地缘冲突推高油价，亚洲股市承压及日本央行加息预期升温

SHERY: THIS IS THE ASIA TRADE. THE TOP STORIES, ASIAN STOCKS SET TO FOLLOW WALL STREET LOWER AS RENEWED MIDDLE EAST HOSTILITIES BOOST OIL PRICES, REVIVING CONCERNS ABOUT INFLATION AND RATE HIKES. NVIDIA SET TO INVEST 3.5 BILLION DOLLARS IN TAIWANESE CHIPMAKER MEDIATECH. THE CEO TELLS US EXCLUSIVELY WHY IT'S NOT A CASE OF CIRCULAR AI FINANCING. ALSO, SHEEHAN SHARES IS SET TO DEBUT IN HONG KONG AND A TEST OF INVESTOR APPETITE FOR COMPANIES OUTSIDE OF THE AI SUPPLY CHAIN.

WE ARE LIVE AT THE GOLDMAN SACHS ASIA LEADERS CONFERENCE, SPEAKING EXCLUSIVELY WITH THE PERFORMAN -- WITH THE FORMER DALLAS FED CHAIRMAN. HAIDI: WE ARE WATCHING TREASURIES AND THE YEN FRONT AND CENTER. THIS IS THE PICTURE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EQUITY SESSION. WE ARE EXPECTING DOWNSIDE PRESSURE FOR ASIAN STOCKS, THE MIDDLE EAST FLAREUP. THAT IS BOOSTING OIL. THAT IS SENDING SOME OF THE RISK AVERSION AS A RESULT OF THE REDO GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS, REVIVAL OF THE INFLATION TRADE, THE PROSPECT OF FURTHER MONETARY TIGHTENING COME OF THESE EXPECTATIONS BEING LIFTED FOR THE FED AS WELL.

WE ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO THE U.S. PAYROLLS DATA FOR AUGUST TO SHOW THAT CONSISTENT STEADY MESS WITH THE LABOR MARKET. THAT WILL BE CLOSELY SCRUTINIZED. OIL PRICES UP ABOUT .8%. WE ARE SEEING THE LACKLUSTER START TO TRADING IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD. SHERY: LET'S DISCUSS WHAT HIS HEAD IN THE TRADING DAY. LET'S BRING IN MARK CRANFIELD. HAIDI HIGHLIGHTED SOME OF THE CONCERNS, INFLATION, RATE REPRICING, AND WE HAD SEEN ALREADY THE SHORT-TERM YIELD SHOOT UP AFTER KEVIN WARSH'S SPEECH IN JACKSON HOLE.

WE ARE SEEING THE 10 YEAR YIELD TOPPING THOSE LEVELS WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN MONTHS. MARK: YEAH, A PRETTY TOUGH TIME FOR FIXED INCOME TRADERS. THIS WEEK YOU HAVE TWO JAPANESE AUCTIONS, THE 10 YEAR AND THIRTY-YEAR AUCTION. WHATEVER HAPPENS IN JAPAN WILL HAVE REPERCUSSIONS ACROSS THE G10 ESPECIALLY FOR TREASURIES. GERMAN YIELDS HAVE BEEN MOVING UP PRETTY FAST AS WELL FOR THEY WILL FEED BACK INTO THAT IF THE AUCTIONS DON'T GO SO SMOOTHLY.

AT THE SAME TIME YOU HAVE PEOPLE LIKE SCOTT BESSENT PUTTING A LOT OF PRESSURE ON BANK OF JAPAN. THERE IS A G20 MEETING. WE UNDERSTAND FROM MEDIA REPORTS HE HAS HAD DISCUSSIONS DIRECTLY WITH THE JAPANESE FINANCE MINISTER AND WITH THE GOVERNOR OF THE BANK OF JAPAN AND HE'S BEEN TELLING THEM JAPAN NEEDS TO GET ON AN INTEREST HIKE -- HIKE INTEREST RATES AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. JAPAN IS VERY MUCH IN FOCUS FROM THAT POINT OF VIEW.

