Affirm CEO:美国消费者健康,Q1营收超预期
Affirm CEO Max Levchin Says American Consumers are Healthy | Bloomberg Businessweek
作为Fintech龙头财报后的关键指引,提供了关于美国零售消费韧性与信贷风险偏好的高频验证数据,对评估宏观微观交叉点有参考价值。
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts, radio news.
彭博音频工作室播客、广播新闻。
You're listening to Bloomberg [music] Business Week with Carol Masser and Tim Stenc on Bloomberg Radio.
您正在收听彭博广播的《彭博商业周刊》,主持人是卡罗尔·马瑟和蒂姆·斯滕克。
I'm watching shares of a firm. They jumped as much as 17% in trading to the highest intraday going back to September of 2025. This after the fintech company forecast revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. shares now higher by about 2.4% so giving up some of those gains. Separately, the company and Shopify expanded their global partnership to launch Shop Pay installments in Australia. We got Matt with us, Max Levchin.
我正在关注一家公司的股票。该股在交易中最高涨幅达17%,创下自2025年9月以来的盘中最高纪录。此前,这家金融科技公司公布的第一季度营收预测超过了分析师的平均预期。目前该股上涨约2.4%,回吐了部分涨幅。此外,该公司与Shopify扩大了全球合作伙伴关系,在澳大利亚推出Shop Pay分期付款服务。我们请到了Matt,Max Levchin。
He's the CEO of a firm. He joins us from our San Francisco bureau. Max, welcome back to Bloomberg Business Week Daily. Always good to see you. We're going to get to the results, but before that, I I want to talk about the consumer because you have this great real-time view using what many people would argue is, you know, crucial alternative data to understand the view of the consumer. How would you describe the American consumer right now?
他是该公司的首席执行官。他从我们在旧金山的办事处加入我们。Max,欢迎回到彭博商业周刊每日节目。很高兴再次见到你。我们将进入财报环节,但在此之前,我想谈谈消费者,因为你拥有很好的实时视角,利用许多人认为至关重要的替代数据来了解消费者的看法。你会如何描述当前的美国消费者?
You know, I think the affirmed consumer, the ones we interact with all the time and see is healthy. They are paying us back on time. They are shopping. They are taking advantage of the 0% deals that we also offer them. So all those things are still going swimmingly. I think it's impossible to ignore that gas prices are elevated for them just like anyone else. I think it inflation as you just heard chairman of the Federal Reserve tell us is still stubbornly sticking above its target.
你知道,我认为那些我们经常互动并看到的被确认的消费者状况良好。他们按时向我们还款。他们在购物。他们也在利用我们也提供给他们的零利率优惠。所以所有这些方面都进展顺利。我认为无法忽视汽油价格对他们来说就像对其他人一样处于高位。正如你刚刚听到的美联储主席所说,通胀仍然顽固地高于其目标水平。
I think they are stretching their budgets when they need to do it and frankly that actually accretes to the demand for a firm. So in in some ways we are asked by our consumers to step up to the plate and help them manage their family budgets more often in the current environment. But by and large they are healthy.
我认为他们在需要时会拉伸预算,坦率地说,这实际上增加了我们对一家公司的需求。所以在某种程度上,我们的消费者要求我们挺身而出,在当前环境下帮助他们更频繁地管理家庭预算。但总体而言,他们是健康的。
But what are they buying? Are they buying these high expensive items or are they using um this program to to buy things like you know to pay for um utility bills to do things like that? What are they buying and what are they using it for?
但他们买的是什么?他们是购买这些昂贵的商品,还是使用这个程序来购买像你知道的那样支付水电费之类的东西?他们买的是什么,用它来做什么?
Again in our portfolio by far we are called upon to finance home wares sporting equipment. There's a lot of back to school expenses that families incur right now. So everybody's buying something for their kids if those are going back to school. So that that's the bread and butter of a carbon has been for a very long time. Generally speaking, we are not huge fans of financing recurrent transactions and take steps to make sure our consumers don't give themselves false sense of security by stretching something that is a subscription into a longer subscription that's not a financially healthy decision.
