Duppler评贝森特：AI生产力预期乐观但合理
Duppler: Bessent's AI Outlook Is Optimistic, But Plausible
涵盖贝森特关于AI生产力时间表的最新表态及对中国银行二级制裁可行性的分析，涉及宏观利率逻辑与地缘金融风险，建议关注其对美债供需及跨境支付体系的潜在影响。
On the bond market, specifically when he was pressed about how do you bring the ten year rate down? Should he have had more to say, more plans to detail? That's a question you'll have to ask him. But I think that the Treasury Secretary is in a position where he had really the full faith and confidence of the fed chair last week, talking about how the Federal Reserve didn't see a lot of restraint or a lot of construction in the credit market.
在债券市场上，特别是当被问及如何降低十年期利率时？他是否应该有更多话要说，更多计划需要详述？这是一个你得去问他的问题。但我认为，财政部长处于一个上周得到了美联储主席充分信任和信心的位置，谈到美联储并未看到信贷市场中有太多的限制或建设性举措。
And so I think that the Treasury Secretary doesn't need to offer as many assurances as he may have had to in the absence of the fed chair, kind of giving that full throated confidence about the credit market, because the fed chair was so confident in his remarks on Friday. I think that the Treasury Secretary doesn't have to spend too much time on what the ten year is yielding in this discussion where he wants to stay focus on the US, Iran and the U.S. leadership across the globe.
因此，我认为财政部长不需要像在没有美联储主席的情况下那样提供那么多保证，那种对信贷市场的毫无保留的信心，因为美联储主席在周五的言论中表现得如此自信。我认为财政部长不必花太多时间讨论十年期收益率，因为他希望将重点放在美国、伊朗以及美国在全球的领导地位上。
Well, just quickly, on borrowing costs. He did note about that. He described it as a quote, conundrum on all the IE borrowing that is happening as well. There's this competition, uh, for capital that obviously is exacerbating, The demand investors are putting upon the US government for more yield uh, to to buy U.S. government debt rather than the debt of all these other, uh, corporate issuers. Do you expect that problem is going to go away anytime soon?
嗯，快速谈谈借贷成本。他确实提到了这一点。他将此描述为引用中的“谜团”，涉及所有正在发生的IE（可能是指企业或机构）借贷。存在这种资本竞争，显然加剧了投资者对美国政府的压力，要求更高的收益率来购买美国政府债务，而不是这些其他公司发行人的债务。你预计这个问题会很快消失吗？
Mattie, the Treasury secretary, talking about how I spending ultimately will be disinflationary. He thinks the positive stuff's coming in about six months. Is that overly optimistic? To me, that was actually the most remarkable part. Six months to see a total watershed moment in productivity due to I think that is a very optimistic assessment. But again, looking at the pace of AI and how it has accelerated changes in business.
马蒂，财政部长谈到AI支出最终将是反通胀的。他认为积极的影响将在六个月内显现。这是否过于乐观？对我来说，这实际上是最令人惊讶的部分。六个月就能看到由于AI带来的生产力全面转折点，我认为这是一个非常乐观的评估。但再次观察AI的发展速度及其加速商业变革的能力。
You can't count it out either. I do think this conundrum, you know, I would probably state it a different way. The idea that we have technology at our backs to increase productivity and increase, as the Treasury secretary said, real wages, that could be a huge development. Because of what we have faced over the last 20 years, Americans have continued to benefit from technology as, uh, as people who, um, use technology.
你也无法完全排除它的可能性。我确实认为这个谜团，你知道，我可能会用不同的方式表述。我们拥有技术作为后盾以提高生产力和增加实际工资，正如财政部长所说，这可能是一个巨大的发展。由于过去20年我们所面临的挑战，美国人继续从技术中受益，就像那些使用技术的人一样。
Now, the question is whether or not on the supply side, Americans are going to benefit from that technology as well, if it is a boon to productivity. And of course, the fed chair raised this question as well last week. That could represent a shift in what we have seen in developed economies in the past. Usually you see this type of CapEx that we've been promised from AI companies. You see that productivity cycle start as soon as they start putting their shovels in the ground.
现在的问题是，在供应端，如果这项技术确实能提升生产力，美国人是否也能从中受益。当然，美联储主席上周也提出了这个问题。这可能代表着我们过去在发达经济体中所见情况的一种转变。通常你会看到人工智能公司承诺的那种类型的资本支出（CapEx）。一旦他们开始动工，生产力周期就会随之启动。
We haven't seen that yet from the build in data centers, but that doesn't mean that it won't materialize in the form of higher earnings for workers and from adjacent industries. It was interesting. The Treasury secretary was asked whether he's had direct conversations with China in this meeting around AI. The suggestion was he hasn't because his counterpart wasn't there. He was also pressed on the China issue when it comes to Iran and secondary sanctions being put into place, he suggested China is on the same page with ultimate objectives around the Strait of Hormuz and Iran not having a nuclear weapon.
我们尚未从数据中心建设中看到这一点，但这并不意味着它不会以工人和相邻行业更高收入的形式实现。有趣的是，当被问及在本次会议上是否与中国就人工智能问题进行过直接对话时，财政部长表示没有，因为他的中方 counterparts 不在场。当被进一步追问关于伊朗问题以及二级制裁的实施时，他暗示中国在霍尔木兹海峡及伊朗不拥有核武器这一最终目标上与美国立场一致。
But if the U.S. were actually to pull out that hammer and slap Chinese banks with secondary sanctions, can the Treasury Secretary do that without putting the global financial system at material risk? I think the global I think the Treasury secretary can do that because of the strength of the financial services industry here. You highlighted a tension that is extremely acute in this moment. The U.S. is unwilling to say out loud, perhaps, that Chinese banks need to suffer consequences for taking the proceeds of the Iranian oil trade.
但如果美国真的动用这柄大锤，对中国的银行实施二级制裁，财政部长能否在不使全球金融体系面临实质性风险的情况下做到这一点？我认为全球……我认为财政部长可以做到这一点，因为这里的金融服务行业实力强劲。你指出了一个在当前时刻极其尖锐的紧张关系。美国可能不愿公开表示，中国银行为承接伊朗石油贸易所得而需承担后果。
But that's exactly what he was alleging in this speech today was that as long as there is still the ability of the U.S. to cut off the ability of people and, uh, institutions that are trading with, uh, Iran and Iranian products, he says that that's where the US ultimately will be successful by being able to cut off that trade of U.S. dollars. The strength of the U.S. financial services industry can withstand that kind of tension.
但他今天演讲中正是主张，只要美国仍有能力切断与伊朗及其产品进行交易的个人和机构的渠道，他说美国最终将通过切断美元交易的能力取得成功。美国金融服务行业的实力能够承受这种紧张局势。
The question is whether or not we have a regulatory regimes in place that don't allow other aspects and other venues for changing over U.S. dollars.
问题是，我们是否已建立起监管制度，不允许其他方面和其他渠道来替代美元的使用。
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