里士满联储主席：经济韧性源于消费者借贷未来支出

There could be a backlash on data centers. And maybe that would be the perfect thing to do economically because we want overbuild the way we would have otherwise. Overbuild or maybe there. Well, and now we're going to under build. So yes, it could have a big impact, but I do not have I need to I forecast skills to help me figure out how big this thing's going to be, because you're trying to meet a very significant moving target.

Have you tried asking ChatGPT what it thinks? Just type it in, just ask it. I've also asked you to try to write a speech for me, and I didn't think it did. It did a very good job. Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Weisenthal. Joe, we're still in Jackson Hole. That's right. Plenty to talk about. We just got the speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, which I think most people would describe as hawkish, although maybe there's kind of a gap in between the Hawk and the ish part.

Sure. And there's still plenty of questions about the direction of the US economy and monetary policy in general. So we should talk a little bit more about it. We should. And beyond that, you know, there's many theoretical questions out there. What is the neutral rate of interest? What is the role of AI on productivity. And all of that is very interesting. Where does the term premium end? But also it'd be interesting to know what's got.

The central bankers are hearing about actual businesses right now and like what's going on on the ground on the ground color. Okay. And there is one man that we go to for on the ground color. We have the perfect guest. Of course, we're going to be speaking with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin. So Tom, thank you so much for coming back on all thoughts. Great to be back with you. I think it's my third year in a row. You're in Jackson Hole.

Oh we appreciate it. Yeah. No. And you they let you outside of the hotel room. We get the two times in the back. So. That's right. The production values have gone up. I will say okay. So let's just start very simply Warsh his speech. What'd you think? I mean, he does a great job. He's a great speaker. And, and I thought it was a very authentic speech. I mean, Kevin laid out, I think, how he sees the world. He laid out, how he sees the economy.

The folks I've talked to, you know, appreciate the clarity and the the thing, and I and I personally, thought I had a very accurate sense of the economy. So I was very much aligned with what he said, and I thought he said it. Well, so he said he everything except, you know, so he said, okay, inflation seems to be going in the wrong direction right now. He described policy as not restrictive. So then you fill in the blanks and it's like, okay, that means rate hikes.

But he didn't quite say that just for you. In terms of as you see things, a dude agree about inflation and the stance of policy. But then more importantly then what do we do about it? Yeah. So, the economy solid. I think he said that. Yeah. And you can definitely see that in the GDP numbers and the consumer spending numbers. I mean, it's been crazy this year that gas prices went up and consumer spending accelerated. It's been crazy that you have all this uncertainty and artificial intelligence spending has led business investment.

You know, almost double versus this historic thing. So there's a lot of momentum in the economy. Jobs market seems to have stabilized, unemployment rates low. So all that's good. And I'm not saying inflation is just ahead in the wrong direction. It's just not in the right place okay. And that's I think that's not in the right place. I also would say the job market's good but it's not frothy. Yeah I mean we did slow hire.

The fire thing continues. And so that's where the the policy thing will figure out. I said the number one thing people have asked me after his speeches. Well I guess that makes, you know, September that tells you something for September. And I said, well, I listen to his speech and I'm pretty sure he doesn't like forward guidance. Right. So I don't think you should take any forward guidance from a speech from a guy who doesn't give forward guidance.

And I think it's probably can't help the problem. No, I know, but it's I mean, I think you can talk about the economy in a very good way. And then you can talk about forecasts. If you choose not to do forward guidance, you don't do forward guidance. I want to talk more about forward guidance. But since you mentioned the resilience of the economy, do you have a working theory for what's going on here? Because I think to your point earlier, it's surprised a lot of people that even with prices still pretty high gas going up, all the economic uncertainty, consumers keep spending, they do keep spending.

And I would compare it to coming out of, the Great Recession, where, I had the Great Recession. You had people who lost the jobs, lost their house, lost their car savings, destroyed, need to be rebuilt for retirement. We had five, six, seven years. The secular stagnation where people weren't spending the way you thought they would. I compare it to Covid. We thought for two months it was going to be terrible, but then coming out of it, people had money in their pockets.

You had stimulus, you had spending money you hadn't spent. You had equity values up here at home values up. And I think you had a mindset that just says, I'm bound and determined to spend. And so we all know the wealthy people are spending because they have more wealth, but even those with less wealth. What I hear is a very creative consumer figuring out ways to, to find money, to spend money to borrow from the future.

You can see the finding money in the growth of private label, the move to Walmart and Dollar stores. You know, if you look at their, results. But people aren't carrying insurance. There's a story in the journal a couple of weeks ago about more people living from home. You know, you and I think more people living from home. Oh, my God, my kids are coming back, I think. Wait a second. Those are people not paying rent, and they're using that money to spend on something else.

And, I've talked to, auto lenders who talk about people being 60 days delinquent, not 120 days delinquent because they don't want to look. They need to find the money, but they don't want to lose the car. I've talked to, gas providers who say people aren't paying the gas bill during the summer because no one's going to have a problem with gas in the summer. It's the winter that matters. So people are finding ways to effectively borrow from the future savings rates down.

And I think that's what's keeping the spending going. And underneath it all is this just positive energy to keep spending. And I really do think as long as the markets are healthy and people have jobs, they're going to keep find a way to spend. That was very good sort of summary of one of the one of the engines of the economy that's clearly continuing to fire. We were we traveled with you. Was that 2023 or 2024 that we were in Mount Airy? 24, I think 20 or 24 in at that point, one of the thing, you know, we were talking about sort of rural housing issues, rural childcare issues, but also and one of the things that came up was, the scarcity of skilled trades.

And now I have to imagine it's much worse because, you know, if you're a skilled electrician, you probably are working, at least in theory, the AI boom, etc.. We talked to Austin Goolsbee maybe two days ago, and he's like, yes, we hear a lot of people complaining about the, scarcity of skilled trades and the AI buildout. People are always complaining. I'm not. He wasn't sure how much is actually related to data center and AI construction.

What's your read on the scarcity of parts, materials, and labor for general things and the degree to which I investment is crowding out and making life more difficult for other types of industry? Yeah. So, it's been a monumental const