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预测市场周度数据：Kalshi与Polymarket合约量达112.6亿美元

Prediction Markets Top $11B in Contract Volume as Sports, Combos Drive Kalshi Growth

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提供加密衍生品市场核心平台的最新结构性资金数据，清晰展示Kalshi对Polymarket的市场份额挤压趋势及具体驱动品类，适合关注预测市场生态与资金流向的研究者参考。

Prediction markets had another strong week from Aug. 24-30, with activity led by Kalshi on sports and continued interest in macroeconomic and esports markets on Polymarket Global.

预测市场在8月24日至30日这一周再次表现强劲，Kalshi在体育领域的活动引领潮流，Polymarket Global上的宏观经济和电竞市场也持续受到关注。

Combined contract volume across Kalshi and Polymarket Global reached $11.26 billion, up 9.3% week over week from $10.30 billion the previous week. The two platforms generated $3.40 billion in combined volume, a modest 0.5% increase.

Kalshi和Polymarket Global的合约总交易量达到112.6亿美元，较前一周的103.0亿美元环比增长9.3%。这两个平台产生的总成交量为34.0亿美元，小幅增长0.5%。

The number of completed trades moved in the opposite direction, falling 2.9% to 75.21 million.

已完成交易数量则呈现相反趋势，下降2.9%，至7521万笔。

Kalshi was responsible for most of the week’s growth. The platform crossed $10 billion in weekly contract volume for the first time in August, recording $10.17 billion in contract volume, up 12.2% WoW. It also generated $2.83 billion in volume, up 3.3%.

Kalshi是本周增长的主要贡献者。该平台在8月份首次突破每周100亿美元的合约交易量大关，录得101.7亿美元的合约交易量，环比增长12.2%。其产生的成交量也为28.3亿美元，环比增长3.3%。

That gave Kalshi 90.3% of combined contract volume across the two platforms.

这使得Kalshi占据了两个平台合约总交易量的90.3%。

Polymarket Global, meanwhile, recorded $1.09 billion in contract volume, down 11.9% week over week, and $561.91 million in volume, down 11.4%.

与此同时，Polymarket Global的合约交易量录得10.9亿美元，环比下降11.9%；成交量为5.6191亿美元，环比下降11.4%。

Polymarket US recorded $742.08 million in contract volume from Aug. 24-29. Aug. 30 data was still pending from the platform’s official Daily Market Reports.

Polymarket US在8月24日至29日期间录得7.4208亿美元的合约交易量。8月30日的数据仍待该平台官方每日市场报告发布。

Weekly contract volume reaches $11.26 billion

每周合约交易量达到112.6亿美元

MetricKalshiPolymarket GlobalPolymarket USCombined (K + PMG)
Contract Volume$10,169,908,020+12.2% WoW$1,086,735,664-11.9% WoW$742,080,305*Partial 6/7 reports$11,256,643,684+9.3% WoW
Execution USD Volume$2,834,314,916+3.3% WoW$561,911,830-11.4% WoWUnavailable$3,396,226,746+0.5% WoW
Total Transactions63,369,113-1.2% WoW11,853,087-11.3% WoWUnavailable75,222,200-2.9% WoW
Volume Share90.3%+2.3 pts WoW9.7%-2.3 pts WoWExcluded100.0%
Open Interest (Snapshot)787,106,260230,217,704117,037,747Not additive
指标KalshiPolymarket GlobalPolymarket US合计 (K + PMG)
合约交易量$10,169,908,020+12.2% WoW$1,086,735,664-11.9% WoW$742,080,305*部分6/7份报告$11,256,643,684+9.3% WoW
执行美元成交量$2,834,314,916+3.3% WoW$561,911,830-11.4% WoW不可用$3,396,226,746+0.5% WoW
总交易笔数63,369,113-1.2% WoW11,853,087-11.3% WoW不可用75,222,200-2.9% WoW
成交量份额90.3%+2.3 pts WoW9.7%-2.3 pts WoW排除100.0%
未平仓合约（快照）787,106,260230,217,704117,037,747不可加总

*Polymarket US contract volume reflects partial 6/7 official Daily Market Reports (August 24–29; August 30 pending) and is excluded from combined totals due to metric definition differences.

