Bloomberg：能源成本推升欧洲国债收益率，曲线形态成焦点

You join us once again on a day where we are worried about European governments bond yields or global bond yields, perhaps we should say, but it's having an impact here on Europe. We are seeing, you know, those yields ticking up once again just a little. So what is your expectation around the bond market story in Europe. Yeah I think in the euro area I think we definitely have scope to keep seeing yields rising. I think unless it's a major, major geopolitical off run.

I think it's very difficult to see the case for lower borrowing costs at the moment. I think going forward is what's more interesting is what happens to the shape of the curve. We've kind of seen through 2026, this flattening of European curves, which is primarily being driven by the ECB. We've seen them deliver one hike. They're probably due another next month. And then that price for another 50 basis points by about July September next year.

And I think it's interesting because that would take you kind of about 50 basis points into restrictive territory depending on what estimate you use. And we did actually see this ECB blog yesterday noting the distinction between what we've seen at the moment and what we saw in the pandemic, whereby this has a much more of a supply driven advent that was more of a demand led element. I've already seen, you know, fiscal policy in monetary policy weighed down on growth and inflation.

I think I'll say the timing's interesting there. I don't know. I'm kind of skeptical that markets may be kind of getting a bit over their skis a little bit here. And if we do see that the front end could become a little bit more anchored whilst at the back end. Inflation persistence can keep rising yields at time where we're seeing all this idiosyncratic risk. You know in France, in Germany. So yeah I think I keep an eye on the shape of the curve going forward.

How at risk of gilts specifically, we've just had a headline that, um, the surge in UK borrowing costs has halved Labour's fiscal headroom. Do you think that Healey's going to add to all of this problem in the run up to the budget, but with the commentary, because Burnham yesterday was only seeming to be talking about more spending? Yeah. I mean, there's obviously this odd story that he's asked everyone from IT workers and junior, you know, interns for policy ideas.

But in terms of the broad trajectory, yes, I think gilts are definitely in potentially the firing line. We know we've got this acute energy exposure in the UK. I think what's interesting is in the data we've seen this week, we saw the BBC shot price data that was elevated and we've seen real evidence now that costs being passed on to consumers, which very much challenges some of the assumptions of the Bank of England whereby they're downplaying the inflation threat, citing the later weaker labour market.

So I think that Tees is up for an interest in September BOE rate decision. At a time when the ECB hiking, does the market begin to price a bit of a policy mistake as some of this fiscal risk, as you mentioned, comes to the fore with the budget next month and the big events of the week. Is it too early to talk about that now? Wednesday? No, it's Wednesday. To it Friday we get payrolls out. And what's your expectation?

I don't think it's going to be that much of a game changer, to be honest. I think, you know, all things equal. If you have a soft report in a normal trade environment, that would probably bring odds of a hike to round about 5050. I think Jackson Hole was kind of changed things a little bit there. They're very much hell bent on the inflation perspective. And even when most does comment on the labor market, it doesn't seem to first.

And any softening is citing it to two demographics. So I think yeah, it's very much still the case that just watching inflation. Yes. You may see some intraday volatility this Friday, but the CPI report will have the final say spoilt for data. Adam thank you very much. That's Adam Linton from our markets Live TV. And remember you can get up to date analysis and insight from Adam and the team by going to MLive. Go on your terminal.