THAT WILL MAKE PEOPLE MORE EDGY. WILL CHINA ANTICIPATE? IT IS FITTING INTO ITSELF. IN THE BACKGROUND, KEVIN WARSH HAS RAISE THE STAKES ON THE INFLATION FRONT. HE HAS PUT IT RIGHT ON THE TABLE, SAYING IT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BE DEBATED HOTLY AT THE NEXT FOMC MEETING. HE PUT ALL THOSE THINGS TOGETHER. IT'S NOT AN EASY TIME IF YOU WANT TO BE INVOLVED IN FIXED INCOME MARKETS. YOU HAVE TO PICK YOUR SPOTS CAREFULLY. YOU MAY LIKE TO SEE THINGS SETTLE DOWN A LITTLE MORE.

IT BRINGS THE JAPANESE CURRENCY INTO PLAY AS WELL. IT IS SITTING CLOSE TO 160 AGAIN. ALL OF THOSE THINGS TOGETHER WILL MAKE PEOPLE VERY EDGY. IF YOU'RE EDGY AND THE FIXED INCOME MARKET, THEY CAN EASILY SPILL OVER INTO THE EQUITY SPACE. SHERY: IT'S REALLY NOT THAT SURPRISING, RIGHT, WE HAVE SEEN FISCAL CONCERNS IN JAPAN. WE NOW HAVE THE ADMINISTRATION RELEASING A RECORD DEFENSE BUDGET AS WELL. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE YEN, WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE 160 LEVEL AS A SORT OF INTERVENTION RISK LEVEL.

AT THE SAME TIME, HOW MUCH IS IT ABOUT VOLATILITY MANAGEMENT AT THIS POINT? BECAUSE OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS, REVERSING THAT TREND OF WEAKNESS MIGHT BE HARD. MARK: IT IS PRETTY UNLIKELY WE WILL SEE INTERVENTION AHEAD OF THE BANK OF JAPAN MEETING. IF YOU THINK OF WHERE WE ARE IT'S ONLY A COUPLE MORE WEEKS UNTIL THE BANK OF JAPAN MEET. PRICING IS PRETTY STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF AN INTEREST RATE HIKE. AT THAT MEETING. ALMOST A MAJORITY OF THE PEOPLE NOW IN THE MARKET THINK WE ARE 25 BASIS POINT HIKE.

WE HAVE ONE BANK OF JAPAN SPEAKER THIS WEEK, ANOTHER TO FOLLOW BEFORE WE GET TO THE DECISION. WE HAVE JAPANESE AUCTIONS ALONG THE WAY AS WELL. WE ARE GETTING CONTRIBUTIONS FROM PEOPLE OUTSIDE OF JAPAN TELLING THEM WHAT TO DO. FOR THE JAPANESE AUTHORITIES TO COME AND SUPPORT THE YEN AT THIS TIME WITH SO MANY THINGS AHEAD BEFORE THE CENTRAL BANK MEETING, IT WOULD BE PRETTY UNLIKELY UNLESS THERE IS AN UNEXPECTED JUMP HIGHER.

IF THE DOLLAR YEN WAS TO SUDDENLY JUMP THREE OR FOUR FIGURES IN ONE DAY, THEY MIGHT DO SOMETHING, BUT AS LONG AS THE MARK STAYS RELATIVELY ORDERLY YOU ARE NOT LIKELY TO SEE THEM. THEY PROBABLY WANT TO SEE HOW THE MARKET RESPONSE OF THE BANK OF JAPAN DOES MOVE IN SEPTEMBER. WILL THE YEN APPRECIATES. IF IT DOESN'T, MAYBE THE AUTHORITIES HAVE TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. IF YOU THINK JUST LAST WEEK THEY REPORTED THEIR LATEST INTERVENTION WAS THE BIGGEST ON RECORD, YET THEY DON'T HAVE A GREAT DEAL TO SHOW FROM IT.

IT JUST TELLS YOU TAKING ON THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET IS A VERY DIFFICULT JOB. IT IS A HUGE MULTITRILLION DOLLAR MARKET. EVEN IF YOU ARE SELLING BILLIONS OF DOLLARS INTO THAT MARKET YOU STILL HAVE A DIFFICULT JOB TO CHANGE IT AROUND, NO MATTER WHAT PEOPLE ARE TELLING YOU. IN THE END IT GOES BACK TO FUNDAMENTALS. ARE INTEREST RATES GOING UP QUICKLY ENOUGH? IS THE DIFFERENTIAL WITH THE WAS CURVE WIDE ENOUGH? IF THOSE THINGS DON'T FALL INTO PLACE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TURN THE YEN AROUND.