*Polymarket US的合约交易量反映了部分6/7份官方每日市场报告（8月24日至29日；8月30日待定），由于指标定义差异，被排除在合计总数之外。

Kalshi accounts for 88.6% of $3.07 billion in sports volume

Kalshi占30.7亿美元体育类成交量的88.6%

CategoryKalshiPolymarket GlobalCombined (K + PMG)
Other / Uncategorized$5,344,799,13692.4% share$440,397,8377.6% share$5,785,196,973
Sports$2,724,145,85988.6% share$348,841,18611.4% share$3,072,987,046
Crypto$1,859,135,32189.9% share$208,348,98110.1% share$2,067,484,302
Economics / Finance$178,584,62485.7% share$29,786,20314.3% share$208,370,827
Politics$58,991,33952.4% share$53,594,57047.6% share$112,585,910
Culture / Entertainment$4,251,74042.4% share$5,766,88657.6% share$10,018,627
类别KalshiPolymarket Global合计 (K + PMG)
其他/未分类$5,344,799,13692.4% 份额$440,397,8377.6% 份额$5,785,196,973
体育$2,724,145,85988.6% 份额$348,841,18611.4% 份额$3,072,987,046
加密货币$1,859,135,32189.9% 份额$208,348,98110.1% 份额$2,067,484,302
经济/金融$178,584,62485.7% 份额$29,786,20314.3% 份额$208,370,827
政治$58,991,33952.4% 份额$53,594,57047.6% 份额$112,585,910
文化/娱乐$4,251,74042.4% 份额$5,766,88657.6% 份额$10,018,627

Kalshi: PGA Tour Championship, combos, and football is back

Kalshi：PGA巡回赛锦标赛、组合产品及橄榄球回归

Kalshi’s record-setting week was driven primarily by sports markets and increasingly popular multi-leg structured products.

Kalshi 创下纪录的一周主要由体育市场和日益流行的多腿结构化产品推动。

  • TOUR Championship Winner: The PGA TOUR Championship winner market was the single biggest market across the platforms this week. It settled after generating $91.19 million in contract volume.
  • Multi-leg combo volume: Combo markets were another major source of activity for Kalshi. A multi-game MLB combo involving Miami, Detroit, Washington, Texas, Los Angeles (Angels) and Chicago (Cubs) generated $36.80 million in contract volume. Newly listed combos covering Mexican Liga MX soccer, MLB matchups, and European soccer also performed well, occupying four of Kalshi’s top 10 market slots. Overall, Kalshi’s combo volume increased 14.2% week over week to $1.29 billion in contract volume.
  • NFL preseason surge: The return of football drove more trading across NFL markets. The matchup between Seattle and Tennessee generated $20.15 million in contract volume, while the Rams vs. the Chargers reached $17.63 million in contract volume.
  • College football markets saw big action too. Memphis vs. UNLV drew $17.78 million in contract volume, while North Carolina vs. TCU attracted $17.67 million in contract volume.
  • Political markets were quieter by comparison, but Kalshi’s 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee market still grew 129.3% week over week to $14.93 million in contract volume amid a broader shakeup in the 2028 Democratic field.
  • 巡回赛锦标赛冠军：本周该平台最大的单一市场是 PGA 巡回赛锦标赛冠军市场，在产生 9119 万美元合约交易量后结算。
  • 多腿组合交易量：组合市场是 Kalshi 另一个主要的活动来源。一个涉及迈阿密、底特律、华盛顿、德克萨斯、洛杉矶（天使队）和芝加哥（小熊队）的多场 MLB 组合产生了 3680 万美元的合约交易量。新上市的涵盖墨西哥 Liga MX 足球、MLB 对决和欧洲足球的组合也表现良好，占据了 Kalshi 前十大市场中的四个席位。总体而言，Kalshi 的组合交易量环比增长 14.2%，达到 12.9 亿美元的合约交易量。
  • NFL 季前赛激增：橄榄球的回归推动了 NFL 市场的更多交易。西雅图与田纳西的对决产生了 2015 万美元的合约交易量，而公羊队对阵闪电队的合约交易量达到 1763 万美元。
  • 大学橄榄球市场也出现了大量交易。孟菲斯对阵 UNLV 吸引了 1778 万美元的合约交易量，而北卡罗来纳对阵 TCU 吸引了 1767 万美元的合约交易量。
  • 相比之下，政治市场较为平静，但在 2028 年民主党候选人格局整体动荡的背景下，Kalshi 的 2028 年民主党总统提名者市场仍环比增长 129.3%，达到 1493 万美元的合约交易量。

Polymarket Global: Fed rate decision, Brazilian election

Polymarket Global：美联储利率决议、巴西选举

Polymarket Global had a noticeably different mix of activity, with macroeconomic markets and competitive gaming standing out.

