投资者押注脱发治疗市场爆发,多家药企竞逐新药
Investors Betting on a Hair Loss Treatment Boom
Drugmakers found a promising cure for the obesity epidemic, and their stocks were rewarded for it. Now investors are looking over a new crop of companies tackling more aesthetic problems and one that plagues, you know, some of the men in our lives, baldness. Pattern hair loss affects an estimated fifty million men and thirty million women. So women's problems are loss with women is an issue. And that's in The US, but there have been no proven new no new approved treatments since the late nineteen nineties.
制药商们找到了治疗肥胖症流行病的有效药物,他们的股价也因此受益。现在,投资者们正关注一批新公司,它们致力于解决更多美学问题,以及一个困扰我们生活中某些男性的问题——秃顶。雄激素性脱发影响约五千万男性和三千万女性。所以女性脱发问题也是一个问题。这是在美国的情况,但自上世纪九十年代末以来,一直没有经过验证的新获批治疗方法。
For more on this potential market, joining us in person in studio right now is Bloomberg equities reporter, Avalon Pernell. Avalon not suffering from this problem. Also excellent hair. However You know, all three of us have I have the worst, but it's fine. Avalon, terrific story. One of the most read stories on the terminal over the weekend. Walk us through these drugs. Walk us through the boom for these stock prices.
关于这个潜在市场,我们现在邀请彭博社股票记者Avalon Pernell来到演播室。Avalon没有这个问题,头发也很好。不过,你知道,我们三个人中我的头发最差,但没关系。Avalon,这是个很棒的故事。这是周末终端上阅读量最高的故事之一。请为我们介绍这些药物,以及这些股价上涨的情况。
Are these drugs going to be on shelves or prescribed by by doctors anytime soon? Not just yet. We're gonna have to be looking into the 2027, so next year before we're gonna see any of these drugs potentially come to market. But they could come as soon as next year? Exactly. As soon as next year. It's already it's basically September on Tuesday. So It is a good point. It is a good point. I mean, the two that are actually in the lead right now would be Cosmo, which could have a product on the shelves by early next year if they get an approval, and Verodermix, which is also set to potentially go ahead and apply.
这些药物会很快上架或由医生开处方吗?还不会。我们得等到2027年,也就是明年,才可能看到这些药物上市。但可能最快明年就能上市?没错,最快明年。现在差不多已经是九月的周二了。说得对,说得对。目前领先的两家公司是Cosmo,如果获得批准,他们的产品可能在明年初上架;还有Verodermix,也准备可能继续申请。
So definitely something that we'll be keeping an eye on, especially when you consider the fact that veridermics only actually became public this year. So very quick. But the thing about GLP ones is they kind of fundamentally changed how people were treating obesity. Is there anything fundamentally different? Is the technology different? Has it evolved at all? Yes. Okay. So at least when it comes to the lay of the land, to say the least, you have three different areas that these companies are kind of looking to treat.
所以这绝对是我们会关注的事情,尤其是考虑到Veridermics今年才上市。所以进展很快。但关于GLP-1类药物,它们从根本上改变了人们治疗肥胖的方式。这些新药有什么根本不同吗?技术不同吗?有没有进化?是的。好的。所以至少从整体格局来看,这些公司主要瞄准三个不同的治疗领域。
Cosmo is looking at, like, a lotion that you would add to your hair. Veradermics is creating a pill. And more specifically, at least for the women's side, there hasn't actually been an FDA approved treatment for hair loss that is a pill. Most of these women have had to take it off label, so that's definitely something that least analysts that we've spoken to have said could be a really big deal as well. And Abzai actually potentially has the biggest differentiated product.
Cosmo正在研究一种类似护发乳液的产品,而Veradermics则正在开发一种药丸。更具体地说,至少在女性脱发治疗方面,目前还没有FDA批准的口服脱发药物。大多数女性不得不超说明书使用,所以这绝对是分析师们认为可能意义重大的方向。而Abzai可能拥有最具差异化的产品。
They're looking at a shot that you would take maybe every six months or so. And then that would just keep your hair on your head. And they believe, especially given the fact that GLP one's kinda already proved that people are willing to take shots. Well, this is a big game changer. People are willing to use needles now. Right? So this does open badly. I will say six months is not a daily shot. So at least if you told me every six months I had to get a shot, it's not that big of a deal.
他们正在研究一种大约每六个月注射一次的针剂,这样就能让头发保持在头上。他们认为,尤其是考虑到GLP-1类药物已经证明了人们愿意接受注射,这将是一个重大变革。人们现在愿意使用针头了,对吧?所以这确实打开了市场。不过我要说,六个月一次不是每天打针,所以至少如果告诉我每六个月打一次针,这不算什么大事。
I'd probably go on to a doctor then. Avalon, what kind of health issue or side effects could there be from these drugs? Obviously, that's top of mind if I can go out and, I don't know, fly to Turkey and get a procedure or rub some Which has hysterically become so synonymous with hair transplants. But, yes, if you're not going to Turkey and you're gonna try some of these drugs, what could be the downsides? Exactly. I mean, it's still a minoxidil type of product.