在我们的投资组合中,我们迄今为止被要求为家居用品和运动器材提供融资。现在家庭面临着大量的返校支出。因此,如果孩子们要返校,每个人都在为孩子购买一些东西。所以,这一直是 Carbon 赖以生存的核心业务。一般来说,我们并不热衷于为经常性交易提供融资,并采取步骤确保消费者不会通过将订阅期延长至不健康的财务决策的更长订阅期而产生虚假的安全感。
As you know, we don't charge late fees specifically so we can align ourselves with our borrowers. When they borrow without a clear plan to pay us back, we will just lose money. And so we routinely orient our models to decline applications for loans that imply pushing off of the financial responsibility. We love our consumers to be financially responsible. We are here to help them be. So
如你所知,我们不收取滞纳金,以便与借款人保持一致。当他们在没有明确还款计划的情况下借款时,我们只会亏损。因此,我们通常将模型定向于拒绝那些暗示推迟财务责任的贷款申请。我们希望我们的消费者能够承担财务责任。我们来这里就是帮助他们做到这一点。所以
are you noticing any changes in the the rate of declines when somebody's applying to use a firm?
你是否注意到当有人申请使用某项服务时,拒绝率有任何变化?
The rate decline is something that we set. In fact, if you sort of wanted to super short crash course on how a firm works, we set an acceptable loss rate for us given macroeconomic signals that we get to see. That dictates the rate of approval, rate of decline as a function of course of the credit quality.
拒绝率是我们设定的指标。事实上,如果你想快速了解一家公司是如何运作的,我们会根据我们看到的宏观经济信号设定可接受的损失率。这在一定程度上决定了批准率和拒绝率,当然也取决于信用质量。
So it doesn't it doesn't change based on the individual who is applying for it.
所以它并不会因为申请人的不同而改变。
No, it absolutely changes. What I'm saying is that we work backwards from the question you posed. we decide what our acceptable loss rate will look like and that in turn sets or dictates what the approval rates will be. If you want to sort of take a very macro view of our position relative to the credit application set that we see every day, we're probably slightly more restrictive than we were this time last year, but again, nothing dramatic.
不,它绝对会变化。我的意思是,我们是根据你提出的问题反向推导的。我们决定可接受的损失率是什么样的,而这反过来设定或决定了批准率。如果你从宏观角度看待我们与每天看到的信贷申请组合相比的立场,我们可能比去年的这个时候稍微严格一些,但同样,没有什么戏剧性的变化。
So, how do you compare to the competition out there? Um, there's CLA, there's other ways, there's traditional credit cards as well. I mean, what sets you apart from that? Well, first of all, I think our results do set us apart. Uh I don't want to throw shade on anyone, but uh I think uh we've grown 30 plus% for the last 11 quarters of memory serves and uh for 12 months we've been consistently got profitable and many other accolades and we may be the only ones in the space that have been able to print these consistent results while growing really quickly while remaining profitable.
那么,你们与竞争对手相比如何?嗯,有 CLA,还有其他途径,也有传统的信用卡。我的意思是,你们与它们有何不同?嗯,首先,我认为我们的业绩确实让我们脱颖而出。我不想贬低任何人,但据我所知,在过去 11 个季度里(只要记忆还在),我们增长了 30% 以上,并且在过去 12 个月里一直保持稳定盈利,还获得了许多其他赞誉。我们可能是该领域唯一能够在保持快速成长的同时实现稳定盈利的公司。
At least we are a really well-managed company, I would argue, in terms of why merchants and consumers choose us much more frequently, I would argue, than our competitors. Twofold. One, we in fact add a lot of volume to our merchant partners while always making them look great. We don't charge late fees. We don't compound interest. We don't defer interest. We are extremely transparent to our borrowers what the cost will be. and we reward them for paying on time and even paying early, which is quite different from traditional financial services.
至少我认为,就为什么商户和消费者选择我们的频率远高于竞争对手而言,我们是一家管理非常出色的公司。原因有两点。第一,我们实际上为商户合作伙伴增加了大量交易量,同时始终让他们看起来很棒。我们不收取滞纳金,不复利计息,也不递延利息。我们对借款人极其透明,明确告知成本是多少。并且我们奖励按时还款甚至提前还款的行为,这与传统金融服务大不相同。
So merchants love us because we make them look great while making them more affordable. Consumers love us because we are so transparent because we create pockets of access to credit for them in a way that isn't just transparent, it's also responsible and they know it. We make it our business to make sure they understand that when we tell them no, it's not because we're finicky, but because we genuinely believe it's a bad idea for them to borrow more than they can afford to pay back.
