宏观波动下AI算力资本开支与估值分析
Macro has clearly cut high beta AI valuations over the past few months. But I tr…
Macro has clearly cut high beta AI valuations over the past few months. But I try to stay focused on fundamentals.
宏观层面在过去几个月明显削减了高贝塔值AI估值的权重。但我努力专注于基本面。
If you're curious about my take though:
不过，如果你对我的观点感兴趣：
We're seeing record visibility with - memory (2031), photonics (2029-2030), etc LTAs - $NBIS, solana:5aQcoaSyy7fnhvpRHasBUAMH2nL5tTjVrmFw6BeGmoon, etc. massive demand imbalance for compute despite capex spend. - combined with record projections ( $NVDA 70% growth 2027, $SMCI $60B+ new server orders, etc).
我们看到了创纪录的能见度，包括 - 长期协议（LTA）：内存（至2031年）、光子学（2029-2030年）等 - $NBIS、Solana地址:5aQcoaSyy7fnhvpRHasBUAMH2nL5tTjVrmFw6BeGmoon 等，尽管资本支出巨大，但计算需求仍存在巨大的供需失衡。 - 结合创纪录的预测（$NVDA 2027年增长70%，$SMCI新增服务器订单超600亿美元等）。
vs.
对比
uncomfortable macro where: - Warsh said the Fed has "more work to do" if underlying inflation isn't clearly returning to 2%. - July PCE came in at 3.7% Y/Y - July jobs report payrolls fell by 23k with unemployment at 4.1% -10Y Treasury high/ 30Y highest since 2007 - Iran tensions continuing - Japan Yen weakened to 160/ 2 rate hikes in Korea
令人不安的宏观环境，其中： - 沃什表示，如果潜在通胀没有明确回到2%，美联储还有“更多工作要做”。 - 7月PCE同比上涨3.7% - 7月就业报告显示非农就业减少2.3万人，失业率为4.1% - 10年期国债收益率走高/30年期为2007年以来最高 - 伊朗紧张局势持续 - 日元走弱至160/2，韩国加息两次
And with rate 40/60 in favor of 25BPS near-term hikes.
并且利率方面，40%的概率倾向于近期加息25个基点。
There's definitely implications on financing + too many third/fourth order effects for me to personally map.
这肯定会对融资产生影响，以及太多第三/第四阶效应让我个人难以完全梳理。
I'm not a macro expert but my take is:
我不是宏观专家，但我的看法是：
The AI buildout will continue w/ $1.3T+ capex poured upstream expected next year, flowing through many bottlenecks and chokepoints.
AI基础设施建设将继续推进，预计明年上游将投入超过1.3万亿美元的资本支出，流经许多瓶颈和关键节点。
While markets chopped off forward valuations and rotated toward currently profitable/defensive companies.
虽然市场切断了远期估值，并转向目前盈利/防御性公司。
I don't know what's going to happen, especially since rate hike odds are almost a coinflip, and Trump posts can change sentiment overnight.
我不知道会发生什么，尤其是因为加息的可能性几乎是一半对一半，而且特朗普的帖子可以一夜之间改变情绪。
As long as I don't see indicators of hyperscalers cutting capex or demand wavering.
只要我没有看到超大规模客户削减资本支出或需求动摇的迹象。
I'm staying long despite macro volatility, since I want ownership of the names controlling the future of the AI buildout.
尽管宏观波动，我仍然保持多头头寸，因为我希望拥有控制AI基础设施建设未来的公司的股份。
And if there's any indicators of better macro climates, high beta are typically the fastest to recover.
如果有任何迹象表明宏观气候好转，高贝塔值股票通常恢复得最快。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力