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Strategy CEO:牛市不卖BTC,目标15万美元

Bitcoin Holders: Prepare for a MUCH BIGGER Dip?

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Strategy作为最大机构持有者的明确增持计划与价格指引,直接定义了当前市场的边际买盘逻辑与估值锚点,对持仓决策有实质性参考意义。

I don't foresee us selling Bitcoin as we enter into what I consider a pretty heavy bull market.

我认为我们不会在牛市行情中出售比特币。

I think 150 is still possible. Now is the time to act. It is not too late. Bitcoin is getting ready to enter a pretty heavy bull market. That's according to Strategy CEO Fong Lee telling Bloomberg that he does not foresee strategy selling more Bitcoin anytime soon. what needs to happen or or or what would indicate to you the next right time to actually offload some Bitcoin from your balance sheet?

我认为15万美元仍然是可能的。现在是行动的时候。为时不晚。比特币正准备进入一个相当强劲的牛市。这是Strategy首席执行官Fong Lee告诉彭博社的,他表示他不认为Strategy会在近期出售更多比特币。那么,需要发生什么或什么迹象会让你觉得是时候从资产负债表上实际抛售一些比特币了?

Um, we're a net accumulator, right? And so I don't sit around and say, "Well, when am I going to sell Bitcoin next?" It it comes down to a bit of a a capital management mathematical equation of when we would do it. Um, I don't foresee us selling Bitcoin as we enter into what I consider a pretty heavy bull market. And yeah, we'll be buying Bitcoin at 80,000. We'll likely be buying Bitcoin at 90, at 100. And when Bitcoin hits 130,000 and all-time high, we'll be buying it.

嗯,我们是净积累者,对吧?所以我不会坐在那里想,“我什么时候会卖比特币?”这归结为一个资本管理的数学方程,即我们何时会这样做。嗯,我认为我们不会在牛市行情中出售比特币。是的,我们会在8万美元买入比特币。我们可能会在9万、10万美元买入比特币。当比特币达到13万美元的历史新高时,我们还会继续买入。

And people will say we're buying the top. And when it's at $260,000, people will say the $130,000 Bitcoin was a good purchase.

人们会说我们在买顶。而当它达到26万美元时,人们会说13万美元的比特币是一笔不错的购买。

So, with Bitcoin hitting $100,000 this year in sight before this huge rip, is it possible we see one final dip? That is very possible if macro events like this continue to play out. Brent crude oil surges over $95 as US launches strikes on Iran.

因此,随着比特币今年有望突破10万美元大关,在这波大幅上涨之前,是否有可能出现最后一次下跌?如果像这样的宏观事件继续发展,这是非常可能的。布伦特原油飙升至95美元以上,因为美国对伊朗发动了打击。

Everybody having a good time?

大家都玩得开心吗?

If tensions with Iran continue to escalate, we could see a rate hike and a big dip in markets. So, are tensions escalating? Well, Iran says it is now retaliating against the US strikes today that were conducted around the Strait of Hermoose just minutes ago. Iran says American bases and interests across the region will be targeted with missiles and drones, specifically naming Bahrain and Kuwait. One hour ago, President Trump threatened that Iran would be hit again much harder if they retaliated and oil prices continue to surge. odds of a Fed rate hike surge. 60% of a Fed rate hike this month.

如果与伊朗的紧张局势持续升级,我们可能会看到加息和市场的剧烈下跌。那么,紧张局势是否在升级呢?好吧,伊朗表示,它现在正在对美国今天进行的打击进行报复,这些打击发生在几分钟前霍尔木兹海峡附近。伊朗称,该地区的美国基地和利益将成为导弹和无人机的目标,特别点名巴林和科威特。一小时前,特朗普总统威胁说,如果伊朗进行报复,它将受到更猛烈的打击,油价将继续飙升。美联储加息的可能性激增。本月美联储加息的概率为60%。

The next FOMC meeting takes place right in the middle of this month. Prepare for volatility into this. And yet, there is so much hope on the horizon that Bitcoin ends the year above 100,000, maybe even 150,000 still possible. Analyst Tom Lee is looking for Bitcoin and Ethereum to have a huge fourth quarter. Tom Lee explains the three big catalysts that will send Bitcoin to $150,000 by the end of this year. Listen to all three catalysts and tell me what you think.

下一次FOMC会议将在本月中旬举行。为此做好波动性的准备。然而,前景中充满了希望,比特币年底可能超过10万美元,甚至15万美元仍然可能。分析师Tom Lee预计比特币和以太坊将在第四季度表现强劲。Tom Lee解释了将推动比特币在本年底前达到15万美元的三大催化剂。听听这三个催化剂,告诉我你的想法。

I think 150 is still possible. I think this year crypto fundamentals have been good because we know the tokenization movements very strong. I mean, Robin Hood was a breakout product launch. I mean really one of the biggest hits and Aentic AI is good for crypto but we were in the middle of that crypto winter. I do think catalysts have come together uh and actually going to really strengthen into year end because one crypto is the best performing macro asset in the third quarter so far.

