长鑫存储Q2扭亏为盈，营收同比增10倍
CXMT Passes Its First Earnings Test With Flying Colors | The China Show | 8/31/2026
长鑫存储作为全球重要存储芯片厂商，其业绩反转与新品量产进度直接反映半导体周期拐点，对产业链上下游估值有实质性指引作用，建议关注相关标的。
YVONNE: 9:00 A.M. IN SHANGHAI. YOU ARE WATCHING "THE CHINA SHOW ." I AM YVONNE MAN WITH DAVID INGLES DAVID: STOCKS ACROSS THE ASIA-PACIFIC ARE UNDER PRESSURE. OIL PRICES ON THE UP FOLLOWING NEW U.S. STRIKES ON IRAN. THE DOLLAR IS HOLDING ONTO GAINS. KEVIN WARSH HAD A HAWKISH DEBUT AT JACKSON HOLE. YVONNE: BEIJING UNVEILS ITS BOLDEST ATTEMPT IN YEARS TO END IT INDUSTRY DOWNTURN BY SUPPORTING BUILDERS AND HOME BUYERS. DAVID: ALSO AHEAD, A MEMORY CHIPMAKER PASSES ITS FIRST EARNINGS TEST WITH FLYING COLORS.
YVONNE：上海时间上午9点。您正在收看《中国秀》。我是YVONNE MAN，与DAVID INGLES一起。DAVID：亚太股市承压。受美国对伊朗新一轮打击影响，油价上涨。美元维持涨势。KEVIN WARSH在杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）的首次亮相态度鹰派。YVONNE：北京推出多年来最大胆的举措，通过支持开发商和购房者来终结房地产行业低迷。DAVID：此外，一家存储芯片制造商以优异成绩通过了首次盈利考验。
YVONNE: CHINA'S BIG BANKS REPORT HIGHER PROFITS, OFFERING FRESH EVIDENCE OF AN INDUSTRY RECOVERY. [MUSIC PLAYING] YVONNE: WE HAVE HAD A FEW DAYS TO DIGEST THE KEVIN WARSH SPEECH. I CANNOT REALLY FOCUS MORE ON CHINA. THINGS WERE GETTING MORE BRIGHT SPOTS WHEN IT COMES TO NOT JUST THE EARNINGS STORY BUT SOME PROPERTY STIMULUS. MAYBE CHINA MIGHT BE DOING BETTER TODAY. DAVID: IT LIKELY WILL OUTPERFORM THE TIMING OF THE DIFFERENTIATED INFO COMING OUT OF CHINA.
YVONNE：中国大型银行报告利润增长，为行业复苏提供了新证据。[音乐播放] YVONNE：我们已经花了几天的时间来消化KEVIN WARSH的演讲。我其实无法将更多注意力集中在中国身上。当不仅涉及盈利故事，还涉及一些房地产刺激措施时，情况正变得更加明朗。也许中国今天的表现会更好。DAVID：随着来自中国的信息逐步披露，其表现很可能优于时机因素。
MARKETS IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC ARE HAVING TO ADJUST LOWER GIVEN THE HAWKISH STANCE. THE DOLLAR COMPARED TO THIS TIME ON FRIDAY AT A MUCH STRONGER LEVEL. IT IS THE OIL PRICE WE ARE CONTENDING WITH TODAY WHICH IS THE NEW FACTOR TO CONTEND WITH. SOME OF THESE REPORTS ON THE NEW CHIP THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO DISSECT. WE HAVE A FEW MARKETS ACROSS THE ASIA-PACIFIC THAT ARE SHUT TODAY. AS YOU HAVE A LOOK AT FED PRICING, YES WE HAVE A JOBS REPORT TO GET THROUGH, ANOTHER SET OF INFLATION NUMBERS TO GET THROUGH BEFORE THE NEXT FED MEETING IN ABOUT TWO WEEKS BUT CURRENTLY IT IS BASE CASE, 60% PROBABILITY OF A HIKE IN SEPTEMBER.
