hours. And I think central banks were planning, whatever hikes they planned. For example, the ECB was talking about hiking a few months ago. They probably have to go again.

If if the supply shock isn't temporary and the energy prices are elevated for a long time, then then the assumptions they were making in May and June May and June don't hold. So the the question for the dollar is an interesting one. The the the dollar's held up perhaps better than many people would have expected given the geopolitical situation, given reduced holdings by foreign central banks, etcetera. So the dollar's held up, and I think cyclical issues have helped.

So the strength of The US economy rate differentials. But if you start to see The US economy cooling, and there there have been signs of that, some of the data has been softer with the exception of inflation perhaps. So most of it's been softer. If if if that starts to happen with some of these structural and political issues that are negative, then you you could see the dollar start to decline against other currencies.

Okay. And what about Asian bonds? Because we're seeing similar moves in in sell offs in Australia and JGBs Yeah. As well. Do they tell a fiscal underlying story, or is it just mimicking market moves and, of course, because of the geopolitical issues? And you didn't mention China. Nothing in China. Right? Well, I think The the backdrop for China is, by the way, disinflationary and stability. They've been the safety bond of choice if you if you look back with hindsight.

So Japanese yields, we know why those yields are high because the Bank of Japan's gonna hike. It's almost inevitable they're gonna hike. Maybe may maybe it's about the strength of the forward guidance they give on how hawkish they're gonna be. Yeah. And and and Australia is just following, I think, the global picture. Picture. So so it is a global story of higher yields. Stephen, this may be hard to answer, but I'm gonna throw it anyway.

What do you do with the geopolitics? What do you do with this conflict? No near end in sight. It it's it's a very difficult question. So so it's a it's a new normal. We've kind of had to adjust to this permanent sense of anxiety and tension. And and I don't want to be elitited at all, but but that's what happens. Right? We we, in markets and as humans, we adjust to to the circumstances around us. So that's why I think markets are able to function so well.