那我可能会去看医生。Avalon,这些药物可能带来什么样的健康问题或副作用?显然,如果我能去——我不知道——飞到土耳其做个手术,或者涂点什么——这已经成了植发的代名词——那副作用肯定是首要考虑的问题。但如果你不去土耳其,而是尝试这些药物,可能有什么缺点?没错。我的意思是,它本质上还是米诺地尔类的产品。
So it's definitely some of the same, like, side effects that you're seeing potentially where it could be, like, heart palpitations, potentially some changes to your sex drive, and that's something that, obviously, a lot of people are not interested in. However, they're hoping that as more data comes because it is a longer going product that you're not gonna have as many issues as you would with taking something else that would be a little bit different that's already on the shelves right now.
所以肯定会有一些类似的副作用,比如心悸、性欲变化,这显然是很多人不想要的。不过,他们希望随着更多数据的出现——因为这是一个长期使用的产品——你不会像使用市面上已有的其他产品那样遇到那么多问题。
Obviously, one of the reasons people are going down this road is because of the value of these GLP one drugs. The GLP one drugs do insane things for comorbidities based on recent studies. Right? If you've got high blood pressure, if you've got obesity, it takes down all of these other risk factors for your health. That is something it seems to me someone is more willing to pay out of pocket, sometimes as much as $1,200 a month for those drugs.
显然,人们走这条路的原因之一是GLP-1类药物的价值。根据最近的研究,GLP-1类药物对合并症有惊人的效果,对吧?如果你有高血压、肥胖,它能降低所有这些其他健康风险因素。在我看来,这就是为什么有人愿意自掏腰包,有时每月高达1200美元来购买这些药物。
I don't I think it's gonna be a very small subset of population that's gonna pay something similar for hair loss. This is actually really an interesting discussion that we're also having with the analysts as well because they mentioned how at the end of the day, for the a lot of these folks who are going over to Turkey or choosing to have, like, various other treatments that you can have at, like, men's health clinics today, they're putting a lot of money into this.
我不认为会只有一小部分人群愿意为脱发治疗支付类似费用。这实际上是一个非常有趣的讨论,我们也在和分析师们进行,因为他们提到,最终,对于许多去土耳其或选择在男性健康诊所接受各种其他治疗的人来说,他们在这上面投入了大量资金。
So if you already have, like, a cash pay customer that is willing to spend maybe a $120 or to go to Turkey for 4,000, $6,000 Or to get it done in The US. I have several friends who've done it. It's about $20,000. It's 15 to 20. Yeah. Well, the one thing, though, when I think about some of these drugs, though, you're on it for life. Right? If I take the shot every six months, my hair looks great. Maybe I wanna That's a good question.
所以,如果你已经有一个愿意支付大约120美元的自费客户,或者去土耳其花费4000到6000美元,或者在美国完成治疗。我有几个朋友做过,大约2万美元,是1.5万到2万。是的。不过,当我想到这些药物时,有一点是,你需要终身服用,对吧?如果我每六个月打一针,我的头发看起来很好。也许我想……这是个好问题。
Duck some of those side effects, my hair falls out, presumably. This is also true, but I that's actually something that I found to be really interesting talking to one person who owns a clinic and is actually already giving treatments, not necessarily these because they're not approved just yet, is he mentioned how despite the fact that you would expect, like, maybe if the economy goes up or down, people would be more interested that for a lot of people, this is a vanity issue that they really care about.
如果出现一些副作用,我的头发可能会掉,大概是这样。这也是事实,但我发现与一位诊所老板的交谈非常有趣,他已经在提供治疗,但不一定是这些药物,因为它们尚未获批。他提到,尽管你可能预期经济起伏会影响人们的兴趣,但对许多人来说,这是一个他们非常在意的虚荣问题。
You don't want your hair to fall out. So they tend to be fairly sticky, and they're gonna stick with that. Even if the economy has a downturn, they're still willing to pay. That's very interesting. I mean, I think about this is one of the few issues that I have seen the men in my life really get upset about and are willing to pay money. If you start, you know, losing No. My hairline is not as good as it could be, to be clear, but it is true.
你不想让头发掉光。所以他们往往相当坚持,会继续使用。即使经济低迷,他们仍然愿意支付。这非常有趣。我的意思是,我认为这是我见过的少数几个能让男性真正感到不安并愿意花钱的问题之一。如果你开始脱发……不,我的发际线不是很好,但这是事实。
Like 12. Your hairline is great. But it is something, though, again, with with kind of the novelty again, though, it is interesting to think about the this whole notion of a k shaped economy. If you can afford Yeah. To look better, why not? If there's a drug, even if it's out of pocket and it's a few thousand dollars. I mean, that's the other thing. It's what is it saying? You're not ugly. You're just poor. Is this are we gonna have, like, a k shaped hairline if these drugs come into play?
比如12。你的发际线很好。但这也是,再次强调,考虑到新颖性,思考K型经济这个概念很有趣。如果你能负担得起,是的,让自己看起来更好,为什么不呢?如果有药物,即使需要自费且花费几千美元,我的意思是,这是另一回事。这说明了什么?你不是丑,你只是穷。如果这些药物上市,我们会不会出现K型发际线?
It's a great question. I mean, me and my editors were also talking about this. I mean, we have GLP ones. Potentially, we're gonna have new hair drugs as well. Like, what does the world look like if we're all kind of looking perfect to a certain degree? You can be skinny, and you can have hair forever in theory.
这是个很好的问题。我的意思是,我和我的编辑们也在讨论这个。我们有了GLP-1类药物,未来可能还会有新的生发药物。如果我们在某种程度上都看起来完美,世界会是什么样子?理论上,你可以保持苗条,也可以永远拥有头发。
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