鉴于鹰派立场，亚太市场不得不向下调整。与周五同一时期相比，美元处于更强水平。我们今天面临的是油价问题，这是一个需要应对的新因素。关于这款新芯片的一些报道是我们必须深入分析的。亚太地区有几个市场今天休市。当您查看美联储定价时，是的，我们还有就业报告要处理，在下一次约两周后的美联储会议之前，还有另一组通胀数据要处理，但目前基准情形是，9月加息的概率为60%。
THE KOSPI INDEX HAS THE FED STORY BEING DISCOUNTED WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE 2.7% DECLINE. TAIWAN IS SOMEONE FEELING THE PINCH. SOME INDIVIDUAL NAMES. TSMC IN TAIWAN. THREE BIG KOREAN NAMES DOWN 3%-3.5%. THE FED STORY GOING TO THE CHINA OPEN. YVONNE: PERHAPS THERE IS MORE UPSIDE WHEN IT COMES TO CHINA GIVEN THE INDEX ON FRIDAY WAS WOBBLY. FUTURES ARE STILL SORT OF IN THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY FOR CHINA. WE WILL SEE IF THEY GET CAUGHT IN THE WAY OF.
KOSPI指数下跌2.7%，表明美联储的故事已被折价计入。台湾有人感受到了压力。个别个股方面，台湾台积电（TSMC）。三家韩国主要公司下跌3%-3.5%。美联储的故事走向中国开盘。YVONNE：鉴于周五指数波动不定，中国在上涨空间方面或许还有更多潜力。中国期货仍处于负值区域。我们将看看它们是否会因此受阻。
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE STORY -- WE HAVE A GUEST SAYING THIS IS A COMPANY THAT TICKS ALL OF THE BOXES. A THEME HE WILL TALK ABOUT THAT PERHAPS IT NEEDS A DIFFERENT RATING. YOU BRING IT BACK TO THE FED. 60% ODDS WE MIGHT SEE A HIKE IN SEPTEMBER. YES, WE HEARD THE TALK. IS HE GOING TO FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE FED? THERE ARE STILL SOME DOUBTS LINGERING. DAVID: THE LIKES OF BRANDYWINE HAVE COME OUT AND SAID IT MIGHT BE BASE CASE BUT WE ARE NOT BUYING IT SO FAR.
故事的发展将很有趣——我们有嘉宾表示，这是一家符合所有条件的公司。他将谈及的一个主题或许是该公司需要不同的评级。你把它拉回到美联储。9月加息的概率为60%。是的，我们听到了这些言论。他会真的推动美联储行动吗？仍有一些疑虑 lingering。大卫：Brandywine 等机构已经表示这可能是基准情景，但我们目前并不采信。
LET'S SEE WHAT THE DATA LOOKS LIKE. THERE WAS A REPORTED SURPRISE RETURN TO PROFITS. MAYBE IT IS THE UNDERLYING INVOLUTION STORY THAT IS GOING AWAY. YVONNE: CHINESE BANKS, ALSO. DAVID: FRIDAY. IT IS SOMETHING THAT HAS RETURNED OVER THE LAST THREE QUARTERS. A LOT OF BRIGHT SPOTS INTO THE CHINESE OPEN. 1% ON THE PROPERTY STORY. YVONNE: LET'S GET TO EVERYTHING AND WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. AI DRIVEN DEMAND HELPED HEAL -- COMPETITION IN THE FOOD DELIVERY SPACE EASED.
让我们看看数据情况。此前有报道称利润出现意外回升。也许底层内卷的故事正在消退。Yvonne：中国银行也是如此。David：周五的数据。这是过去三个季度以来一直回归的趋势。中国股市开盘亮点众多。房地产板块上涨1%。Yvonne：让我们来看看一切以及我们所看到的情况。AI驱动的需求帮助修复了——食品配送领域的竞争有所缓和。
LET'S GET TO AVRIL HONG. LET'S START WITH CXMT. TENFOLD SURGE WHEN IT COMES TO REVENUE. IT SEEMS TO BE A SOLID, SOLID REPORT. AVRIL: STELLAR EARNINGS REPORT. FIRST SINCE BEING A PUBLICLY LISTED COMPANY. THE STOCK HAS RISEN 570%. IT HAS OVERTAKEN TENCENT AS CHINA'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY. IT DID NOT DISAPPOINT. YOU TALKED ABOUT THE TENFOLD SURGE IN REVENUE. IT WAS FORECASTING SOMETHING IN THE AREA OF $16 BILLION, IT BE THAT, COMING IN AT $22.4 BILLION.
