美国加密监管法案Clarity Act面临中期选举变数

The crypto industry is pulling out all the stops in a last ditch effort to get its biggest legislative bet, the Clarity Act, across the finish line in 2026. Yeah, the Senate missed its opportunity to pass the comprehensive crypto rule book before its August recess, and lawmakers are headed back to Washington to make a final push before the midterms in November. I personally am a bit pessimistic about the Clarity Act being passed.

I hate to say that I should be manifesting more positive energy. But I think history would tell you that leading into the midterms, you don't often pass legislation of this magnitude, especially legislation that, frankly, I think a lot of members of Congress don't fully understand still. Clarity includes a slate of guidelines for crypto like SEC and CFTC oversight, registration requirements and anti-money laundering protections.

And the fate of the legislation was in focus for lawmakers and industry leaders at the 2026 Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in August. We negotiated literally all year with the Democrats trying to get a bill that could get 60 votes to move forward on the floor of the Senate. And there were just constant demands for change. We accommodated a lot of them. So we got down to finally getting the bill out of committee, which in itself was a Herculean effort.

There are two major roadblocks senators have to clear before they can take the bill to a full floor vote, a compromise on rewards that stablecoin issuers can offer, and ethics rules for public officials. The biggest sticking point is President Trump. The Democrats want to hold his feet to the fire. Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego, one of only two Democrats who voted yes to advance the Clarity Act out of the Senate Banking Committee in May, is heavily involved in high stakes negotiations regarding ethics provisions.

I still think there's a chance to do it. I think there needs to be want on the other side to actually compromise. I think the president wants this to pass and still have all the power to do whatever he wants, unconstrained, but still say that there is somewhat of a constraint which I guess in theory is good for him, but it still doesn't get you 60 votes. Attention is now turning to September 15th. That's when Senate Majority Leader John Thune scheduled a critical procedural vote on clarity.

If it passes, it could pave the way for a full floor vote. There's a lot of pieces that have to come together, but I'm very optimistic that it can still get done. And here at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, some of the biggest names in crypto are saying we don't necessarily need legislation in order to continue to regulate effectively and innovate. I think we've already seen some contingency planning. You know, CFTC and SEC have been talking publicly and openly about some of the things that can be done from a rule making perspective.

Not perfect, but progress nonetheless. What we need to do is use the SEC and the CFTC that we have today, who are constantly focused on making rules and developing standards and frameworks in a way that we've never seen in SEC and CFTC do when it comes to crypto, we need to use this two years time to make that really sing so that we can actually go into any whoever becomes president in the next election, whenever administration takes over.

We have all of this like bulletproof work that we've done to show not only is it successful, but it is advantageous for us to maintain this market structure that we have. While the blockchain symposium was underway, washington was hard at work pitching crypto regulation. The SEC announced its own tailored rule book for crypto, separate from clarity. We're focused on creating a clear regulatory framework for pioneers and builders like the people that are with me here.

And President Trump hosted an innovation summit attended by industry leaders and the heads of the SEC and CFTC, all making the case for how the U.S. can be the crypto capital of the world. Hosting this convening, not only with the agency leads, but also with Patrick Witt, who's really been spearheading progress on the Clarity Act from the perspective of the White House, to me, demonstrates continued momentum towards finding a path forward to grow digital asset innovation here in the United States, as well as protect American consumers.

And at this event, we heard from some unexpected voices on where the U.S. stands among countries trying to regulate crypto. US having a pro crypto regulations is important for crypto adoption and growth in the rest of the world. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao spent four months in federal prison in the U.S. after failing to maintain an effective anti-money laundering program while heading the crypto exchange. He has since been advising regions around the world on regulating digital assets, including Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates.

In October 2025, President Trump pardoned CZ. Clarity Act is just one is just one act, right? I think us now, if you look at the leadership, if you look at the senior politicians, the regulators, they're all very pro crypto. So whether this one passes or not, in my view, we're in a marathon, right? This is this is not a do or die event. If our government is at all responsible, They stop the politics and they compromise and they make a deal on the Clarity Act.

Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo disagrees. Now a board member of OKX, leading a partnership between the crypto exchange and the owner of the New York Stock Exchange. He says if Republicans and Democrats can't iron out their disagreements on the Clarity Act before the midterms, there will be serious consequences. If we don't pass the Clarity Act, it costs us internationally. Europe is ahead of us. Asia is ahead of us.

If you then factor in the midterms and if you believe there's a change of power, at least in the House, which I do believe that Democrats will win the House, then you're going to have a Democratic Congress overseeing an administration. The Trump administration, with the regulators, are making decisions under the scrutiny of a hostile Congress, and that is not a good place to be. Long term, if you're looking to deploy capital and invest in one has an established framework and another jurisdiction like the US, which may be subject to every 2 to 4 years, rapid and extreme change, that's hard to allocate capital to that latter option and that's where something like legislation that will stand the test of time, whether it's Democrat administrations, Republican administrations or something in the future, a party that doesn't even exist yet, long term legislation attracts capital because there's certainty there.

Prediction market data from Kalshi shows hopes are fading that the legislation will make it across the finish line. And while the majority of people we spoke with in Wyoming don't seem too worried about a lack of legislation for crypto, the underlying hope is that regulators will continue to push forward with rules with or without the Clarity Act.