Polymarket Global 的活动构成明显不同，宏观经济市场和电子竞技尤为突出。

  • September Fed decision: The platform’s top market was “Fed Decision in September?”, which generated $19.57 million in contract volume, up 33.9% week over week.
  • Esports activity: A Counter-Strike match between Team Falcons and Lynn Vision at BLAST Open Porto generated $10.97 million in contract volume. League of Legends matches were also heavily represented, accounting for five of the platform’s top 10 markets. KT Rolster vs. HANJIN BRION led that group with $8.49 million in contract volume. T1 vs. BNK FEARX generated another $8.33 million in contract volume, while Top Esports vs. LGD Gaming reached $7.82 million in contract volume.
  • Crypto and politics: Crypto remained another significant source of activity. The “What price will Bitcoin hit in August?” market generated $9.80 million in contract volume, although that was down 10.4% week over week.
  • Brazil’s presidential election market moved in the opposite direction, growing 22.8% to $8.65 million in contract volume.
  • 9 月美联储决议：该平台的首要市场是“9 月美联储决议？”，产生了 1957 万美元的合约交易量，环比增长 33.9%。
  • 电竞活动：在 BLAST Open Porto 赛事中，Team Falcons 与 Lynn Vision 之间的《反恐精英》比赛产生了 1097 万美元的合同交易量。《英雄联盟》比赛也占据了重要地位，占该平台前十大市场的五席。KT Rolster 对阵 HANJIN BRION 以 849 万美元的合同交易量位居该组之首。T1 对阵 BNK FEARX 产生了另外 833 万美元的合同交易量，而 Top Esports 对阵 LGD Gaming 则达到了 782 万美元的合同交易量。
  • 加密货币与政治：加密货币仍然是另一个重要的活动来源。“比特币在八月会达到什么价格？”市场产生了 980 万美元的合同交易量，尽管环比下降了 10.4%。
  • 巴西总统选举市场则朝相反方向变动，增长了 22.8%，合同交易量达到 865 万美元。

Polymarket US: MLB, MLB, and more MLB

Polymarket 美国站：MLB、MLB，以及更多的 MLB

Trading on Polymarket US through Aug. 29 was concentrated primarily in individual MLB games, along with NFL preseason markets.

截至 8 月 29 日，Polymarket 美国站的交易主要集中在单场 MLB 比赛以及 NFL 季前赛市场上。

The biggest market was Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres on Aug. 25, which generated $5.99 million in contract volume.

最大的市场是 8 月 25 日的匹兹堡海盗队对阵圣地亚哥教士队的比赛，产生了 599 万美元的合同交易量。

Two Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins markets followed closely behind, with the Aug. 24 game generating $4.87 million in contract volume and the Aug. 25 matchup producing another $4.39 million in contract volume.

波士顿红袜队对阵迈阿密马林鱼队的两场比赛紧随其后，其中 8 月 24 日的比赛产生了 487 万美元的合同交易量，8 月 25 日的对决又产生了 439 万美元的合同交易量。

