美债收益率飙升：鲍威尔称需加息恢复央行信誉

Paul, good to have you with us. We've done quite a bit of size and scope around the bond selloff this morning. It seems to have gone global focused kind of at the longer end. What stands out to you as an interesting dynamic? Hi. Yeah good morning Anna. So Sidney, as you say, we're setting, uh, those sort of new, uh, levels in the bond market with yields rising, prices of bonds falling. So in Japan, getting to 3% for the first time in decades.

Likewise, in Australia, yields haven't been this high since 2011. And it started, of course, with the US treasuries market, where we saw a ratcheting up in the ten year yield overnight. I think the, um, the that sort of uh, that's speaks for itself in some ways. You know, there are any number of reasons why bond yields are rising from the inflation risks to the supply and demand in the market. You know, the amount of corporate issuance that we're seeing to worries about government profligacy as well.

But I think most salient in may be, is this acceptance that we're in a higher yield environment where the neutral rate is higher growth is looking relatively strong, and central banks need to have a higher interest rate in order for their policy to be restrictive, and they're starting to register that. And we're seeing that not just from the fed and from what the the comments that we heard from Walsh at Jackson Hole, but also the pressure on the likes of the Bank of Japan to to match those increases in interest rates as well.

Mhm. And would that be part of the remedy pool to, to this bond sell off. What would stop the bond sell off at this point. Yeah. So I'm I think I think that that's a good question I think yes. And in some ways uh, at least to clamp down on those, uh, inflation concerns, central banks need to get on and raise interest rates to restore their credibility, to restore faith in those longer term yields. I think, you know, the other thing that we need to see is like the governments have a plan, right?

Okay. So Scotty Benson is talking about the idea that, uh, he needs to go for growth to grow faster, to bring down the US debt. That's all very well and good. Like, let's hear let's see some substance and the same for others. And we're going to see austerity if we're going to see more spending. How is it going to be channeled in order to fuel growth, and how are they going to manage those debt loads? I think ultimately that government credibility is also going to matter.

Or if we get yields high enough, you know, people will come back in, they will look at those returns and the prospects for the bonds, you know, and start to mop them up. You get to a 6% yield on the 30 year, uh, U.S. Treasury. I'm sure there will be ample demand there as well. Huh. And what one of the asset implications of all of this. Then pull we up. Lost a number of our guests. Whether the stock's strength outlasts or manages to cope with higher yields.

I think it was one of the big brokers. Maybe JP Morgan yesterday turning more negative on the back of expectations of higher yields from from the fed. The me not so much Hannah because I think though we're in that faster, uh, growth environment because I think that, you know, we're in this sort of technological revolutionary, uh, stage of, of this cycle. I do think the higher yields, higher borrowing costs will slow down growth rate.

So we'll be a check on that, particularly for the funding for the AI build out. But I don't think that necessarily has to derail it. The only thing that would be bad is if there were a much more rapid hike in the yields. If it's slow and steady rising yields, I don't think that the market is going to worry about that too much.