两艘油轮在霍尔木兹海峡遭不明弹体袭击
Oil Supertankers Reportedly Struck by Projectiles in Hormuz
霍尔木兹海峡是核心能源通道，油轮遇袭直接冲击大宗商品供给预期并引发油价波动。关注后续制裁升级、保险费率变化及供应链中断风险。
Maresqs reported two oil supertankers were struck by unknown projectiles while exiting the Persian Gulf in the Strait Of Hormuz. Joining us with the latest is Abeer Abu Omar in Dubai. And, Abeer, we also heard from the Iranian side that they'd be open to to reentering the memorandum of understanding as I understand it. So what is the state of play right now? Yeah, Vonnie. On conditions, though, this is what we heard, of course, from the president in Iran saying that Iran is willing to go back to the MOU if The US goes back to diplomacy.
Maresqs报告称，两艘超级油轮在驶出波斯湾、通过霍尔木兹海峡时遭到不明弹体袭击。与我们连线报道最新进展的是驻迪拜记者Abeer Abu Omar。另外，Abeer，我们也从伊朗方面获悉，据我理解，他们愿意重新加入谅解备忘录（MOU）。那么目前的局势如何？是的，Vonnie。不过根据我们听到的消息，当然也是来自伊朗总统的说法，即如果美国回归外交途径，伊朗愿意重返MOU框架。
Now this follows comments from Abasajja also yesterday saying that a return to the diplomacy or a return by Iran to the table is not really far fetched if The United States were to cease its pressure campaign. And we we talk about this pressure, Vonnie. It's not just the military pressure that we saw reescalate in the region since yesterday, but it's also this economic pressure that Scott Bessent had laid out weeks ago, and that is taking effect right now.
此前，Abasajja昨天也发表评论称，如果美国停止其施压行动，伊朗重返谈判桌或恢复外交对话并非遥不可及。我们来谈谈这种施压，Vonnie。这不仅仅是自昨天以来在该地区重新升级的军事压力，还包括Scott Bessent数周前提出的经济压力，而目前这些压力正在生效。
But what you're seeing oil markets and energy markets really reacting to this morning, Brent crude and NY crude both up around 2% over the past hour or so at this point is because of those supertankers in the Strait Of Hormuz being attacked just about an hour ago. Merisks, the security maritime organization, reporting that these attacks happened onto vessels in quick succession. So you're seeing oil markets reacting to that.
但今早你看到石油市场和能源市场做出的反应，布伦特原油和纽约原油在过去一小时左右均上涨约2%，是因为大约一小时前霍尔木兹海峡的超级油轮遭到袭击。海事安全组织Merisks报告称，这些袭击是接连对船只实施的。因此，你看到的是石油市场对这一事件的反应。
And, really, this is the trend, Vonnie. Oil energy markets are not reacting to the geopolitical headlines, the back and forth between president Trump and Iran as much. They are reacting to what is physically happening in the waterway, of course. We've seen those attacks happen since the beginning of the week, the UK Navy into the early hours of the morning here in Dubai saying that a vessel was attacked by three unidentified projectiles.
事实上，这就是趋势所在，Vonnie。石油能源市场并未像人们预期的那样对地缘政治头条新闻、特朗普总统与伊朗之间的来回交锋做出强烈反应。它们主要对水道中实际发生的事件做出反应。当然，自本周初以来我们就已目睹此类袭击事件，英国海军在迪拜当地时间清晨早些时候表示，一艘船只遭到三个不明弹体的袭击。
And so the risk that is being posed on vessels and tankers in the Strait Of Hormuz is still very much there, and that is what's creating this upside in energy markets. And that is, of course, what we continue to watch out for, over the next period. This all coming as well as we're seeing some resignations and in particular, the US army secretary Dan Driscoll stepping down after repeated caches with Pete Hegseth. How will Iran view this turmoil in the United States military?
因此，霍尔木兹海峡的船只和油轮所面临的风险依然很大，而这正是推动能源市场上涨的原因。当然，这也是我们在未来一段时间内持续关注的重点。与此同时，我们也看到一些人事变动，特别是美国陆军部长Dan Driscoll在与Pete Hegseth多次冲突后辞职。伊朗将如何看待美国军队内部的这场动荡？
Yeah. It's still unclear, of course, Vonnie, what Iran's position is on this or if they're going to give any response at all. But, of course, what we know about Dan Driscoll's resignation is that it comes after disagreements. This is a Bloomberg story that we reported. Disagreement with his boss, Pete Heksef, and, of course, this follows months of disagreements within the department, months of firings, of course, and on on either personnel or on wider talks, of course.
是的。当然，目前尚不清楚伊朗对此事的立场，以及他们是否会作出任何回应。但众所周知，丹·德里斯科尔辞职的原因是存在分歧。这是我们彭博社报道的一则新闻。他与他的上司皮特·赫克塞夫存在分歧，当然，这还伴随着该部门数月来的分歧、数月的解雇行动，无论是在人事方面还是在更广泛的谈判方面。
And it's really not clear if this has to do with Iran or also wider conflicts. We reported that this had to do with Russia, Ukraine, The US munitions. Of course, when we go back to the munitions argument over the past couple of months or so, multiple news outlets, including our own Bloomberg geoeconomics team, had reported that The US might be falling short on those munitions. President Trump in his latest remarks yesterday saying that, actually, The US has elite weapons, and he didn't give any sort of credence to that argument that The US is falling short on ammunition.
而且目前尚不清楚这是否与伊朗有关，还是与更广泛的冲突有关。我们曾报道此事与俄罗斯、乌克兰以及美国弹药有关。当然，回顾过去几个月关于弹药的争论，多家新闻媒体，包括我们自己的彭博地缘经济学团队，都曾报道美国可能在弹药供应上出现短缺。特朗普总统在昨天的最新表态中表示，实际上美国拥有精英武器，他并未认可美国弹药供应不足的说法。
But he did not allude to a return to a full war with with with Iran in the region. He did say, however, or signal that the military escalation is something that we could see happen again. But, again, what we're monitoring for the time being is a possible return to diplomacy and those movements through the Strait Of Hormuz.
但他并未暗示该地区将全面恢复与伊朗的战争。然而，他确实表示或暗示军事升级可能会再次发生。但同样，我们目前监测的重点是外交关系的重新恢复，以及通过霍尔木兹海峡的相关动向。
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