Category breakdown

类别细分

  • Sports: Sports generated more than $3.07 billion in contract volume across Kalshi and Polymarket Global. Kalshi accounted for 88.6% of that volume, with $2.72 billion in contract volume, although its sports volume fell 3.8% week over week. Polymarket Global reached $348.84 million, up 29.6%.
  • Crypto: Kalshi also dominated crypto, generating $1.86 billion in contract volume, representing an 89.9% share. Polymarket Global recorded $208.35 million in crypto contract volume, down 11.1%. Polymarket US added another $145.29 million in contract volume.
  • Economics and finance: Economic markets were among the fastest-growing categories on both major platforms. Kalshi’s volume increased 35.0% to $178.58 million in contract volume, while Polymarket Global grew 25.6% to $29.79 million in contract volume. The gains came as traders increasingly focused on upcoming Federal Reserve policy decisions.
  • Politics: Political markets saw a pullback on both platforms. Kalshi’s political volume declined 28.9% to $58.99 million in contract volume, while Polymarket Global fell 26.6% to $53.59 million in contract volume. Kalshi held a 52.4% share of the combined category.
  • Culture and entertainment: Culture markets posted strong percentage gains despite remaining relatively small. Kalshi volume increased 34.9% to $4.25 million in contract volume, while Polymarket Global rose 28.2% to $5.77 million in contract volume. Polymarket Global held a rare majority in the category, accounting for 57.6% of combined volume.
  • 体育：Kalshi 和 Polymarket Global 的体育类合同交易量总计超过 30.7 亿美元。Kalshi 占据了该交易量的 88.6%，合同交易量为 27.2 亿美元，尽管其体育类交易量环比下降了 3.8%。Polymarket Global 达到 3.4884 亿美元，增长了 29.6%。
  • 加密货币：Kalshi 也在加密货币领域占据主导地位，产生了 18.6 亿美元的合同交易量，占比 89.9%。Polymarket Global 记录了 2.0835 亿美元的加密货币合同交易量，下降了 11.1%。Polymarket 美国站增加了另外 1.4529 亿美元的交易量。
  • 经济与金融：经济市场是两大平台上增长最快的类别之一。Kalshi 的交易量增长了 35.0%，达到 1.7858 亿美元；Polymarket Global 增长了 25.6%，达到 2979 万美元。随着交易者越来越关注即将到来的美联储政策决定，这些收益得以实现。
  • 政治：两个平台上的政治市场均出现回调。Kalshi 的政治类交易量下降了 28.9%，至 5899 万美元；Polymarket Global 下降了 26.6%，至 5359 万美元。Kalshi 在该合并类别中占据了 52.4% 的份额。
  • 文化与娱乐：尽管市场规模相对较小，但文化市场实现了强劲的增长百分比。Kalshi 的合约交易量增长 34.9%，达到 425 万美元；Polymarket Global 增长 28.2%，达到 577 万美元。Polymarket Global 在该类别中占据罕见的多数份额，占总交易量的 57.6%。

Growth of 25% in 6 weeks

六周内增长 25%

Weekly volume across Kalshi and Polymarket Global increased from $9.00 billion for the week ending July 26 to $11.26 billion for the week ending Aug. 30.

Kalshi 和 Polymarket Global 的每周总交易量从截至 7 月 26 日当周的 90.00 亿美元增至截至 8 月 30 日当周的 112.6 亿美元。

That’s a 25.1% increase in just six weeks.

这仅用六周时间就增长了 25.1%。

Kalshi’s share also steadily increased over the period:

在此期间，Kalshi 的市场份额也稳步上升：

  • July 26: 87.6% — $7.88B Kalshi vs. $1.12B Polymarket Global
  • Aug. 2: 88.3% — $8.42B vs. $1.11B
  • Aug. 9: 88.9% — $8.07B vs. $1.01B
  • Aug. 16: 88.7% — $8.67B vs. $1.11B
  • Aug. 23: 88.0% — $9.06B vs. $1.23B
  • Aug. 30: 90.3% — $10.17B vs. $1.09B
  • 7 月 26 日：87.6% — Kalshi 78.8 亿美元 vs. Polymarket Global 11.2 亿美元
  • 8 月 2 日：88.3% — 84.2 亿美元 vs. 11.1 亿美元
  • 8 月 9 日：88.9% — 80.7 亿美元 vs. 10.1 亿美元
  • 8 月 16 日：88.7% — 86.7 亿美元 vs. 11.1 亿美元
  • 8 月 23 日：88.0% — 90.6 亿美元 vs. 12.3 亿美元
  • 8 月 30 日：90.3% — 101.7 亿美元 vs. 10.9 亿美元

The latest week marked Kalshi’s strongest share of the six-week period and the first time it surpassed 90%.

最新一周标志着 Kalshi 在六周期间市场份额最强，也是其首次超过 90%。

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