我认为 15 万(美元)仍然是可能的。我认为今年加密货币的基本面一直很好,因为我们知道代币化运动非常强劲。我的意思是,Robinhood 是一款突破性的产品发布。我是说,这真的是最大的热门产品之一,而 Aentic AI 对加密货币有利,但我们当时正处于加密寒冬的中间。我确实认为催化剂已经汇聚在一起,并且实际上将在年底前真正走强,因为到目前为止,加密货币是第三季度表现最好的宏观资产。

So I think September and the fourth quarter there's going to be institutional allocation to crypto. The second is you know the crypto four-year cycle basically ends next month. So, I think people who've turned off crypto on their screens are going to come back. The Korean investor, which was really big in crypto, you know, they rotated into AI early this year, but we're already seeing volumes pick up in Courier, so they're rotating back into crypto.

所以我认为九月和第四季度将出现机构对加密货币的配置。第二点是,你知道加密货币的四年周期基本上在下个月结束。所以,我认为那些在屏幕上关闭了加密货币的人将会回来。韩国投资者在加密货币领域曾经非常庞大,你知道,他们今年初转向了人工智能,但我们已经看到 Courier 中的交易量开始上升,所以他们正在重新转向加密货币。

And the final is if Clarity Act passes, which could happen this year, and if it does, I think, you know, Bitcoin and Ethereum have a huge fourth quarter.

最后一点是,如果《清晰法案》通过,这可能会在今年发生,如果它通过了,我认为,你知道,比特币和以太坊将迎来巨大的第四季度。

So, is crypto winner over? and the huge third and fourth quarter, does it make up for what we've seen over the last year and declines in Bitcoin?

那么,加密货币是否已经触底反弹?巨大的第三和第四季度是否能弥补我们过去一年所看到的以及比特币的下跌?

Yeah, I I think uh it's been a very shallow crypto winner. Um but there was a massive amount of deleveraging like October was a big step down and then earlier this year twice. So I I think very few people own crypto. That's why I think you know Bitcoin could easily you know be in the six figures.

是的,我认为这是一个非常浅层的加密货币底部。但是发生了大规模的去杠杆化,比如十月是一个大的下降步骤,然后今年早些时候两次。所以我认为很少有人持有加密货币。这就是为什么我认为你知道比特币很容易就能达到六位数。

You you were at 150 at one point on on Bitcoin. you you haven't abandoned those types of numbers or or even I don't know higher than that even

你曾经在比特币上提到过 15 万这个数字。你没有放弃这些类型的数字,或者甚至我不知道比那更高的数字吗?

I think 150 is still possible that's because the S&P also has a lot of upside into year end

我认为 15 万仍然是可能的,那是因为标普 500 指数到年底也有很大的上涨空间。

and crypto fundamentals are surging as update Salana processed an all-time high of 5.2 2 billion nonvote transactions in August, largest ever. The SEC today proposing even more new rules to support the use of crypto technology. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins says this proposal would streamline and modernize the commission's rules to reflect transfer agents current processes and operations including the use of electronic communications and blockchain technology in connection with securities offerings and the transfer of shares.

加密货币基本面正在激增,Solana 在八月处理了创纪录的 52.2 亿笔非投票交易,这是有史以来最大的。美国证券交易委员会(SEC)今天提议制定更多新规则以支持加密货币技术的使用。SEC 主席保罗·阿特金斯表示,这项提案将简化和现代化委员会的规则,以反映过户代理当前的流程和操作,包括在与证券发行和股份转让相关的电子通信和区块链技术的使用。

We've made huge progress. I think I promised a a new day at the SEC um when I came aboard and we have. We've pivoted from the old practice of regulation through enforcement and the opakeness of the agency as it for example with crypto as you mentioned that was job one to uh to focus on that and so basically we're instituting a strategy that I'm calling our act strategy advance clarify and transform so advance meaning modernization of our approach so rather than fending off new innovative types of uh technologies were embracing them.

我们取得了巨大进展。我想我在加入 SEC(美国证券交易委员会)时曾承诺过会迎来新的一天,而我们也确实做到了。我们已经从过去通过执法进行监管以及机构不透明的做法中转变过来,正如你提到的那样,加密资产曾是首要任务,现在我们将其作为重点。因此,我们基本上正在推行一种我称之为“ACT”的策略:推进、明确和转型。“推进”意味着我们方法的现代化,因此我们不再抵御新型创新技术,而是拥抱它们。

If there are no rate cuts later this month and Clarity Act passes Senate in September, prepare for a huge rally. The cat is out of the bag, my friends. Black Rockck still recommending Bitcoin as a hedge against the exploding US debt. Guys, smash the like button if you're getting value in today's video. You cannot capture the full upside if you're sitting on the sidelines. Stay invested. I expect the rest of this year to be volatile, but it is very likely that the bottom of $58,000 is in and Bitcoin grinds higher into end of year.