HAIDI: MARK CRANFIELD WHAT THE FINAL WORD ON THE YEN FOR TODAY. LET'S ALSO LOOK AT WHAT WE ARE WATCHING, WHICH IS THE SITUATION WHEN IT COMES TO ELEVATED OIL PRICES. CRUDE PUSHING HIGHER, THE BIGGEST GAIN IN THREE WEEKS ON THE MONDAY SESSION, FRESH HOSTILITIES RAISING CONCERNS ABOUT DISRUPTIONS BEING PROLONG FOR ENERGY FLOWS. THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ NOW AGAIN IN QUESTION DESPITE OF COURSE SEEING SOME VESSELS AND SOME DELIVERIES BEING ABLE TO PASS THROUGH.

AT THE MOMENT WE ARE SEEING UPSIDE OF CLOSE TO 3% AT LAST TRADE FOR BRENT CRUDE. WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE UPLIFT WHEN IT COMES TO THE ENERGY HEAVY GAUGES LIKE AUSTRALIA WHEN WE COME ONLINE. PRESIDENT DISTRICT -- PRESIDENT TRUMP DISMISSED THESE CONCERNS THE CONFLICT IN IRAN IS DREADING U.S. FIREPOWER, CALLING IT A RELATIVELY LITTLE WAR. REMARKS COME AS THE TWO SIDES RESUME LITERARY STRIKES AFTER WEEKS OF RELATIVE CALM. LET'S GET MORE WITH DEREK WAR BANK.

THE NARRATIVE WAS THE U.S. HAS BEEN BACKED INTO THIS POSITION OF NOT BEEN ABLE TO CONTINUE TO ESCALATE MILITARILY BECAUSE OF THE DEPLETION OF ITS WEAPONRY. IS THIS WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS TRYING TO PUSH BACK ON? DEREK: THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT. THE PRESIDENT'S COMMENTS ABOUT THE "LITTLE WAR" ARE GOING TO REVERBERATE AROUND THE GLOBE, NO QUESTION. THE WAY THAT IS FRAMED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE KIND OF FRUSTRATIONS WE ARE SEEING FROM THIS WHITE HOUSE BECAUSE THEY'VE BEEN SORT OF BOXED IN.

ON A CONFLICT THEY CANNOT QUITE FIGURE OUT HOW TO END ON FAVORABLE TERMS. THERE IS NO SUGGESTION THERE ARE NEGOTIATIONS ONGOING OR CLOSE. THE U.S. AND IRAN ARE BOTH STUCK ON WHAT TO DO OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THE U.S. WANTED TO BE AN OPEN SHIPPING LINE, IRAN WANTED TO BE CONTROLLED. I RAN ONCE THE BLOCKADE LIFTED, THE U.S. IS NOT GOING TO DO THAT UNTIL ETC., ETC. THAT IS WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW. WE ARE WALKING INTO THIS WEEK IN UNITED STATES NOW SEEING STRIKES THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JULY.

THAT IS AN ADDITIONAL ESCALATION. YOU ARE ALSO SEEING SOME MOVES FROM SCOTT BESSENT THE U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY TALKING ABOUT THIS ECONOMIC PRESSURE CAMPAIGN THE WHITE HOUSE REALLY WANTS TO PIVOT INTO, BUT SO FAR HAS NOT REALLY COME OUT AND LANDED THE THING THAT WOULD BE EQUIVALENT TO THE RHETORIC. LAST WEEK THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT THIS AS AN ECONOMIC D-DAY, WE HAVE HEARD A LOT OF THREATS. WE HAVEN'T REALLY SEEN A LOT OF WHAT THAT LOOKS LIKE EXACTLY.

G20 FINANCE MINISTERS MEETING IN NORTH CAROLINA TO TALK SOME OF THAT THROUGH. UNDOUBTABLY THAT WILL BE ON THE MENU. WE ARE HEARING FROM SOME FINANCE MINISTERS SAYING THE MESSAGE THEY ARE GOING TO BE GIVING THE UNITED STATES IS THE U.S. METHODS OF TARIFFS, OF TRADE WARS COME OF PICKING F