所以商户喜欢我们,因为我们让他们看起来很棒,同时让他们负担更轻。消费者喜欢我们,因为我们非常透明,我们以一种不仅透明而且负责任的方式为他们创造信贷获取渠道,他们对此心知肚明。我们致力于确保他们理解,当我们拒绝他们时,并不是因为我们挑剔,而是因为我们真心认为,借入超出其偿还能力的金额对他们来说是个坏主意。
And most of them really appreciate that. And so I think we're quite different. We're we're a different breed in the DNA of the company is in underwriting and precision and transparency and you know frankly quality. So that that's what's driven our success in this in this market and beyond.
大多数人对此非常感激。因此我认为我们截然不同。我们是另一种类型的公司,公司的 DNA 在于承保、精准、透明以及坦率地说,质量。正是这些因素推动了我们在这一市场乃至更广泛领域的成功。
Perhaps one way you could differentiate from the competition would be to get a bank charter. You applied for a bank charter earlier this year. Can you give us the status of that application?
也许区分于竞争对手的一种方式之一是获得银行牌照。你今年早些时候申请了银行牌照。你能告诉我们该申请的进展状态吗?
Uh it it's in process. It's exactly the sort of thing that you're not done until you are. It's a very very rigorous process that the regulators make sure you have to go through without any shortcuts and we certainly appreciate that. Uh so I can't tell you very much about the state of the process other it is ongoing but it you know it it's a thing that we don't require to operate but we certainly would absolutely welcome being members of that particular club.
嗯,它正在处理中。这正是那种不到最后一步就不算完成的事情。这是一个非常严谨的过程,监管机构确保你必须毫无捷径地走完整个流程,我们对此表示赞赏。嗯,所以我不能告诉你太多关于进程状态的信息,除了它仍在进行中,但你知道的,这并不是我们运营所必需的,但我们绝对欢迎成为那个特定俱乐部的一员。
It certainly helps clarify exact our our exact uh regulatory status and over time it will feed into our cost of funds as bank of a firm should should be granted over time becomes a source of funding for our loan portfolio.
这肯定有助于澄清我们确切的监管状态,随着时间的推移,它将影响我们的资金成本,因为作为一家银行,随着时间推移被授予银行身份将成为我们贷款组合的资金来源。
So if you don't get it, it's fine.
所以如果你没拿到,也没关系。
Yeah, but we certainly hope to get it.
是的,但我们当然希望拿到。
Okay. Do you think you will get it?
好的。你认为你会拿到吗?
I think I will report back if and when we do.
我认为如果和当我们拿到时,我会再汇报。
Fair enough. Fair enough.
说得对。说得对。
You're trying, Tim. You're trying. And I love it. I love it. Um we all do our jobs.
你在努力,蒂姆。你在努力。我很喜欢。我很喜欢。嗯,我们都各司其职。
Yes, [laughter] exactly. Uh Max, I got to say you've been doing the company has been doing very well with um e-commerce. What's your strategy for instore spending?
是的,[笑声] 没错。嗯,马克斯,我得说你们公司在电子商务方面做得非常出色。你们在店内消费方面的策略是什么?
I a huge believer in relevance of a firm in store. It's actually something that I am personally very focused on. We just announced very minor reorg but allowing me personally to spend more time inside our innovation lab called ZT1 0 to1. And one of the many projects we're working on is making a firm in store even better than we've been online. Online we add 30% more volume through better conversion through access to credit to consumers.
我非常相信一家公司在店内的相关性。这实际上是我个人非常关注的事情。我们刚刚宣布了一个非常小的重组,让我个人能在我们名为 ZT1 0 to1 的创新实验室里花更多时间。我们正在进行的众多项目之一,就是让一家公司在店内变得比我们在网上做得更好。在网上,我们通过更好的转化率和为消费者提供信贷访问,增加了 30% 的成交量。
Offline we do more or less the same, but the participation in the offline world for us right now is quite dimminimous other than our affirm card. So we're going to invest heavily in making the card even better, even more rewarding. But we also have
在线下,我们大致做同样的事情,但目前我们在离线世界的参与度相当微小,除了我们的 Affirm 卡。因此,我们将大力投资使这张卡变得更好、更有回报。但我们也有
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