澳洲房市降温：减税取消与加息致房价下跌
Australia Housing Boom Shows Signs of Cracking
The words Australian property and buyer's market are almost never uttered in the same sentence. Yet here we are. You can definitely see a bit of a difference between, you know, what similar properties are achieving now to what they were achieving even nine months ago. The price guide on this three bedroom, two bathroom terrace in the sought after inner city suburb of Paddington has been reduced from 3.5 down to $3.2 million.
“澳大利亚房产”和“买方市场”这两个词几乎从不被放在同一个句子里。然而，我们此刻正身处其中。你确实能明显感觉到，如今类似房产的成交价与九个月前的成交价相比存在差异。位于热门内城区 Paddington 的一栋三卧室两浴室联排别墅的价格指引已从 350 万澳元下调至 320 万澳元。
Still, buyers are taking their time bidding on further price reductions, with Australia in the grip of a rare property downturn. I've actually been having a lot of these conversations with, uh, agents who have been around for ten, 15, 20, 25 years and even even I haven't seen a market like this limited supply and robust migration, not helping support the market to a degree. But two other powerful factors are forcing prices down.
尽管如此，买家仍在观望，等待进一步降价后再出价，因为澳大利亚正陷入罕见的房地产低迷期。实际上，我与那些从业十年、十五年、二十年甚至二十五年的中介进行了大量此类对话。就连我也从未见过这样的市场：供应有限且移民强劲，但未能以足够的力度支撑市场。不过，另外两个强大因素正在迫使价格下跌。
Firstly, the government brought an end to generous tax breaks for property investors in the May budget, and around the same time, the reserve Bank lifted rates three times in a row, crimping buyers ability to borrow. The impact has been obvious. Cartel party data showing house prices slipping in almost every state capital in the three months to July. Sydney leading the declines with 4% buyers looks like it's going to be a quick auction.
首先，政府在五月预算案中结束了对房产投资者的慷慨税收减免；与此同时，储备银行连续三次加息，削弱了买家的借贷能力。影响显而易见。Cartel Party 数据显示，截至七月的前三个月里，几乎所有州首府的房屋价格都在下滑。悉尼跌幅领先，达到 4%。买家看来即将迎来一场快速的拍卖。
The data is supported by anecdotal evidence. This recent auction of Melbourne drawing zero bids at 1 to 5. We will formally pass the property. But what about those home buyers that bought right at the peak? In April, Jared and Donna Bruce won the keys to their new Sydney home for $1.75 million. Congratulations to you. Four months later. Its value is anyone's guess. But to the proud owners, that doesn't matter, because that's not the point.
这一数据得到了 anecdotal evidence（轶事证据）的支持。墨尔本最近的一场拍卖中，一套房产在 100 万至 150 万澳元的价位上零出价，我们将正式将该房产流拍。那么，那些在峰值时购房的购房者呢？四月，Jared 和 Donna Bruce 以 175 万澳元的价格赢得了他们在悉尼新家的钥匙。恭喜你们。四个月后，它的价值无人能猜透。但对于这些自豪的主人来说，这并不重要，因为那并非重点。
I'm fine about it. Um, so where? We're not going anywhere in a hurry. So this is this is the plan to live here long term. Um, so that that's not really affecting us buying a house with the intention of living in it. That sounds like how a normal housing market should function. But Australia's housing market has been far from normal for a very long time. And this has consequences. So many Australians now have so much skin in the property market that when prices fall, consumer confidence falls with them.
我对此毫不在意。嗯，所以我们要去哪里？我们不会急着搬走。所以我们的计划是长期居住在这里。嗯，因此，购买这栋打算长期居住的房子的意图并没有真正影响到我们。这听起来像是正常住房市场应有的运作方式。但澳大利亚的房地产市场长期以来远非正常。而这带来了后果。如今许多澳大利亚人在房地产市场中有如此多的利益攸关，以至于当价格下跌时，消费者信心也随之下降。
In an environment where inflation is higher and potentially interest rates could still increase as well. I think it is playing a really big part, and that is what you're picking up in the outlook statements from a lot of companies this reporting season. Is that more cautious tone, particularly around the consumer. House prices are famously known as the barbecue stopper conversation in Australia. Previously, the conversation was about how high they might go.
在通胀高企且利率可能进一步上升的环境中，我认为这正发挥着非常重要的作用，这也是本财报季许多公司展望声明中所反映出的更为谨慎的基调，尤其是在消费者方面。在澳大利亚，房价素有“烧烤聚会终结者”之称。过去人们谈论的是房价可能涨到多高。
Now it's about how hard they might fall and how wide and deep the economic impact crater might be. Paul Allen Bloomberg. Sydney.
而现在讨论的则是房价可能下跌得多厉害，以及经济冲击坑洞的范围有多广、深度有多深。保罗·艾伦，彭博社，悉尼。
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