让我们请出 Avril Hong。我们从长鑫存储（CXMT）开始。营收实现十倍增长。这似乎是一份非常扎实的财报。Avril：业绩报告非常出色。这是其成为上市公司以来的首次报告。股价已上涨570%。它已超过腾讯成为中国最有价值的公司。它没有让人失望。你提到了营收十倍的增长。它此前预测营收在160亿美元左右，实际达到了224亿美元。
IT TURNED A PROFIT TO 77.6 BILLION YEN. AMOUNTS GLOBAL CONSTRAINTS SEEN IN THE MEMORY MARKET. IT IS A MAJOR, MAJOR PLAYER WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE GLOBAL RANKINGS. WHEN IT COMES TO PRICING AND DEMAND, IT HAS SEEN A LOT OF THAT COMING THROUGH FOR ITS PRODUCTS. IT EVEN SEES THIS CONTINUING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS YEAR. THE UPCOMING FLEET OF PRODUCTS -- DAVID WAS TALKING ABOUT THE NEXT GENERATION MEMORY PRODUCT IS ON TRACK FOR MASS PRODUCTION.
它实现了776亿日元的利润。全球内存市场看到的限制因素。在全球排名中，它是一个主要的大玩家。在定价和需求方面，其产品看到了大量需求涌入。它甚至认为这种趋势将持续到今年下半年。即将推出的产品阵容——David 谈到下一代内存产品正按计划进行量产。
WE KNOW HOW THAT IS GOING INTO THE UPCOMING PHONE. THERE IS MORE OF THAT POSITIVE SIGNAL IN THE PIPELINE FOR A COMPANY THAT OF COURSE COURSE HAS BEEN ABLE TO SHOW IT IS TURNING THE POLICY BACKING INTO PROFITS. DAVID: THE LPDDR6. WE KNOW IT IS GOOD ANYWAY. 10X, FINE. I WAS LESS IMPRESSED BY THAT BECAUSE WE KNOW THAT HAS BEEN WEAK IN THAT RETURNED TO A PROFIT. IT WAS A BIGGER SURPRISE AND SOMETHING THAT COULD MOVE THE NEEDLE.
我们知道它将如何进入即将到来的手机。对于一家当然能够将政策支持转化为利润的公司来说，管道中有更多积极信号。David：LPDDR6。无论如何我们知道它很好。10倍，不错。我对这一点印象不深，因为我们要知道它在之前表现疲软，现在才恢复盈利。这是一个更大的惊喜，也是能够推动市场变化的因素。
TAKE US THROUGH THE NUMBERS. AVRIL: SECOND-QUARTER QUARTER EARNINGS, POSITIVE SURPRISE IN THE SENSE THAT ANALYSTS WERE PROJECTING A LOSS OF 846 MILLION YEN. IT CAME IN AT ¥2.7 BILLION OF PROFIT, $400 MILLION IN THE QUARTER THROUGH. A LOT OF THIS WAS ATTRIBUTED TO HOW IT IS SEEN. THIS THREE-WAY BATTLE WHEN IT COMES TO THE DELIVERY BUSINESS IN CHINA. GIVEN THE CRACKDOWN BY CHINESE AUTHORITIES, THE COMPETITION HAS EASED A FAIR BIT.
