AI算力供应链：HBM产能、先进封装与关键零部件紧缺动态汇总
Just some TLDR news I found interesting:
Just some TLDR news I found interesting:
一些我觉得有趣的TLDR新闻：
1. $GOOGL (missed this) also invested in Mediatek alongside $NVDA for their $3.9B raise.
1. $GOOGL（错过了这条）也与$NVDA一起投资了联发科，为其39亿美元的融资提供支持。
Google/Nvidia are goats with investments you look at $SPCX to Anthropic.
谷歌和英伟达真是神操作，看看它们对Anthropic的投资就知道了，再看看$SPCX。
2. Samsung Electro-Mechanics discloses $778.9M MLCC deal / $CAPA (new MLCC ETF) also gives exposure now for folks without Korea/Japan/Taiwan market access.
2. 三星电机披露了一笔7.789亿美元的MLCC交易 / $CAPA（新的MLCC ETF）也为那些无法进入韩国/日本/台湾市场的人提供了 exposure。
But thing is more accelerators x MLCCs per accelerator might indicate a more future extreme bottleneck than people expect.
但问题是，每个加速器使用的加速器和MLCC数量增加，可能意味着比人们预期的更极端的未来瓶颈。
3. China channel checks state: planetary roller screws, 6D force sensors, and dexterous hands resist domestic substitution.
3. 中国渠道调查现状：行星滚柱丝杠、6D力传感器和灵巧手难以实现国产替代。
Then planetary roller screw as the top with lowest domestic substitution rate. eg. $SHA0.DE for planetary. Just interesting to hear moats I guess.
然后行星滚柱丝杠的国产替代率最低。例如，$SHA0.DE用于行星滚柱丝杠。听起来挺有意思的，大概是护城河吧。
4. Samsung reportedly has ~70% of memory production capacity committed through 2031 / commodity DRAM has also fallen into short supply - Seoul Economic Daily. TrendForce expects server DRAM contract prices to rise 13-18% QoQ in 3Q26
4. 据报道，三星的内存产能已承诺至2031年，占比约70% / 大宗商品DRAM也出现供应短缺 - 《首尔经济日报》。TrendForce预计，2026年第三季度服务器DRAM合同价格将环比上涨13-18%。
SK Hynix also publicly stated the memory shortage lasts through 2030.
SK海力士也公开表示，内存短缺将持续到2030年。
5. $CXMT has begun producing HBM3E in small quantities and reportedly claimed mass production of LPDDR6. Implications are even more positive for legacy DRAM shortages.
5. $CXMT已开始小批量生产HBM3E，并据报道声称实现了LPDDR6的大规模生产。这对传统DRAM短缺的影响更加积极。
6. Cisco at SEMICON Taiwan said CPO is ready for mass deployment; pluggable modules will remain the market mainstay.
6. 思科在台湾半导体展上表示，CPO已准备好大规模部署；可插拔模块仍将是市场主流。
$MRVL also said customers are actively planning scale-up optics deployments as early as 2027
$MRVL也表示，客户正积极规划最早于2027年部署规模化光互连方案。
7. Wingtech -> bought Nexperia -> Netherlands effectively removed Wingtech’s control -> Wingtech is fighting back through Chinese courts.
7. 闻泰科技 -> 收购安世半导体 -> 荷兰实际上剥夺了闻泰科技的控制权 -> 闻泰科技正在通过中国法院反击。
But Nexperia got $300m of their assets frozen.
但安世半导体的3亿美元资产被冻结。
More geopolitical drama of course, always entertaining. $AAPl also explicitly accused OpenAI of destroying crucial evidence... (for more fun)
当然还有更多的地缘政治戏剧性事件，总是很有趣。$AAPl还明确指控OpenAI销毁关键证据……（为了更多乐趣）
8. Not much description around ASP hikes regarding SOI substrates $SOI, but they now have 10+ customers involved with LTAs, $200m revenue described as a "floor", comments about customers more concerned about obtaining wafers than where they are manufactured.
8. 关于SOI衬底$SOI的ASP涨价描述不多，但他们现在有10多家客户参与了长期协议(LTA)，2亿美元的收入被称为“底线”，评论称客户更关心的是获得晶圆，而不是在哪里制造。
So basically moving into capacity reservation now stages as silicon photonics takes off in 2027.