如果本月晚些时候没有降息,且《Clarity Act》(清晰法案)在九月获得参议院通过,请准备迎接一场大反弹。事情已经公开了,朋友们。BlackRock(贝莱德)仍建议将比特币作为对冲美国债务激增的工具。如果你认为今天的视频有价值,请点击点赞按钮。如果你袖手旁观,就无法捕捉到全部的上行空间。保持投资。我预计今年剩余时间市场将充满波动,但很可能 58,000 美元的底部已经形成,比特币将在年底前逐步走高。

And of course, I'm hugely bullish on 2027 and beyond. And I love hearing the experts explain why it's smart to be bullish on Bitcoin over the next two to three years. Macro expert and investment strategist Lynn Alden explains why she is bullish on Bitcoin today, saying, "I'm pretty bullish on Bitcoin with a two to threeyear view." Here she explains why. Listen to the investment thesis. I tend to agree and I'm pretty bullish on Bitcoin with say a two threeyear view.

当然,我对 2027 年及以后的前景非常看好。我也喜欢听专家解释为什么在未来两到三年内看多比特币是明智之举。宏观专家和投资策略师 Lynn Alden 解释了为什么她现在对比特币持乐观态度,她说:“对于未来两到三年的展望,我对比特币相当看好。”她在此解释了原因。听听这个投资论点。我倾向于同意,对于两到三年的展望,我对比特币相当看好。

Bitcoin also struggles with the fact that it has more competitors in any given cycle. Whenever a Bitcoin bull run, you generally get this broadening altcoin type of cycle. So capital goes everywhere else. This this time you also had the the the treasury company cycle. So the marginal dollar could go into buying a treasury company and say three times MNAV than buying Bitcoin itself. U so you get the little more of that blowoff top in some of those treasury companies than in Bitcoin itself.

比特币还面临一个困境,即在任何一个周期中它的竞争对手都更多。每当比特币牛市来临,通常会出现这种扩大化的山寨币周期。因此资金流向其他地方。这次还有 Treasury 公司周期。所以边际美元可能用于购买 Treasury 公司,其价格可能是 MNAV 的三倍,而不是直接购买比特币本身。因此,在这些 Treasury 公司中出现的小幅泡沫顶部比比特币本身更明显。

You have more of that kind of rounded top. Uh and so you know for a variety of reasons Bitcoin was muted. Um but I I think you know the fast money's out. You know, also Bitcoin, unlike gold for a while, was considered the fastest horse. And when AI came around, the type of money that was in Bitcoin was somewhat different than gold in the sense that no one really considers gold the fastest horse. Gold's kind of like the slowest steady horse.

你有更多那种圆顶形态。嗯,所以你知道由于各种原因,比特币的表现较为平淡。嗯,但我认为快速资金已经离场。你知道吗,比特币与黄金不同,一度被认为是跑得最快的马。而当 AI 出现时,流入比特币的资金类型与黄金有所不同,因为没有人真正认为黄金是最快的马。黄金更像是跑得最慢但稳定的马。

So, if you were in Bitcoin as the fastest horse and then you have, you know, Nvidia or RAM stocks like soaring, uh, some percentage of those will say, well, that's the fastest horse now. I'm an AI trader now, right? So, so money goes elsewhere. Uh, Bitcoin kind of matures to being somewhere between early Bitcoin and current gold, meaning it's not as explosive as Bitcoin was. It was smaller, but it's not as, you know, large and liquid as gold.

所以,如果你最初是比特币这个‘最快赛马’的投资者,后来看到英伟达或内存条股票飙升,你可能会想:‘现在最快的赛马是这个了。我成了 AI 交易员了,对吧?’于是资金流向其他地方。比特币逐渐成熟,其地位介于早期比特币和当前黄金之间,意味着它不再像比特币那样具有爆发力,规模较小,但也不如黄金那样庞大且具有高流动性。

And so, that's it's kind of changing over gradually over time the type of investors that interested in it. Uh on the other hand, you have new buyers coming in saying, "Oh, I can actually hold an ETF now or I can hold a treasury company now." Uh or it's liquid enough in gene

因此,随着时间的推移,对其感兴趣的投资者类型也在逐渐发生变化。另一方面,新的买家涌入,表示:‘哦,我现在可以持有 ETF 了,或者我可以持有国债公司了。’它在基因(gene)方面也有足够的流动性。

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