带我们看看具体数据。艾薇尔：第二季度财报，出现正面意外，因为分析师此前预计将亏损8.46亿日元。实际结果为盈利27亿日元，折合4亿美元。这很大程度上归因于其在中国配送业务中所处的三方竞争格局。鉴于中国当局的整顿行动，竞争已有所缓和。
THAT HAS HELPED THE REVENUES, HELPED SQUEEZE WHEN IT COMES TO SOME E-COMMERCE PLATFORMS, FOOD DELIVERY PLATFORMS. PART OF WHAT HELPED WAS HOW IT EASED ITS OVERSEAS EXPANSION TO SOME EXTENT. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CAVEATS WHEN IT COMES TO THE CFO TALKING ABOUT THE LEVEL OF SUBSIDIES. THEY THINK IT WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE LEVEL IN 2024. THERE IS A SENSE THAT WHEN IT COMES TO THE EXTENT OF WHICH WE MIGHT SEE THE CONSENSUS UPGRADE EVEN THE LIKES OF BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE THINGS THAT IS UNLIKELY.
这有助于提升收入，并在某些电商平台和外卖平台方面带来挤压效应。部分助力因素在于其在一定程度上放缓了海外扩张步伐。关于首席财务官谈及补贴水平时，有几个需要注意的地方。他们认为补贴水平将远高于2024年的水平。市场普遍感觉，即便彭博情报（Bloomberg Intelligence）等机构上调共识预期，这种情况也不太可能发生。
DAVID: THANK YOU SO MUCH. AVRIL HONG IN SINGAPORE FOR US. WE WILL GET THE EARNINGS REACTION TODAY AROUND SOME BIG NAMES. A BIG PIECE OF THE PUZZLE WE ARE TRACKING TODAY, PROPERTY AND SOME ADJACENT SECTORS AFTER CHINA UNVEILED AROUND 7:00 P.M. LOCAL TIME ON FRIDAY MAY BIG BOOST TO FINANCING SUPPORT FOR HOMEBUYERS AND DEVELOPERS. THEY INCLUDE HOMEBUYERS BEING ABLE TO BORROW FOR TERMS FROM 30 AND UP TO 40 YEARS. AN OVERHAUL OF THE WAY HOMES ARE SOLD.
大卫：非常感谢。艾薇尔·洪（Avril Hong）从新加坡为我们发回报道。今天我们将关注一些重量级人物的财报反应。我们今天追踪拼图中的重要一块是房地产及相关板块，因为中国在周五当地时间晚上7点左右宣布了一项针对购房者和开发商的融资支持重大提振措施。其中包括允许购房者贷款期限从30年延长至最高40年，以及对房屋销售方式进行彻底改革。
YVONNE: LET'S BRING IN CHRISTIE HUNG, OUR REAL ESTATE ANALYST. WE ARE FINALLY GETTING SOME SORT OF SIGNS OF SUPPORT. HOW MEANINGFUL DO YOU THINK THIS COULD BE?
伊冯娜：让我们请出我们的房地产分析师克里斯蒂·洪（Christie Hung）。我们终于看到了一些支持迹象。你认为这有多大的意义？
IT WOULD BE A GREAT IMPACT FOR VOLUME. IT MIGHT BOOST SENTIMENT FOR THE UPCOMING SEASON IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER BUT IS IT A REALLY POWERFUL PACKAGE THAT WILL MOUNT A TURNING POINT? IF WE ARE STILL CAUTIOUS. DAVID: WHY EXTEND THE MORTGAGE FROM 30 TO 40 YEARS? WHAT DOES THAT ACHIEVE? KRISTY: WHEN WE ARE LOOKING AT HOMEBUYERSS' CONCERNS, THE MONTHLY MORTGAGE PAYMENT IS ONE OF THEM. EXTENDING IT TO YEARS YOU LIMIT THE MORTGAGE PAYMENT.
这对成交量会有很大影响。它可能会提振9月和10月 upcoming 季节的市场情绪，但这是否是一个能促成转折点的真正强力方案？如果我们仍然保持谨慎的话。大卫：为什么将抵押贷款期限从30年延长到40年？这能达到什么目的？克里斯蒂：当我们审视购房者的担忧时，每月按揭还款额是其中之一。将其延长至多年可以限制每月的按揭还款额。
WHAT WE ARE SEEING FROM THE MARKET IS THIS IS GOING TO HELP IMPROVE INCREMENTAL AFFORDABILITY. DESPITE THE OVER 40% DECLINE IN HOME PRICES, IF YOU LOOK AT THE TIER-1 CITIES, THE RATIO IS 40 TIMES OR 20 TENTHS. IT IS STILL AT THE TOP END OF ASIA. YVONNE: ONE OF THE THINGS I THINK WAS QUITE INTERESTING WAS THERE WAS A PIVOT FOR DEVELOPERS TO SELL COMPLETED HOMES. THEY HAVE TO BE PRESALE. THAT EXACERBATED THE CRISIS. HOW IMPACTFUL COULD THAT BE?