所以基本上随着硅光子技术在2027年起飞，现在进入了产能预订阶段。
9. Some channel checks put lead times for high power MOSFETs and large area TVS diodes as high as ~52 weeks. ($STM also reportedly implemented its 3rd 2026 price increase on August 23)
9. 一些渠道调查显示，高功率MOSFET和大面积TVS二极管的交货期高达约52周。（据报道，$STM也在8月23日实施了其2026年的第3次涨价）
10. Traditional packaging capacity could face a deficit exceeding 20% by 2027" with "wire bonding equipment" emerging as the primary bottleneck", covered this earlier this week with beneficiaries like
10. 传统封装产能到2027年可能面临超过20%的缺口，“引线键合设备”成为主要瓶颈”，本周早些时候我报道过受益者如
11. Claims that all six major ABF suppliers are booked for 2026, with 12-14 month lead times and some suppliers auctioning remaining capacity; $NVDA, $AMD and hyperscalers locking ABF capacity through 2028 and pushing suppliers to plan 2029–30 expansions.
11. 声称所有六大 ABF 供应商的产能已预订至 2026 年，交货周期为 12-14 个月，部分供应商正在拍卖剩余产能；$NVDA、$AMD 和超大规模云厂商锁定 ABF 产能直至 2028 年，并推动供应商规划 2029–30 年的扩产计划。
Names like Kinsus (3189), Unimicron (3037), Nan Ya PCB (8046), Ibiden (4062), etc are all probably happy.
像 Kinsus (3189)、Unimicron (3037)、Nan Ya PCB (8046)、Ibiden (4062) 等名字的公司大概都很开心。
12. CCL leading laminated board products increased by another 10%-20%, 7th price hike this year (eg. Kingboard). Industry estimates put the HVLP4 copper-foil shortage at ~48% in 2026 / 43% in 2027, while Low-Dk/T-Glass lead times have stretched beyond 30 weeks.
12. CCL 领先的层压板产品再次涨价 10%-20%，这是今年的第 7 次涨价（例如 Kingboard）。行业估计 HVLP4 铜箔在 2026 年的短缺率约为 48%，2027 年为 43%，而 Low-Dk/T-Glass 的交货周期已延长至超过 30 周。
13. "(GaAs) substrate materials and gallium epitaxial source materials are also facing another round of price increases in the third quarter of 2026, reportedly 5 to 6 times higher than at the early stage of the restrictions."
13. "(GaAs) 衬底材料和镓外延源材料也将在 2026 年第三季度面临另一轮涨价，据报道涨幅是限制初期水平的 5 到 6 倍。"
"China has recently eased some substrate export controls" but there's a "severe InP substrate shortage" per digitimes. Just some $AXTI related updates
"中国最近放宽了部分衬底的出口管制"，但据 digitimes 报道存在"严重的 InP 衬底短缺"。仅是一些与 $AXTI 相关的更新。
14. $AMD and $AVGO reportedly booked most of Powertech's planned FOPLP capacity ahead of mid-2027 mass production
14. 据报道，$AMD 和 $AVGO 在 2027 年中量产之前，已预订了 Powertech 大部分计划的 FOPLP 产能。
15. $INTC considering $INTC foundry for HBM4E base dies. But $SKHY responded directly that "some of the content is different from the facts".
15. $INTC 考虑使用 $INTC 代工厂生产 HBM4E 基片。但 $SKHY 直接回应称"部分内容与事实不符"。
16. "OpenAI Hoarding Tens Of Thousands Of $AAPL Mac mini and Mac Studio" for reinforcement learning. Anthropic has been renting mac mini units from $AMZN as well. Kinda sad Tim Cook retired, but dude had a goated run.
16. "OpenAI 囤积数万台 $AAPL Mac mini 和 Mac Studio"用于强化学习。Anthropic 也在从 $AMZN 租赁 mac mini 设备。Tim Cook 退休有点令人伤感，但他确实有过一段传奇般的辉煌历程。
Just random interesting notes
只是些随机的有趣笔记
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力