Bloomberg播客：Warsh演讲重塑预期，油价飙升与通胀博弈

I think that the market had some expectations of him, especially after the earlier speeches that were that didn't let's just say they didn't hit the way that I think that they were intended to. And I think that he did a good job of redefining, here's my job, here's what I want to do. Here's what's here. It's what I think is wrong. Here's the parameters that I'm looking at. But I don't think that you're going to get the same kind of consistent talk and handholding that we've had since arguably the financial crisis.

Yeah, he made a big point of saying you don't call this forward guidance, but he did give a trail map so, so to speak, which sounded a lot like forward guidance. And it feels like the markets all reacted as if it were forward guidance. Do you think he's like weaning us off of it. You know it's one of those things where markets are always going to look for information. They're always trying to parse out what's going to happen.

Right. Remember there was a briefcase indicator, there was a sandwich indicator. There were kind of things. You were a gray tie back and back in the day. There were a lot of other things that people relied on besides speeches. And I think that, you know, there is there was some concern post the first two that there was not an attack on inflation. And I think that he is trying very hard to make that case. Adding a couple more variables makes it possible, I think, to say, you know, let's see what happens with the data that's coming right now.

August has been traditionally kind of up and down. And in fact, I think the last time there was a big fed panic move was because of data that came in in August. And then it sort of later was so bad as we got through September and October. So we'll see what happens. I think that if you don't see a huge change in the data or if it's mildly benign, it gives them room to wait a little bit longer. But we'll see. I don't know if they want to wait.

I know that there are a couple who don't, but there's still nine that do. So let's see. Let's see how that goes. Earnings have been better than good. Better than excellent quite frankly sticking on the second quarter here. Is that enough to support this market. Do you think here because this feels like a man the multiples market doesn't feel that expensive. Well it certainly has been. Right. So so absent the earnings growth and absent the fact that that's been fantastic, I think you would have much more trouble digesting all of the other things that are going on, including what's going on right now with oil prices.

But I think that what came out last week, and I think what came out of Nvidia was we see a strong, um, environment going forward, and we don't see that backing down the way that people have been concerned. Like we're already worrying about 2027, right. Because it's September about to be. And that's where we start to shift into what are next year's earnings. So I think that that was a good forward look. And I think that if you see things continuing and you're seeing good earnings on not just the technology front but on other fronts as well, and you're seeing pretty strong cash flow for the technology companies.

They're spending it for a lot of other companies. They're using it in different ways. So I I think that that looks pretty benign at the moment. And it has to be given where valuations are. I think you mentioned oil prices. And obviously this morning we were saying I just saw them today. They're up big. I know I mean it's it's shocking. And they've been going up for a while. Uh I'm wondering how you mentioned that. But how are you factoring that in an escalating tensions and as well.

So because the tensions have escalated and escalated a number of times, you've had very much of a roller coaster for the oil prices. It hasn't been a straight line higher. It's been higher and then lower and then higher. I think that this is a consequence of obviously what happened over the weekend and the concern that we are now going to be back in hostilities situation. I don't know that this was I don't know that that's going to happen.

I don't think anybody knows yet. We're not going to get we're not going to hear what the plan is. We're just going to see what happens. And the fact that there was kinetic action makes people much more concerned. And that's where you're seeing the rise in oil prices this morning. If that doesn't repeat, or if we get a week where things calm down, I think you see oil prices come down again. There was also some discussion over the weekend of how much oil got through, how much Saudi Arabian crude got through.

You know, it's hard for us to see that from the outside, because a lot of this is going on in the dark without transponders. And so we're working on how that goes. That took the oil price down last time. Let's see what happens going forward. Yeah boy. Just looking. And I hadn't even really paid attention to this morning. But boy crude oil is up 3.8% $3.17 a barrel now at $86.57 a barrel for WTI Brent, $91.18. Uh, so higher oil there.

So that kind of goes back to sir, what do you think the underlying inflation is and how does it impact just corporate earnings in general, do you think? So right now the biggest problem for inflation is probably more for consumers than it is for corporations. Depending on what you do and what sector you're in. Right. Because if transportation costs are a large part of what your what your cost basis is, if you're an airline, this is a problem.

If you are in other sectors, it's less of a problem. The transportation issue is going to it has been up and down. I think it's been problematic for consumers because it's mostly food and energy that are taking the brunt of this. Now that's probably going to continue. We've got some issues that are going on with the growing season because of weather. We've got some issues that are going on because of fertilizer. So higher commodity prices are something that is concerning.

The problem is that raising rates doesn't necessarily attack that except by lowering demand. And then that hurts your employment picture. So there's a lot of puts and takes, which is why I think the fed is not necessarily on as much on target to do something in September, because I do think that they see that tension.