我们从市场上看到的是，这将有助于改善边际购买力。尽管房价下跌超过40%，但如果看一线城市，比率仍是40倍或20倍（注：原文为20 tenths，疑指2.0或特定语境下的倍数，此处保留原意逻辑），这仍然是亚洲的最高端水平。伊冯娜：我认为相当有趣的一点是，开发商转向销售现房。他们过去必须预售。这加剧了危机。这一举措的影响会有多大？
KRISTY: THIS IS GOING TO REQUIRE TIME TO IMPLEMENT. FREE SALE FUNDING USED TO BE A KEY SOURCE OF FUNDING FOR DEVELOPERS. FOR THIS OVERHAUL TO BE IMPLEMENTED, IT REQUIRES A LOT OF CHANGES ON DEVELOPERS' OPERATIONS. IT HELPS HOMEBUYER CONFIDENCE. A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE NOT BUYING HOMES OR PIVOTING TO BUYING SECONDHAND HOMES. IT HELPS TO BOOST COMPLETION FOR CHINA IF WE ARE SELLING MORE NEW HOMES. SECONDHAND HOMES OR NOT BOOSTING GDP.
克里斯蒂：这将需要时间来实施。自由销售资金曾经是开发商的关键资金来源。要实现这一全面改革，需要对开发商的运营进行大量调整。这有助于增强购房者的信心。许多人要么不买房，要么转向购买二手房。如果我们卖出更多新房，将有助于推动中国的完工率。而二手房并不能提振GDP。
YVONNE: THANK YOU. KRISTY HUNG OUR CHINA REALIST ANALYST. COMING UP WE WILL TALK MORE ABOUT KEVIN WARSH'S JACKSON HOLE SPEECH, STRENGTHENING BETS ON ANY RATE HIKE. WHY THEY SEE THE FED COULD STILL HOLD STEADY. WE ARE COUNTING DOWN THE OPENING FOR TRADE. FUTURES HAVE BEEN A NEGATIVE TERRITORY THIS MORNING. WHAT WE HEARD FROM REAL ESTATE. WE ARE DOWN .6%. THIS IS "THE CHINA SHOW."
伊冯娜：谢谢。克里斯蒂·洪是我们驻中国房地产分析师。接下来我们将进一步讨论凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔年会上的演讲，以及市场对加息押注的加强。他们为何认为美联储仍可能维持稳定。我们正倒数贸易开盘时间。期货今早一直处于负值区域。我们从房地产市场听到了什么。目前下跌0.6%。这是《中国秀》节目。
WE SHOULD NOT INDULGE A REGIME WHICH MARKET PARTICIPANTS ARE LOOKING PRIMARILY TO THE FED FOR THEIR NEXT TRADE. THE FED IS A DECISION-MAKING AND MAKE CHOICES AMID ON SEARCH. THE DATA UPON WHICH WE DRAW MUST BE RELEVANT, TEMPERING YES, ACCURATE, AND AS POSSIBLE. THE FED'S PRICE STABILITY OBJECTIVE OF 2% AS MEASURED BY THE PCE PRICE INDEX AND IS A FIRM, FIXED TARGET. ACHIEVING BOTH SIDES OF OUR MANDATE IS NOT AN EITHER-OR PROPOSI
我们不应纵容一个政权，市场参与者主要依赖美联储来决定其下一笔交易。美联储是在信息搜寻中做出决策并权衡选择的机构。我们所依据的数据必须具有相关性、经过审慎考量、准确无误，并尽可能可靠。美联储以PCE价格指数衡量的2%物价稳定目标是一个坚定且固定的目标。实现我们使命的两方面并非非此即彼的选择
原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力